College football · Week 4

College picks: Week 4, 2026

Every game with a Top 25 team, against the spread. Locked at kickoff, graded after the final whistle.

By Taurean Matador · Tuesday, September 22 at 10:14 AM ET

Friday, September 25

1. Northwestern at 5 Indiana Fri 8:00 PM ET

   Northwestern +21 Cashed Northwestern 23, Indiana 29

   Indiana is 0-3 against the spread despite winning by 36, 55 and 38, which says it eases off once games are decided. Northwestern is 2-0 against the number, allows 12.5 points per game and just beat Colorado 41-7 with Aidan Chiles accounting for five touchdowns. The line opened 23.5 and has already come down; 21 on a short week is still more than the matchup warrants.

   Indiana wins by six and Northwestern covers 21 without breaking a sweat

   Indiana piled up 472 yards, 271 of them on the ground, and still could not get three touchdowns of separation. Northwestern trailed 12-0 at the half and never fell behind by more than 15 after it, with Aidan Chiles finding Griffin Wilde twice and running one in himself. Jackson Kleather's 42-yard field goal with 58 seconds left was decoration on a cover already banked.

   Cashed. Indiana has now failed to cover in all four of its games while winning all four, which was the whole thesis: the Hoosiers stop pressing once the outcome is settled, and 21 on a short week was never the right price.

Saturday, September 26

1. 1 Texas at 14 Tennessee Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Tennessee +5.5 Cashed Texas 20, Tennessee 17

   Texas is averaging 5.3 yards per play, 78th nationally, against Tennessee's 6.6, and Arch Manning managed 4.9 yards per attempt against UTSA. Steve Sarkisian says Texas is down about three defenders, with edge Colin Simmons and DL Justus Terry both dealing with foot and ankle issues. Getting 5.5 at home in Neyland with the better offense is the right side of the number.

   Tennessee backs into the cover with 82 seconds left

   Texas led 20-10 with 5:41 on the clock and Tennessee needed a score to get inside the number. It got one: ten plays, 80 yards, Faizon Brandon to Mike Matthews for 30 and the touchdown at 1:22. Two and a half points of cushion, and the Vols got the ball back at their own 49 with a chance to win it outright.

   Cashed. The read was that Texas has an offense problem and it does: 262 total yards, 3 of 12 on third down, two turnovers and 115 yards in penalties. Texas won the game and lost the number, which is what that stat line buys you when you are laying five and a half in Neyland.

2. Sam Houston at 11 Texas Tech Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Sam Houston +33.5 Mea culpa Sam Houston 14, Texas Tech 49

   Texas Tech is 0-3 against the spread, failed to cover -45.5 against Abilene Christian and has won its last two by 11 and 2. Sam Houston is 3-0 against the number, including one-score losses at Troy and to Tulsa. The line opened 37.5 and has fallen to 33.5 to 34.5, and it is still asking a team that has not blown anyone out to win by five touchdowns.

   Two pick-sixes seven seconds apart and Sam Houston was done before halftime

   Austin Romaine returned interceptions 15 and 31 yards for touchdowns seven seconds apart in the second quarter. A 21-0 hole is survivable at 33.5; a defense scoring 14 by itself is not. Sam Houston turned it over three times, and Texas Tech kept going into the fourth, with Will Hammond running one in at 10:41 and Thomas Castellanos throwing one at 4:49.

   The pick was wrong about where the margin would come from. The theory was that Tech does not blow anyone out, so the bench would never get a chance to pad the score. Tech did not need the bench. It got the points from the takeaways, and the number was gone by the second quarter.

3. Wake Forest at 16 Louisville Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Louisville -12.5 Mea culpa Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27

   Gio Lopez hurt his hip at Purdue, took roughly 20 hits against Miami and was visibly hobbling, and Wake ran 16 times for 22 yards in that game. Louisville is 3-0 against the spread and scored 41 on SMU. The letdown after the SMU win is the risk, but a limited quarterback behind a line that cannot run the ball makes 12.5 a fair number to lay.

