{ "dek": "Miami is the likeliest No. 1 seed, the SEC could put five teams in, and two unbeatens aren't safe.", "kind": "projection", "slug": "week-9", "as_of": "Tuesday, November 3, 2026", "field": [ { "ap": 1, "bid": "ACC champion", "cfp": null, "abbr": "MIA", "conf": "ACC", "next": [ { "opp": "Notre Dame", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.414, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Duke", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.895, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Virginia Tech", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.939, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Boston College", "date": "Nov. 28", "p_win": 0.987, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "The only team that's close to a lock. Miami is 8-0 with four ACC road wins, including 33-20 at Wake Forest, its likeliest opponent in Charlotte, and ESPN's strength-of-record measure has it first in the country. It has survived two close ones in the last three weeks (43-35 over Florida State, 38-35 at North Carolina), which is the only real knock.", "Saturday's trip to Notre Dame is the one game we make it an underdog in, and losing it wouldn't cost Miami its spot, only its grip on the No. 1 seed. The other three are home games against Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College." ], "path": "Projected ACC champion", "seed": 1, "team": "Miami", "p_bye": 0.8223, "p_conf": 0.7303, "record": "8-0", "p_field": 0.987, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "6-0", "proj_record": "12-1" }, { "ap": 2, "bid": "SEC champion", "cfp": null, "abbr": "UGA", "conf": "SEC", "next": [ { "opp": "Ole Miss", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.54, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Missouri", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.828, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "South Carolina", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.74, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Georgia Tech", "date": "Nov. 28", "p_win": 0.985, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "Georgia has one of the best sets of wins in the country: 20-17 at Alabama, 27-8 over Florida in Jacksonville, 41-13 over Oklahoma. The blemish is a 27-24 home loss to Auburn on Oct. 17, the kind the committee notices but rarely holds against a conference champion.", "It's 5-1 in the SEC with three league games left, starting Saturday night at Ole Miss, where we give it 54 percent. Win that and the road to Atlanta is Missouri at home and a trip to South Carolina. Georgia reaches the SEC title game in 77 percent of our simulations and wins the league in 43." ], "path": "Projected SEC champion", "seed": 2, "team": "Georgia", "p_bye": 0.5688, "p_conf": 0.4289, "record": "7-1", "p_field": 0.8418, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "5-1", "proj_record": "11-2" }, { "ap": 3, "bid": "Big 12 champion", "cfp": null, "abbr": "UTAH", "conf": "Big 12", "next": [ { "opp": "BYU", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.658, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Arizona", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.578, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "TCU", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.722, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "West Virginia", "date": "Nov. 27", "p_win": 0.907, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "Utah is 8-0 and has beaten everyone in front of it, including Houston 21-13 and Cincinnati 49-25 on the road last week, but its schedule ranks 83rd by ESPN's measure. That's why a one-loss Big 12 champion is still a bye team in our projection while a one-loss Utah that misses the title game is on the bubble.", "The season turns on the next two weeks: BYU at home Saturday (we give Utah 66 percent) and a trip to Arizona (58). Utah reaches the Big 12 title game in Arlington in 87 percent of simulations, and the champion is in automatically." ], "path": "Projected Big 12 champion", "seed": 3, "team": "Utah", "p_bye": 0.3161, "p_conf": 0.4783, "record": "8-0", "p_field": 0.7561, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "5-0", "proj_record": "12-1" }, { "ap": 6, "bid": "Big Ten champion", "cfp": null, "abbr": "IU", "conf": "Big Ten", "next": [ { "opp": "USC", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.74, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Washington", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.798, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Purdue", "date": "Nov. 28", "p_win": 0.935, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "The defending national champion is 8-1, and its only loss was 19-15 at home to Ohio State. The offense has been ordinary lately (13-6 in overtime at Michigan, 23-16 over Minnesota) with quarterback Josh