Bears 31, Falcons 23: two lost returns and a late sack fumble end Atlanta's fourth-quarter rally

Atlanta lost this game twice. The first was with 1:52 left in the second quarter, fourth and one at the Chicago 40, when Tory Taylor punted and Zachariah Branch let the ball reach him at the Atlanta 10. Josh Blackwell recovered it. Three plays and 17 seconds later D'Andre Swift scored from two yards out, and a 14-7 game Atlanta had just climbed into became a 21-7 halftime deficit. The second was at 3:01 of the fourth quarter, third and 16 at the Atlanta 22, eight points down with the ball and clock to work with, when Kyler Gordon came through clean for the third time and knocked the football out of Michael Penix Jr.'s hands. Devin Bush picked it up at the Atlanta 28, and the afternoon was over.

Bears 31, Falcons 23 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the margin was close to exactly what Atlanta handed across. Branch's two lost returns gave Chicago the ball at the Atlanta 10 and the Atlanta 31, and the Bears converted them into 10 points. Subtract those and this is a one-score game. The defense gave up 368 yards at 5.0 a play, which a team can survive. The offense ran 50 snaps to Chicago's 73 and held the ball 19 minutes and 52 seconds, which it cannot.

The possession numbers tell most of it. Four first downs in the first half. Twelve rushing attempts all game. Three of 12 on third down, none of three on fourth. Then a fourth quarter that looked like a different team, touchdown drives of 91 and 57 yards with two-point conversions attached to both, which is the part that will sit badly through the week, because it is evidence the offense had this in it the whole time.

Offense

The plan was to run the ball and throw off it. When Atlanta got to do that, it worked plainly. Bijan Robinson carried nine times for 61 yards, 6.8 a carry, including a 23-yard run on second and one in the second quarter that was the cleanest thing the Falcons did all day. The team finished with 12 carries for 63 yards at 5.3 a crack. Twelve carries is not a preference, it is what is left when you trail 14-0 before your second possession ends, but it is still how the game was lost, because an offense that does not run cannot keep its defense off the grass, and Atlanta's stood out there for 40 minutes and eight seconds. The Falcons ran it 26 times against Baltimore a week ago and 35 times at New Orleans.

Penix finished 19 of 33 for 225 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, a 108.8 rating, a line that reads better than the day played. He was sacked five times for 31 yards and put the ball on the ground twice, holding one. Three of the five sacks belonged to Gordon, a nickel corner, which makes it a recognition and protection problem rather than a tackle losing to an edge rusher. The explosive plays were there whenever Atlanta let Penix throw on his terms: Jahan Dotson caught three for 87, including the 41-yarder that opened the drive that made it 31-23, and Kyle Pitts Sr. went five for 60 with both fourth-quarter touchdowns on seven targets. Drake London drew 10 targets and caught four for 62, and he was where Chicago spent its afternoon. Olamide Zaccheaus was targeted four times and caught none, among them the fourth and five at the Chicago 43 that ended Atlanta's best first-half drive.

Red zone was three for three and both two-point tries were converted. Almost nothing between the 20s worked until the game was decided.

Defense

Caleb Williams, in his first game back from the hamstring injury that cost him three weeks, completed 30 of 36 for 305 yards. Chicago converted nine of 17 third downs and scored on four of five trips inside the 20. Atlanta got nothing home early and then found some rush: four sacks, one each from LaCale London, Gervon Dexter Sr., Brandon Dorlus and Za'Darius Smith, with Dorlus adding two tackles for loss and two hits on limited work. Smith's third-down sack with 4:20 left was the only play that gave the comeback air, and it came in the same stretch as Jessie Bates III punching the ball out of Roschon Johnson's arms at the Atlanta 45 with 7:21 left, the one takeaway Atlanta forced.

The run defense held up. Chicago ran it 33 times for 98 yards, 3.0 a carry. The damage came underneath. Luther Burden III caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards and Colston Loveland had six for 65 and the game's first touchdown. Mike Hughes was in on seven tackles and had a hard afternoon in coverage. Sydney Brown and Kendal Daniels finished with seven apiece.

Daniels, the rookie from Oklahoma, left the field on a stretcher midway through the third quarter after his helmet struck Loveland's knee on a tackle. Both benches came out and knelt. The team said he was alert with movement in all his extremities and was taken to Grady Memorial Hospital for evaluation. Divine Deablo had already gone off with an arm injury. Whatever else is said about this game, that is the part of it that actually matters.

Special teams

This is where the game went, and it is not arguable. Branch muffed Taylor's punt at the Atlanta 10 with 1:52 left in the half, which became a touchdown. He fumbled a kickoff return at the Atlanta 31 with 1:48 left in the third, which became Cairo Santos' 50-yard field goal and a 31-7 scoreboard. Ten points, both free. On the next kickoff Brian Robinson Jr. muffed the catch at the Atlanta 2 and was fortunate to fall on it at the 5.

Coverage was no better. Kalif Raymond returned three punts for 54 yards, 18.0 an attempt. Jake Bailey punted four times for a 55.0 gross average and a 67-yard long and landed none of them inside the 20. Chicago even handed one back, roughing Bailey on a midfield punt and giving Atlanta the ball at the Chicago 35 in the third quarter, and the Falcons turned that into a one-yard run, a six-yard sack, a 12-yard completion and a failed fourth and three.

Coaching

Kevin Stefanski's team came out flat at home for the third time in three tries. Chicago scored touchdowns on its first two possessions, 10 plays and nine plays, while Atlanta ran six snaps in reply. By the time the plan was usable it was unusable. The fourth-down decisions were defensible: fourth and five at the Chicago 43, fourth and three at the Chicago 28, and fourth and 10 at the Atlanta 34 while down 24 are all reasonable with the math, and all three failed on execution rather than on the call. Both two-point calls were right and both were converted.

The harder question is the one the fourth quarter raised. Atlanta went no huddle, spread the field, let Penix throw in rhythm, and moved 91 yards in eight plays and 57 in five, scoring 16 points in under four minutes of clock. That was a real answer to what Chicago was doing, and it arrived with the Falcons down 24 and their win probability at a tenth of a percent. Halftime produced nothing: the first two possessions of the third quarter were a turnover on downs at the Chicago 28 and a three-play, minus-four-yard punt from the Atlanta 6.

What it means

Atlanta is 2-4 and 0-3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where it has now lost by 31 to Carolina, by seven in overtime to Baltimore and by eight to Chicago. Both wins are road wins and both were comfortable, 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans. That split has stopped being a quirk.

Two weeks running, the Falcons have had the end of a game in their hands at home and have not closed it. Against Baltimore they led 23-15 with 2:31 left and lost in overtime. On Sunday they took the ball at their own 28 with 3:34 left and eight points to find, and gave it back on a sack and a fumble. Add three lost fumbles, two of them on returns, and a 19:52 time of possession no defense carries for long. In three home games this season Atlanta has held exactly one lead.

What is next

San Francisco comes to Mercedes-Benz Stadium next Sunday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern, a fourth home game and a fourth attempt at the only question left in October: whether this team can play a competent first half in its own building. The offense has shown it can move the ball on anybody once it is throwing in rhythm, and the defense has shown it can hold a run game to three yards a carry. None of it has mattered yet, because the games keep being decided before either unit is involved.