   The hobbled quarterback threw 77 yards and Louisville lost outright

   Gio Lopez, the hip injury this pick was built on, hit Carlos Hernandez for 77 yards and a touchdown in the second quarter. Wake Forest then ran it 42 times for 177 yards and took the fourth quarter on Connor Calvert's 32-yard field goal at 6:20. Louisville had two chances to answer and missed both field goals.

   Laying 12.5 required Louisville healthy on one side and Wake broken on the other. Neither held. The line that supposedly could not run the ball averaged better than four a carry, and a quarterback described as limited produced the longest play of the night. That is two bad reads in one pick.

4. Illinois at 7 Ohio State Sat 12:00 PM ET

   Ohio State -27.5 Mea culpa Illinois 19, Ohio State 42

   This is the exception to fading big favorites: Ohio State covered -49.5 and -52.5 by allowing 3 points each time, so its margin comes from the defense rather than from starters staying in. Illinois arrives for its first road game with its offensive line thinned out, with Brandon Henderson out and TJ McMillen reported lost for the year. At -27.5 the Buckeyes need about 34-6, which is what their defense has been producing.

   Ohio State wins by 23 and the defense that was the whole pick gives up 462

   The number needed 28 and Ohio State delivered 23. Julian Sayin threw four touchdowns to Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes scored 42, which was never in question. Whether the defense would hold Illinois near 3 again was, and it did not: 462 yards, 199 rushing, 25 first downs, and a 27-yard Ty Robinson touchdown with six minutes left that put the cover out of reach. Ja'Kobi Jackson's two-yard run at 2:36 got it to 23 and no further.

   This was the one big favorite the pick refused to fade, on the grounds that the margin came from shutouts rather than from starters staying in. Illinois scored on four separate possessions. Asking a defense to repeat a three-point performance against a Big Ten offense with a pulse was the mistake.

5. 3 Notre Dame at Purdue Sat 2:00 PM ET

   Purdue +27.5 Mea culpa Notre Dame 49, Purdue 10

   Notre Dame -29.5 lost last week when the Irish won 27-10, and this is a similar number against a better offense. Purdue has scored at least 36 in every game and ranks third nationally in passing at 366.7 yards per game. Notre Dame is thin at safety, with Luke Talich questionable with a wrist injury and Brauntae Johnson out for a couple of weeks. Purdue's defense will give up points, but its passing game keeps a late cover alive at 27.5.

   Notre Dame 35-0 at halftime and Purdue's passing game never arrived

   Notre Dame scored 28 in the second quarter, including Drayk Bowen's 15-yard fumble return, and led 35-0 at the break. Purdue's first points came on a 47-yard field goal with 4:10 left in the third, and the 14-yard touchdown with six seconds on the clock was for the box score. Final numbers for the nation's third-ranked passing offense: 178 net yards through the air and 40 on the ground.

   The pick leaned on Purdue's 366 yards per game and a thin Notre Dame safety room. Those yards came against nobody, and a team that cannot protect or run does not get to a late cover no matter how many points it is handed.

6. 4 Ole Miss at 21 Florida Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Ole Miss +3 Mea culpa Ole Miss 28, Florida 52

   The market has moved Florida from -1.5 to -3.5, but the efficiency numbers favor Ole Miss: its offense ranks 8th in EPA per play while Florida's passing game ranks 120th in EPA per pass. The worry is Florida back Jadan Baugh at 8.5 yards per carry against an Ole Miss run defense giving up an SEC-worst 159 yards per game, and Kewan Lacy is a game-time decision. Ole Miss has a bye next week, and getting 3 with the better offense is the value side.

   Named the risk, took the other side, watched Jadan Baugh score three

   Ole Miss got within 24-21 in the third quarter and then Florida scored 28 of the final 35 points. The Gators ran it 53 times for 302 yards, held the ball 36:59, and Baugh finished with three touchdowns. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 298 and it did not matter.

   This one is on the write-up. The worry listed in the pick was Baugh against an Ole Miss run defense allowing the most yards in the SEC, and that is exactly the game that showed up. Taking the points anyway because the efficiency numbers liked the Ole Miss offense meant ignoring the problem already identified in writing.