Hoover playing through a right arm injury, but the defense hasn't allowed more than 19 points since September.", "Indiana has a bye Saturday, then USC, a trip to Washington and Purdue. It reaches Indianapolis in 80 percent of our simulations, more than Ohio State or UCLA, because its remaining schedule is the easiest of the three. We project it to win the rematch there." ], "path": "Projected Big Ten champion", "seed": 4, "team": "Indiana", "p_bye": 0.3872, "p_conf": 0.4772, "record": "8-1", "p_field": 0.8195, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "5-1", "proj_record": "11-2" }, { "ap": 4, "bid": "Notre Dame (top 12)", "cfp": null, "abbr": "ND", "conf": "Independent", "next": [ { "opp": "Miami", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.586, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Boston College", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.989, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "SMU", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.901, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Syracuse", "date": "Nov. 28", "p_win": 0.933, "where": "at" } ], "note": [ "Notre Dame's only loss is 28-24 at BYU, and ESPN's index rates it the best team in the country. The new rule means the Irish don't need an at-large spot at all, just a top-12 ranking, which they get in 84 percent of our simulations.", "Saturday night against Miami decides how high they're seeded, not whether they're in: we give them 59 percent, and ESPN reports they'll be without linebacker Drayk Bowen (ankle). After that it's Boston College, SMU and a trip to Syracuse. With no conference title game to win, an 11-1 Notre Dame is likelier to host a first-round game than to get a bye." ], "path": "In automatically if it finishes in the committee's top 12", "seed": 5, "team": "Notre Dame", "p_bye": 0.0487, "p_conf": null, "record": "7-1", "p_field": 0.8404, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "0-0", "proj_record": "11-1" }, { "ap": 9, "bid": "At-large", "cfp": null, "abbr": "ALA", "conf": "SEC", "next": [ { "opp": "LSU", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.428, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Vanderbilt", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.931, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Chattanooga", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.999, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Auburn", "date": "Nov. 28", "p_win": 0.884, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "Two losses, both to good teams (Georgia 20-17 at home, Tennessee 26-10 on the road), and wins at Kentucky (45-17) and Mississippi State. Alabama's schedule is the seventh-hardest in the country by ESPN's measure, which is why it has the best at-large odds of anyone, 82 percent, even though it's 6-2.", "Saturday at LSU is the swing game: we make LSU a 57 percent favorite. After that Alabama is favored by a lot against Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn, so a 9-3 Alabama is the most common outcome and still gets in most of the time." ], "path": "At-large", "seed": 6, "team": "Alabama", "p_bye": 0.296, "p_conf": 0.1819, "record": "6-2", "p_field": 0.8166, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "4-2", "proj_record": "9-3" }, { "ap": 10, "bid": "At-large", "cfp": null, "abbr": "TEX", "conf": "SEC", "next": [ { "opp": "Missouri", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.693, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "LSU", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.413, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Arkansas", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.962, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Texas A&M", "date": "Nov. 27", "p_win": 0.699, "where": "at" } ], "note": [ "Texas owns one of the best wins on the bubble: 24-23 over Ohio State in Week 2, plus 20-17 at Tennessee and 34-27 over Ole Miss. It also lost to Oklahoma in Dallas and to Florida at home, both by three, and those losses are why it's 3-2 in the SEC.", "The next two weeks are on the road at Missouri and at LSU, then Arkansas and a trip to Texas A&M. Texas makes the field in 71 percent of our simulations; 9-3 is its likeliest finish, and that's usually enough with these wins." ], "path": "At-large", "seed": 7, "team": "Texas", "p_bye": 0.2286, "p_conf": 0.1056, "record": "6-2", "p_field": 0.7112, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "3-2", "proj_record": "9-3" }, { "ap": 12, "bid": "At-large", "cfp": null, "abbr": "MISS", "conf": "SEC", "next": [ { "opp": "Georgia", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.46, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Oklahoma", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.681, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Wofford", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.999, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Mississippi