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College football

College football · Week 4

College picks: Week 4, 2026

Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.

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This week 0-0 18 picks

Season 4-5

Week 4 has six ranked-vs-ranked games: No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee, No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida, No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan, No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU, No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC and No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State. The biggest numbers on the board are Miami -41.5 against Central Michigan, Texas Tech and SMU both around -34.5, and Ohio State and Notre Dame at -27.5. Week 3 went 4-5, and the losses that stung were laying four-touchdown numbers on the theory that starters would stay in; the underdogs getting 21 or more went 3-0. So the approach this week is to take the points in the huge spreads unless the favorite's defense, not its bench, is what covers the number. Ohio State is the one exception on that basis. In the ranked games, the preference is for the side the efficiency numbers like better than the market does.

Friday, September 25

  1. Northwestern at 5 Indiana Fri 8:00 PM ET

    Northwestern +21

    Indiana is 0-3 against the spread despite winning by 36, 55 and 38, which says it eases off once games are decided. Northwestern is 2-0 against the number, allows 12.5 points per game and just beat Colorado 41-7 with Aidan Chiles accounting for five touchdowns. The line opened 23.5 and has already come down; 21 on a short week is still more than the matchup warrants.

Saturday, September 26

  1. 1 Texas at 14 Tennessee Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Tennessee +5.5

    Texas is averaging 5.3 yards per play, 78th nationally, against Tennessee's 6.6, and Arch Manning managed 4.9 yards per attempt against UTSA. Steve Sarkisian says Texas is down about three defenders, with edge Colin Simmons and DL Justus Terry both dealing with foot and ankle issues. Getting 5.5 at home in Neyland with the better offense is the right side of the number.

  2. Sam Houston at 11 Texas Tech Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Sam Houston +33.5

    Texas Tech is 0-3 against the spread, failed to cover -45.5 against Abilene Christian and has won its last two by 11 and 2. Sam Houston is 3-0 against the number, including one-score losses at Troy and to Tulsa. The line opened 37.5 and has fallen to 33.5 to 34.5, and it is still asking a team that has not blown anyone out to win by five touchdowns.

  3. Wake Forest at 16 Louisville Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Louisville -12.5

    Gio Lopez hurt his hip at Purdue, took roughly 20 hits against Miami and was visibly hobbling, and Wake ran 16 times for 22 yards in that game. Louisville is 3-0 against the spread and scored 41 on SMU. The letdown after the SMU win is the risk, but a limited quarterback behind a line that cannot run the ball makes 12.5 a fair number to lay.

  4. Illinois at 7 Ohio State Sat 12:00 PM ET

    Ohio State -27.5

    This is the exception to fading big favorites: Ohio State covered -49.5 and -52.5 by allowing 3 points each time, so its margin comes from the defense rather than from starters staying in. Illinois arrives for its first road game with its offensive line thinned out, with Brandon Henderson out and TJ McMillen reported lost for the year. At -27.5 the Buckeyes need about 34-6, which is what their defense has been producing.

  5. 3 Notre Dame at Purdue Sat 2:00 PM ET

    Purdue +27.5

    Notre Dame -29.5 lost last week when the Irish won 27-10, and this is a similar number against a better offense. Purdue has scored at least 36 in every game and ranks third nationally in passing at 366.7 yards per game. Notre Dame is thin at safety, with Luke Talich questionable with a wrist injury and Brauntae Johnson out for a couple of weeks. Purdue's defense will give up points, but its passing game keeps a late cover alive at 27.5.

  6. 4 Ole Miss at 21 Florida Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Ole Miss +3

    The market has moved Florida from -1.5 to -3.5, but the efficiency numbers favor Ole Miss: its offense ranks 8th in EPA per play while Florida's passing game ranks 120th in EPA per pass. The worry is Florida back Jadan Baugh at 8.5 yards per carry against an Ole Miss run defense giving up an SEC-worst 159 yards per game, and Kewan Lacy is a game-time decision. Ole Miss has a bye next week, and getting 3 with the better offense is the value side.

  7. Oklahoma at 2 Georgia Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Oklahoma +14

    A 14-point spread with a 43.5 total implies roughly 29-15, and Oklahoma's defense ranks second in SP+ and just held New Mexico to 6. The Oklahoma offense is the problem, 24 points in two games and three John Mateer interceptions, but in a low-scoring game two touchdowns is a lot of cushion. Oklahoma has a bye next, so there is no Texas lookahead to split its attention.

  8. 15 Utah at Iowa State Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Utah -7.5

    This opened Utah -11.5 and dropped four points within a day with no public explanation. Utah allows 8 points per game, has won by an average of 33 and brings the 22nd-ranked SP+ defense against an Iowa State offense rated 81st. Iowa State may be without cornerback Jaheim Singletary after he left on a backboard against Bowling Green. The move looks like a buying opportunity rather than information.