7. Oklahoma at 2 Georgia Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Oklahoma +14 Mea culpa Oklahoma 13, Georgia 41

   A 14-point spread with a 43.5 total implies roughly 29-15, and Oklahoma's defense ranks second in SP+ and just held New Mexico to 6. The Oklahoma offense is the problem, 24 points in two games and three John Mateer interceptions, but in a low-scoring game two touchdowns is a lot of cushion. Oklahoma has a bye next, so there is no Texas lookahead to split its attention.

   Oklahoma held Georgia to 306 yards and lost by 28

   Georgia gained 306 yards and 12 first downs, which is roughly what this pick expected. Then Oklahoma turned it over four times, Chris Cole took a fumble 85 yards for a touchdown, and it was 28-0 at halftime. A pair of Peyton Woodring field goals and a 54-yard Dwight Phillips run closed it out.

   The logic was that 14 points on a 43.5 total leaves plenty of cushion in a low-scoring game. It does, right up until the underdog hands over short fields and a defensive touchdown. The Oklahoma offense was flagged as the risk and it was worse than flagged: 2 of 14 on third down, 65 rushing yards, four giveaways.

8. 15 Utah at Iowa State Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Utah -7.5 Cashed Utah 31, Iowa State 17

   This opened Utah -11.5 and dropped four points within a day with no public explanation. Utah allows 8 points per game, has won by an average of 33 and brings the 22nd-ranked SP+ defense against an Iowa State offense rated 81st. Iowa State may be without cornerback Jaheim Singletary after he left on a backboard against Bowling Green. The move looks like a buying opportunity rather than information.

   Utah covers and the mystery four-point line move was in fact a gift

   Wayshawn Parker went 54 yards on the opening drive and Utah led 24-3 at the break. Iowa State cut it to 24-17 with 10:52 left, which put 7.5 in real danger, and then Devon Dampier found Parker for 13 yards and a touchdown at 2:58 to push it back out to 14. Utah finished with 411 yards and no turnovers; Iowa State had two.

   Cashed. This opened Utah -11.5 and fell four points overnight with nothing behind it, and the game played closer to the opener than to the close. When a line moves that far with no news attached, the price is the news.

9. 17 Iowa at 18 Michigan Sat 3:30 PM ET

   Iowa +4.5 Cashed Iowa 20, Michigan 19

   With a total of 37.5, 4.5 points is a lot of margin, and Iowa has allowed 13 points in three games. Michigan's own offense has scored 13 and 17 against Western Michigan and Oklahoma, and it is missing right tackle Andrew Sprague. The risks are Iowa's running backs, with Kamari Moulton and LJ Phillips Jr. uncertain, and Ohio State coming to Iowa City next week. In a game likely decided by a field goal, the points matter more than the lookahead.

   Iowa wins it at the gun from its own 9 and never needed the 4.5

   Michigan led 19-14 after JJ Buchanan's 49-yard catch and then missed the two-point try that would have made it a six-point game. Iowa took over at its own 9 with 1:46 showing, went 11 plays and 91 yards, and Hank Brown hit Reece Vander Zee for 16 and the touchdown with no time left. Braeden Jackson's 99-yard kickoff return in the first quarter was the other half of Iowa's scoring.

   Cashed, and the points turned out to be spare change. The read was a game decided by a field goal on a 37.5 total. It was decided by one point, and Michigan outgained Iowa by 144 yards and still lost.

10. 25 Houston at GA Southern Sat 4:00 PM ET

    GA Southern +18.5 Cashed Houston 42, GA Southern 28

    Houston is on its second straight road trip after a 28-26 loss at Texas Tech, with UCF next. Its pass defense allows 253.3 yards per game, second worst in the Big 12, and Georgia Southern led Jacksonville State into the fourth quarter last week. SP+ puts the gap at roughly 18 points before any home edge, so 18.5 is at the top of the fair range.

    Georgia Southern throws for 289 and clips the number by 4.5

    Houston pushed it to 42-21 early in the fourth and then stopped scoring. Georgia Southern answered with a five-yard touchdown to River Helms at 8:20, got the ball back, and reached its own 46 before turning it over on downs. Fourteen points was the final gap against a number of 18.5.