State", "date": "Nov. 27", "p_win": 0.866, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "Ole Miss beat LSU 32-24 and Missouri 31-3 and lost on the road at Florida (52-28) and Texas (34-27). The 24-point loss at Florida is the most lopsided defeat by any team in our field.", "Georgia comes to Oxford on Saturday night (we give Ole Miss 46 percent). Then it's at Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State. Ole Miss is in 74 percent of the time; a win over Georgia would make it close to safe and put it in the SEC title race." ], "path": "At-large", "seed": 8, "team": "Ole Miss", "p_bye": 0.2205, "p_conf": 0.0906, "record": "6-2", "p_field": 0.7431, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "4-2", "proj_record": "9-3" }, { "ap": 11, "bid": "At-large", "cfp": null, "abbr": "OSU", "conf": "Big Ten", "next": [ { "opp": "Oregon", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.692, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Northwestern", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.778, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Nebraska", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.635, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Michigan", "date": "Nov. 28", "p_win": 0.83, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "Ohio State has the wins (19-15 at Indiana, 31-14 at Iowa) but not its quarterback. Julian Sayin hurt his throwing arm in the Indiana game and the school says he's out indefinitely; with freshman Luke Fahey starting, Ohio State lost 30-18 at USC last week. We've lowered its rating four points for the rest of the season.", "Even so, it controls its Big Ten path: win out against Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska on the road and Michigan and it plays Indiana again in Indianapolis. It's in 68 percent of our simulations and wins the league in 33." ], "path": "At-large", "seed": 9, "team": "Ohio State", "p_bye": 0.322, "p_conf": 0.3282, "record": "6-2", "p_field": 0.6812, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "4-1", "proj_record": "10-3" }, { "ap": 15, "bid": "At-large", "cfp": null, "abbr": "LSU", "conf": "SEC", "next": [ { "opp": "Alabama", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.572, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Texas", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.587, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "Tennessee", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.647, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Arkansas", "date": "Nov. 28", "p_win": 0.93, "where": "at" } ], "note": [ "LSU's two losses are on the road and close (32-24 at Ole Miss, 35-34 at Kentucky), and its wins include Clemson, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. What it lacks is a marquee win, and its finish is the third-hardest left in the country by ESPN's measure: Alabama and Texas at home, then at Tennessee.", "We make LSU a slight favorite in all three, which is why it stays in at 63 percent. Win two of them and it's very likely in; lose two and it's out." ], "path": "At-large", "seed": 10, "team": "LSU", "p_bye": 0.2241, "p_conf": 0.1322, "record": "6-2", "p_field": 0.63, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "3-2", "proj_record": "9-3" }, { "ap": 14, "bid": "At-large", "cfp": null, "abbr": "WAKE", "conf": "ACC", "next": [ { "opp": "Merrimack", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.997, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "SMU", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.619, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Georgia Tech", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.9, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Duke", "date": "Nov. 28", "p_win": 0.744, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "Wake Forest is 7-1 and its only loss is 33-20 at home to Miami. It has won at Louisville, Purdue and NC State, but it hasn't beaten a team that's currently ranked, and the committee will notice.", "It's our last team in, at 58 percent, barely ahead of Kentucky. Its remaining games (Merrimack, at SMU, at Georgia Tech, Duke) are all winnable, and reaching the ACC title game, which it does in 81 percent of simulations, gives it a second way in: beat Miami in Charlotte and the bid is automatic." ], "path": "At-large, and the likeliest ACC title-game opponent for Miami", "seed": 11, "team": "Wake Forest", "p_bye": 0.112, "p_conf": 0.2304, "record": "7-1", "p_field": 0.5827, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "5-1", "proj_record": "11-2" }, { "ap": 20, "bid": "Group of Six", "cfp": null, "abbr": "BOIS", "conf": "Pac-12", "next": [ { "opp": "Colorado State", "date": "Nov. 7", "p_win": 0.924, "where": "at" }, { "opp": "Oregon State", "date": "Nov. 14", "p_win": 