  9. 17 Iowa at 18 Michigan Sat 3:30 PM ET

    Iowa +4.5

    With a total of 37.5, 4.5 points is a lot of margin, and Iowa has allowed 13 points in three games. Michigan's own offense has scored 13 and 17 against Western Michigan and Oklahoma, and it is missing right tackle Andrew Sprague. The risks are Iowa's running backs, with Kamari Moulton and LJ Phillips Jr. uncertain, and Ohio State coming to Iowa City next week. In a game likely decided by a field goal, the points matter more than the lookahead.

  10. 25 Houston at GA Southern Sat 4:00 PM ET

    GA Southern +18.5

    Houston is on its second straight road trip after a 28-26 loss at Texas Tech, with UCF next. Its pass defense allows 253.3 yards per game, second worst in the Big 12, and Georgia Southern led Jacksonville State into the fourth quarter last week. SP+ puts the gap at roughly 18 points before any home edge, so 18.5 is at the top of the fair range.

  11. Wisconsin at 13 Penn State Sat 5:00 PM ET

    Penn State -9.5

    This opened Penn State -11.5, and at -9.5 the Nittany Lions are laying under 10 against an offense that ranks 91st in SP+ and 101st in rushing. Penn State allows 7.3 points per game, and Rocco Becht has 9 touchdown passes without an interception. Wisconsin's defense is legitimate, but a 44.5 total and a Wisconsin offense that cannot run make scoring 14 in State College a stretch.

  12. C Michigan at 6 Miami Sat 6:30 PM ET

    C Michigan +41.5

    Miami plays at Clemson next week and just lost receiver Josh Moore and running back CharMar Brown for the season, so depth for a fourth-quarter push is thin. Central Michigan runs its quarterback and keeps the ball on the ground, 339 rushing yards against Wyoming, which shortens games. The Hurricanes did not cover -20.5 at Wake Forest, and 41.5 asks for six touchdowns of margin.

  13. South Carolina at 8 Alabama Sat 7:00 PM ET

    South Carolina +12.5

    Alabama gave up 36 points to Florida State, and its defensive coordinator called the pass defense the worst of the DeBoer era. SP+ rates Alabama 11th and South Carolina 26th, a gap closer to 9 or 10 at home than 12.5. LaNorris Sellers threw for 282 yards against Mississippi State, and Alabama has road trips to Mississippi State and Georgia next. The Gamecocks' second-half collapse last week is priced in.

  14. 23 Texas A&M at 10 LSU Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Texas A&M +8.5

    SP+ has these teams five spots apart, LSU 9th and Texas A&M 14th, which does not support a line near 9 to 10 once LSU's home edge is added. LSU lost defensive back Dashawn Spears for the season and tight end Trey'Dez Green is expected to miss time, and Sam Leavitt has five interceptions in three games. A&M lost Terry Bussey and Marcel Reed was poor against Kentucky, but 8.5 is too many to give in an evenly matched game.

  15. 20 Oregon at 12 USC Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Oregon -3

    USC is 4-0 but 1-3 against the spread, and Rutgers matched it at 460 yards to 461 while hitting five plays of 20-plus yards. USC's defense ranks 35th in SP+ against Oregon's 12th, and its leading receiver, Trent Mosley, is out with a knee injury. Oregon had an extra day of rest and a bye follows. Laying 3 with the better defense is the side, though the loss of Jeremiah McClellan trims Oregon's receiving depth.

  16. 19 Missouri at 24 Mississippi St Sat 7:45 PM ET

    Missouri +5.5

    The line has moved from Mississippi State -3.5 to -5.5 or more on a 3-0 start, but SP+ still rates Missouri higher, 22nd to 30th, with a 13th-ranked defense against Mississippi State's 56th. Austin Simmons was poor against Troy and Ahmad Hardy is not expected back yet. Mississippi State has Alabama next and is taking several points on reputation built in September.

  17. Missouri St at 22 SMU Sat 9:00 PM ET

    Missouri St +34.5

    Missouri State outgained Marshall 506 to 464 and lost 30-24 on a stop at the 7, so this offense can score on a mid-level defense. SMU is coming off a turnover-heavy loss at Louisville and has Boston College next week. SP+ puts the gap near 29 points before home field, and 34.5 is past that.

How picks are graded

Each pick is made against the spread available when the card is published Wednesday evening, and it locks at kickoff. After the game, the picked team's final margin plus the line decides it: above zero cashes, below zero is a mea culpa, exactly zero is a push. Scores come from ESPN's college scoreboard. Rankings are the AP Top 25 at publication.

Other weeks: Week 3