    Cashed. The pick said Houston's pass defense was the second worst in the Big 12 and that Georgia Southern could stay on the field, and Max Johnson threw for 289 yards with three touchdowns. Houston on its second straight road trip with UCF ahead gave up 355 yards and 22 first downs, which is all the cover required.

11. Wisconsin at 13 Penn State Sat 5:00 PM ET

    Penn State -9.5 Mea culpa Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20

    This opened Penn State -11.5, and at -9.5 the Nittany Lions are laying under 10 against an offense that ranks 91st in SP+ and 101st in rushing. Penn State allows 7.3 points per game, and Rocco Becht has 9 touchdown passes without an interception. Wisconsin's defense is legitimate, but a 44.5 total and a Wisconsin offense that cannot run make scoring 14 in State College a stretch.

    Penn State led 17-0 and scored three points the rest of the night

    That 17 came from a field goal, a 51-yard Josiah Zayas pick-six and a Rocco Becht run. After it, Penn State produced one field goal, 233 total yards and 114 through the air. Wisconsin turned the ball over three times and won anyway, with Colton Joseph finding Jacob Harris for 72 yards at 1:13.

    Laying 9.5 was a bet that an offense ranked 91st could not find 14 points in State College. It found 24. The Wisconsin defense was called legitimate in the pick and then held Penn State to a single offensive touchdown, which is the half of the matchup the number never accounted for.

12. C Michigan at 6 Miami Sat 6:30 PM ET

    C Michigan +41.5 Mea culpa C Michigan 3, Miami 52

    Miami plays at Clemson next week and just lost receiver Josh Moore and running back CharMar Brown for the season, so depth for a fourth-quarter push is thin. Central Michigan runs its quarterback and keeps the ball on the ground, 339 rushing yards against Wyoming, which shortens games. The Hurricanes did not cover -20.5 at Wake Forest, and 41.5 asks for six touchdowns of margin.

    Central Michigan runs for 21 yards and the shortened game never happens

    The entire idea was that Central Michigan keeps it on the ground, shortens the game and makes 41.5 unreachable. It gained 21 rushing yards on 25 attempts. Miami ran up 572 yards and 31 first downs, led 35-3 at halftime, and Darian Mensah had three touchdown passes before he was finished.

    The depth argument failed too. Miami was supposedly too thin for a fourth-quarter push with Clemson next, and it still scored 10 in the fourth on a field goal and a 35-yard Chris Wheatley-Humphrey run. A 339-yard rushing night against Wyoming was not evidence of anything that travels to Hard Rock.

13. South Carolina at 8 Alabama Sat 7:00 PM ET

    South Carolina +12.5 Mea culpa South Carolina 18, Alabama 49

    Alabama gave up 36 points to Florida State, and its defensive coordinator called the pass defense the worst of the DeBoer era. SP+ rates Alabama 11th and South Carolina 26th, a gap closer to 9 or 10 at home than 12.5. LaNorris Sellers threw for 282 yards against Mississippi State, and Alabama has road trips to Mississippi State and Georgia next. The Gamecocks' second-half collapse last week is priced in.

    Bet Alabama's bad pass defense, got buried by Alabama's passing offense

    Keelon Russell threw four touchdowns and 365 yards, opening with 75 to Lotzeir Brooks, and a Red Morgan pick-six made it 35-3 before halftime. South Carolina gained 419 yards and ran for 216, so the effort was there long after the game was gone.

    The pick was built on Alabama allowing 36 to Florida State and its own coordinator calling the pass defense the worst of the DeBoer era. All true, and all beside the point, because the other side of that team has a quarterback who does not need the defense to be any good. Two turnovers and 3 for 14 on third down finished the Gamecocks.

14. 23 Texas A&M at 10 LSU Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Texas A&M +8.5 Mea culpa Texas A&M 6, LSU 35

    SP+ has these teams five spots apart, LSU 9th and Texas A&M 14th, which does not support a line near 9 to 10 once LSU's home edge is added. LSU lost defensive back Dashawn Spears for the season and tight end Trey'Dez Green is expected to miss time, and Sam Leavitt has five interceptions in three games. A&M lost Terry Bussey and Marcel Reed was poor against Kentucky, but 8.5 is too many to give in an evenly matched game.