0.74, "where": "vs" }, { "opp": "San Diego State", "date": "Nov. 21", "p_win": 0.941, "where": "vs" } ], "note": [ "Boise State is 7-1 and 4-0 in the new Pac-12, and its only loss is 34-27 at Oregon in the opener. It also beat Memphis and won at Fresno State, and it got past Texas State 46-45 last weekend.", "It gets the Group of Six bid in 75 percent of our simulations, well ahead of New Mexico (11) and UTSA (8). Oregon State on Nov. 14 and the Pac-12 title game on Dec. 4 are the danger. Because the committee is unlikely to rank it in the top 12, it would be seeded 12th and play at the No. 5 seed." ], "path": "Projected Group of Six bid (highest-ranked team from the six leagues), seeded last as an automatic qualifier", "seed": 12, "team": "Boise State", "p_bye": 0, "p_conf": 0.7453, "record": "7-1", "p_field": 0.7518, "prev_seed": null, "conf_record": "4-0", "proj_record": "11-1" } ], "intro": [ "The selection committee releases its first rankings of the season tonight at 7 p.m. ET. Before it does, here's where we think the 12-team field ends up on Selection Day, Sunday, Dec. 6, after simulating every remaining game 20,000 times and applying this year's rules.", "This is a projection of the committee's final choices, not a ranking of who's best today. The rules changed this year: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions are in wherever they're ranked, the Group of Six bid goes to the highest-ranked team from those six leagues, champion or not, and Notre Dame is in if it finishes in the top 12.", "Miami makes the field in 99 percent of our simulations and gets a bye in 82 percent. Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana and Alabama all land between 82 and 84 percent. The surprises are the unbeatens: Utah is in 76 percent of the time, but UCLA, 8-0 and fifth in the AP poll, is in only 40 percent and is projected out. The last at-large spot is close to a coin flip between Wake Forest (58 percent) and Kentucky (56).", "Saturday could rearrange a lot of this: Miami at Notre Dame, BYU at Utah, Georgia at Ole Miss, Alabama at LSU, Oregon at Ohio State and Kentucky at Tennessee. The next edition is Sunday morning, with those results and the committee's first ranking." ], "label": "After Week 9", "model": { "sims": 20000, "benchmark": 17.4, "adjustments": { "OSU": -4 }, "fpi_updated": "2026-11-03T09:00Z" }, "races": [ { "cols": [ "Title game", "Title" ], "conf": "ACC", "game": "ACC Championship Game: Saturday, Dec. 5, noon ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte", "text": [ "Miami is 6-0 in the league with Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College left and has already won at Wake Forest, so it reaches Charlotte in essentially every simulation. Wake Forest (5-1) is the likeliest opponent; SMU (4-2) can make it interesting by beating Wake on Nov. 14. Saturday's Miami game at Notre Dame doesn't count in the ACC standings." ], "projected": "Miami", "contenders": [ { "team": "Miami", "p_conf": 0.7303, "record": "8-0", "conf_record": "6-0", "p_title_game": 1 }, { "team": "Wake Forest", "p_conf": 0.2304, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "5-1", "p_title_game": 0.8139 }, { "team": "Louisville", "p_conf": 0.0255, "record": "5-3", "conf_record": "4-2", "p_title_game": 0.0998 }, { "team": "SMU", "p_conf": 0.0117, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "4-2", "p_title_game": 0.0736 } ] }, { "cols": [ "Title game", "Title" ], "conf": "Big Ten", "game": "Big Ten Championship Game: Saturday, Dec. 5, 8 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis", "text": [ "Three teams for two spots. UCLA (5-0) is unbeaten but closes at Michigan and against USC, and we make it an underdog in both. Indiana (5-1) has the easiest path left. Ohio State (4-1) beat Indiana and holds the tiebreaker, but it has to win out without its starting quarterback to use it. The likeliest title game is Ohio State against Indiana, 39 percent of simulations; UCLA against Indiana is next at 31." ], "projected": "Indiana", "contenders": [ { "team": "Indiana", "p_conf": 0.4772, "record": "8-1", "conf_record": "5-1", "p_title_game": 0.8039 }, { "team": "Ohio State", "p_conf": 0.3282, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "4-1", "p_title_game": 0.5618 }, { "team": "UCLA", "p_conf": 0.125, "record": "8-0", "conf_record": "5-0", "p_title_game": 0.4656 }, { "team": "Oregon", "p_conf": 0.0313, "record": "5-3", "conf_record": "3-2", "p_title_game": 0.0655 }, { "team": "USC", "p_conf": 0.0192, "record": "7-2", "conf_record": "4-2", "p_title_game": 0.0478 } ] }, { "cols": [ "Title game", "Title" ], "conf": "Big 12", "game": "Big 12 Championship Game: Friday, Dec. 4, 8 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas", "text": [ "Utah (5-0) hosts BYU (4-1) on Saturday, and that game settles most of this. Texas Tech (4-1) doesn't play Utah and is favored in each of