    Texas A&M scores six and the evenly matched theory dies in Baton Rouge

    LSU 506 yards, Texas A&M 197. Sam Leavitt, who arrived with five interceptions in three games, threw two touchdowns to Jackson Harris, one from 57 yards, and it was 35-6 before the fourth quarter began. A&M's points came on two David Olano field goals and nothing else.

    The pick was SP+ having these teams five spots apart plus LSU losing a defensive back for the season. The paper gap was real and it meant nothing. Marcel Reed was worse than he had been against Kentucky, and 106 net passing yards keeps no number alive, least of all 8.5 on the road.

15. 20 Oregon at 12 USC Sat 7:30 PM ET

    Oregon -3 Cashed Oregon 41, USC 27

    USC is 4-0 but 1-3 against the spread, and Rutgers matched it at 460 yards to 461 while hitting five plays of 20-plus yards. USC's defense ranks 35th in SP+ against Oregon's 12th, and its leading receiver, Trent Mosley, is out with a knee injury. Oregon had an extra day of rest and a bye follows. Laying 3 with the better defense is the side, though the loss of Jeremiah McClellan trims Oregon's receiving depth.

    USC ties it at 27 and Oregon scores the last 14

    It was even at 27 with 12:41 left. Then Dylan Raiola found Dakorien Moore for 29 yards and a touchdown, Jordon Davison ran one in at 2:03, and USC's final possession ended with an interception in the end zone. Oregon finished with 504 yards, no turnovers and 2 for 2 on fourth down.

    Cashed. The read was Oregon's defense against a USC team sitting 1-3 against the spread despite a 4-0 record, and USC went 2 for 11 on third down while needing four fourth-down conversions just to stay level. Laying 3 in Los Angeles worked because the better team stopped being polite in the last twelve minutes.

16. 19 Missouri at 24 Mississippi St Sat 7:45 PM ET

    Missouri +5.5 Mea culpa Missouri 24, Mississippi St 31

    The line has moved from Mississippi State -3.5 to -5.5 or more on a 3-0 start, but SP+ still rates Missouri higher, 22nd to 30th, with a 13th-ranked defense against Mississippi State's 56th. Austin Simmons was poor against Troy and Ahmad Hardy is not expected back yet. Mississippi State has Alabama next and is taking several points on reputation built in September.

    Missouri leads 24-17, gets stopped at the 11, loses by seven

    Missouri was up 24-17 late in the third. Mississippi State answered with a 14-play, 73-yard drive and then went 85 yards in five, Kamario Taylor to Sanfrisco Magee for 24 and the lead at 3:57. Missouri's next possession reached the Mississippi State 11 and ended on downs, and its last one died at the 38.

    Seven points against a 5.5 number is as close as a loss gets. The SP+ edge showed up in the box score, 414 yards and 23 first downs, but Austin Simmons could not finish inside the 20 and Taylor threw for 360 against the defense this pick rated 13th nationally. The reputation being faded turned out to be earned.

17. Missouri St at 22 SMU Sat 9:00 PM ET

    Missouri St +34.5 Cashed Missouri St 24, SMU 34

    Missouri State outgained Marshall 506 to 464 and lost 30-24 on a stop at the 7, so this offense can score on a mid-level defense. SMU is coming off a turnover-heavy loss at Louisville and has Boston College next week. SP+ puts the gap near 29 points before home field, and 34.5 is past that.

    SMU gains 592 yards and wins by ten

    Joel Boamah took an interception 60 yards to the house in the first quarter and Missouri State led 10-0. SMU then moved it at will, 592 yards with 464 through the air from Kevin Jennings, and still only stretched the margin to 16 before Dillon Hipp's 18-yard touchdown at 1:09 made it 34-24. Twelve penalties for 111 yards and two turnovers is how a team gains 592 and wins by ten.

    Cashed by 24.5. The pick had the gap near 29 before home field, with SMU coming off a turnover-heavy loss at Louisville and Boston College next week. The turnovers came again, and 34.5 was never close to the right price on a team that outgained Marshall.

How picks are graded

Other weeks: Week 3