its last four, which is why it reaches Arlington more often than BYU does. Houston and Arizona need help. The Big 12 runner-up is a bubble team at best." ], "projected": "Utah", "contenders": [ { "team": "Utah", "p_conf": 0.4783, "record": "8-0", "conf_record": "5-0", "p_title_game": 0.8668 }, { "team": "Texas Tech", "p_conf": 0.275, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "4-1", "p_title_game": 0.5689 }, { "team": "BYU", "p_conf": 0.1431, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "4-1", "p_title_game": 0.319 }, { "team": "Houston", "p_conf": 0.0529, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "3-2", "p_title_game": 0.1169 }, { "team": "Arizona", "p_conf": 0.0272, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "3-2", "p_title_game": 0.0628 }, { "team": "Oklahoma State", "p_conf": 0.0132, "record": "5-3", "conf_record": "3-2", "p_title_game": 0.037 } ] }, { "cols": [ "Title game", "Title" ], "conf": "SEC", "game": "SEC Championship Game: Saturday, Dec. 5, 4 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta", "text": [ "Georgia and Kentucky lead at 5-1, but Kentucky still has to go to Tennessee and Missouri, so Georgia is the clear favorite to get to Atlanta. Behind them, Alabama and Ole Miss are 4-2 and four teams are 3-2. The SEC title matters less for getting in than for seeding: the league makes five teams in our projected field, and six would not be a shock." ], "projected": "Georgia", "contenders": [ { "team": "Georgia", "p_conf": 0.4289, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "5-1", "p_title_game": 0.7698 }, { "team": "Alabama", "p_conf": 0.1819, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "4-2", "p_title_game": 0.3477 }, { "team": "LSU", "p_conf": 0.1322, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "3-2", "p_title_game": 0.2436 }, { "team": "Texas", "p_conf": 0.1056, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "3-2", "p_title_game": 0.2028 }, { "team": "Ole Miss", "p_conf": 0.0906, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "4-2", "p_title_game": 0.1945 }, { "team": "Kentucky", "p_conf": 0.0367, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "5-1", "p_title_game": 0.1734 } ] }, { "cols": [ "League title", "Gets the bid" ], "conf": "Group of Six", "game": "One bid for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt, champion or not", "text": [ "Boise State has the best résumé and the strongest team of the group. New Mexico (7-1) and Liberty (7-1) are the likeliest to win their leagues, but their schedules are too soft to outrank a one-loss Boise. UTSA and North Texas, both 4-0 in the American, meet on Nov. 15 in what amounts to a play-in for that league's title game." ], "projected": "Boise State", "contenders": [ { "team": "Boise State (Pac-12)", "p_conf": 0.7518, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "4-0", "p_title_game": 0.7453 }, { "team": "New Mexico (Mountain West)", "p_conf": 0.1138, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "4-0", "p_title_game": 0.7067 }, { "team": "UTSA (American)", "p_conf": 0.0814, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "4-0", "p_title_game": 0.2791 }, { "team": "Liberty (CUSA)", "p_conf": 0.0355, "record": "7-1", "conf_record": "4-0", "p_title_game": 0.8255 }, { "team": "North Texas (American)", "p_conf": 0.0088, "record": "6-2", "conf_record": "4-0", "p_title_game": 0.3955 } ] } ], "rules": [ "Twelve teams. Five get in automatically: the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, wherever they're ranked, and the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt, whether or not it won its league. Notre Dame is also in if the committee ranks it in the top 12. The other six or seven spots go to the next highest-ranked teams.", "The bracket follows the committee's final ranking straight down. The top four seeds get first-round byes, and an automatic qualifier ranked outside the top 12 is placed at the bottom of the seeding. Seeds 5 to 8 host first-round games on campus on Dec. 18 and 19. There's no reseeding and no moving teams to avoid rematches.", "The No. 1 seed picks its quarterfinal bowl and its semifinal site, then No. 2 and No. 3 pick their quarterfinal bowls and No. 4 gets the one that's left. The quarterfinals are the Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30) and the Cotton, Peach and Rose bowls (Jan. 1); the semifinals are the Orange Bowl (Jan. 14) and the Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15). The title game is Monday, Jan. 25, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, the Raiders' home.", "What changed from 2025: the automatic bids used to go to the five highest-ranked conference champions, which let two Group of Six champions in ahead of ACC champion Duke, and Notre Dame had no guarantee. The 13-member committee, chaired by Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek, ranks the top 25 on Nov. 3, 10, 17 and 24 and Dec. 1, and sets the field on Sunday, Dec. 6, between noon and 3 p.m. ET. When teams are close, it's told to weigh championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and results against common opponents." ], "title": "College Football Playoff projection after Week 9, 2026", "bubble": { "also": "Next four: Tennessee (19 percent), USC (12), Florida (12) and Missouri (11). New Mexico (11) is the likeliest Group of Six team if Boise State stumbles.", "last_in": [ { "note": "The Ohio State win is one of the best on the bubble; losing to Oklahoma and to Florida at home is what keeps it there. At Missouri and at LSU in the next two weeks.", "team": "Texas", "record": "6-2", "p_field": 0.7112 }, { "note": "Four games left without Julian Sayin, starting with Oregon on Saturday. Win out and it plays for the Big Ten title.", "team": "Ohio State", "record": "6-2", "p_field": 0.6812 }, { "note": "Alabama and Texas at home, then at Tennessee. Two wins in three should do it.", "team": "LSU", "record": "6-2", "p_field": 0.63 }, { "note": "One loss, to Miami, but no wins over ranked teams. The ACC title game is a second chance.", "team": "Wake Forest", "record": "7-1", "p_field": 0.5827 } ], "first_out": [ { "note": "Second in the country in ESPN's strength of record, with road wins at Texas A&M, South Carolina and Oklahoma, but an underdog at Tennessee on Saturday and at Missouri on Nov. 21. Win both and it's in.", "team": "Kentucky", "record": "7-1", "p_field": 0.5617 }, { "note": "Favored in every remaining game, but the 37-24 loss at Cincinnati and a soft schedule leave it needing to win the Big 12 or come very close in Arlington.", "team": "Texas Tech", "record": "7-1", "p_field": 0.4077 }, { "note": "Unbeaten, with a 17-15 win at Oregon, but ESPN's index rates it 28th and it closes at Michigan and against USC. Win out and it's in; one loss probably isn't fatal; two would be.", "team": "UCLA", "record": "8-0", "p_field": 0.401 }, { "note": "Owns the win over Notre Dame and a loss at UCF. Saturday at Utah is its season.", "team": "BYU", "record": "7-1", "p_field": 0.3231 } ] }, "method": [ "We simulate the rest of the season 20,000 times. A game's expected margin is the gap between the two teams' ratings in ESPN's Football Power Index plus 2.5 points for the home team (none at a neutral site), with a standard deviation of 14 points, and each simulation nudges every rating up or down a little (standard deviation 3 points) because the ratings are estimates too. FCS opponents are rated at -20.", "Conference title games come from the simulated standings: the top two by conference winning percentage (the Sun Belt's two division winners), with ties broken by head-to-head and then by rating, a shortcut for each league's longer tiebreaker list. Power 4 and MAC title games are at neutral sites; the others are at the top seed's stadium.", "To pick a field in each simulation we need a stand-in for the committee. Ours ranks teams by wins above what a playoff-level team (the 12th-best FPI rating) would expect against the same schedule at the same sites, plus a small credit for team strength and half a win for a Power 4 title, and it counts a title-game loss as half a loss. Then the format's rules are applied. It isn't a model of the committee and won't match its weekly rankings; it's a way of counting how often each team ends up in.", "The field on this page is our call, built from those counts: each Power 4 league's most likely champion, the most likely Group of Six team, Notre Dame, then the at-large teams that make the field most often. The seeds are our read of how the committee would order those teams. They follow the simulations' average ranks, except for Notre Dame, which our stand-in underrates because it has no 13th game to play.", "One adjustment this week: Ohio State's rating is four points lower than FPI's because Julian Sayin is out indefinitely. Four points is about the gap between FPI's number for Saturday's game against Oregon and the market's." ], "season": 2026, "bracket": { "final": { "site": "Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas", "when": "Monday, Jan. 25, 2027" }, "notes": [ "Seeds straight from our projected ranking; the higher seed hosts in the first round. The bowl assignments are our guess. This year the No. 1 seed picks its quarterfinal bowl and its semifinal site, then No. 2 and No. 3 pick their quarterfinal bowls, and No. 4 gets what's left. We've assumed each picks the site nearest home, which would put Miami's semifinal in its own stadium." ], "semifinals": [ { "bowl": "Orange Bowl", "from": [ "Peach Bowl winner", "Fiesta Bowl winner" ], "site": "Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.", "when": "Jan. 14" }, { "bowl": "Sugar Bowl", "from": [ "Cotton Bowl winner", "Rose Bowl winner" ], "site": "Caesars Superdome, New Orleans", "when": "Jan. 15" } ], "first_round": [ { "site": "Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind.", "when": "Dec. 18 or 19", "away_seed": 12, "home_seed": 5 }, { "site": "Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.", "when": "Dec. 18 or 19", "away_seed": 11, "home_seed": 6 }, { "site": "Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas", "when": "Dec. 18 or 19", "away_seed": 10, "home_seed": 7 }, { "site": "Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss.", "when": "Dec. 18 or 19", "away_seed": 9, "home_seed": 8 } ], "quarterfinals": [ { "vs": "winner of No. 9 Ohio State at No. 8 Ole Miss", "bowl": "Peach Bowl", "seed": 1, "site": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta", "when": "Jan. 1" }, { "vs": "winner of No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Notre Dame", "bowl": "Fiesta Bowl", "seed": 4, "site": "State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.", "when": "Dec. 30" }, { "vs": "winner of No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Texas", "bowl": "Cotton Bowl", "seed": 2, "site": "AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas", "when": "Jan. 1" }, { "vs": "winner of No. 11 Wake Forest at No. 6 Alabama", "bowl": "Rose Bowl", "seed": 3, "site": "Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.", "when": "Jan. 1" } ] }, "closing": [ "Saturday's games that move the field most, with our chance for the favorite: Notre Dame over Miami (59 percent), Utah over BYU (66), Georgia at Ole Miss (54), LSU over Alabama (57), Ohio State over Oregon (69) and Tennessee over Kentucky (66). For the Group of Six bid, watch UTSA at Florida Atlantic on Thursday night and Boise State at Colorado State on Saturday.", "The next edition is Sunday morning, Nov. 8." ], "edition": 1, "sources": [ { "url": "https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2026/8/6/sc-aug-2627", "name": "College Football Playoff: Selection committee prepares for 2026-27 season (Aug. 6, 2026)" }, { "url": "https://collegefootballplayoff.com/bracket", "name": "College Football Playoff: 2026-27 bracket and how the field is set" }, { "url": "https://www.waff.com/2026/02/04/cfp-announces-quarterfinal-semifinal-dates-bowl-sites-next-two-seasons/", "name": "WAFF: CFP announces quarterfinal and semifinal dates and bowl sites" }, { "url": "https://www.footballscoop.com/2026/08/06/college-football-playoff-announces-format-change-power-4-notre-dame", "name": "FootballScoop: College Football Playoff announces format change" }, { "url": "https://ncaa.com/news/football/article/2026-02-03/how-12-team-college-football-playoff-will-work-teams-schedule-bids", "name": "NCAA.com: How the 12-team College Football Playoff will work" }, { "url": "https://fbschedules.com/college-football-conference-championship-games", "name": "FBSchedules: 2026 conference championship games" }, { "url": "https://global.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/40204947/how-does-college-football-playoff-work-rules-dates-format-selection-committee-voting", "name": "ESPN: How does the College Football Playoff work" }, { "url": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50360739/cfp-playoff-2026-bubble-watch-week-9", "name": "ESPN: College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 9" }, { "url": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50321732/projecting-2026-playoff-top-12-week-9-cfp", "name": "ESPN: College Football Playoff top 12 projection after Week 9" }, { "url": "https://www.news4jax.com/sports/2026/10/21/ohio-state-qb-julian-sayin-out-indefinitely-after-injuring-throwing-arm/", "name": "AP via News4Jax: Ohio State QB Julian Sayin out indefinitely" }, { "url": "https://www.thescore.com/ncaaf/news/3462492/college-football-playoff-sticking-with-12-team-format", "name": "TheScore: CFP sticking with 12-team format (Indiana's title win over Miami)" }, { "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/fitt/v3/sports/football/college-football/powerindex?season=2026", "name": "ESPN college Football Power Index (data feed)" }, { "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/football/college-football/standings?group=80&season=2026", "name": "ESPN FBS standings and scoreboard (data feeds)" }, { "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/rankings", "name": "ESPN: AP Top 25 (data feed)" }, { "url": "https://www.raidersdaily.xyz/scripts/cfp/project.py", "name": "Raiders Daily simulation script" } ], "through": "Games through Saturday, Oct. 31", "committee": null, "races_note": "", "corrections": [], "committee_note": [ "The committee's first Top 25 comes out tonight, Tuesday, Nov. 3, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. We'll add it here when it's out; until then the ranks on this page are the AP poll's." ], "published_at": "2026-11-03T21:41:56.349672+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-11-03T21:41:56.349672+00:00" }