NFL Week 10 picks against the spread, 2026

Washington is down to its third tier at receiver, with Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown and Jaylin Lane all on injured reserve, which leaves Stefon Diggs and not much behind him. We make it Giants -4.6; the market says -2.5. The matchup we keep coming back to is Isaiah Likely against a Washington defense giving up 0.47 EPA per target to tight ends, third worst in football, with Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw both on IR so there's no interior rush to hurry the Giants' timing. Washington's run path is real and it isn't a running back: Jayden Daniels is averaging 8.8 yards on his 29 carries with 0.52 EPA a rush, and with Jacory Croskey-Merritt on IR the scrambles and designed keepers are most of what this offense does well. The Giants are missing a lot of their own defense, including Brian Burns and Tremaine Edmunds, and four corners are on IR, but Washington doesn't have the receivers to punish that right now and that's the whole pick. J.J. McCarthy's hip pointer had him limited Monday and full Tuesday, and he's expected to play; if he's a surprise scratch and Jameis Winston starts, the half-point we're laying stops being worth it.

This is a neutral-site game in Munich, so nobody gets a home field, and on our ratings these are two teams within a point and a half of each other. We make it Patriots -0.3; the market says Lions -2.5. We'll say the uncomfortable part first: the biggest single matchup here favors Detroit, because New England allows 0.56 EPA per target to wide receivers, the worst figure in the league, and Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are exactly the pair to use it. What offsets it is the other side of Detroit's defense, where Kerby Joseph is out, D.J. Reed is questionable and the Lions give up 0.48 EPA per target to tight ends, second worst, which is Hunter Henry's whole job at 0.60 EPA per target. New England's run path is Drake Maye himself at 6.4 yards a carry and 0.53 EPA a rush, and that matters more than usual with Rhamondre Stevenson doubtful and TreVeyon Henderson questionable. The risk is plain: Mike Onwenu, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Greg Van Roten are on IR with Ben Brown doubtful, so if that line caves the Patriots can't trade scores. We had the Lions laying 7 last week and we're on the other side of them now, which is the number moving rather than a change of heart about Detroit.

Patrick Mahomes hurt his elbow in Week 9, came back in that game and is being called day to day, so this pick is written without knowing who plays quarterback. We make it Chiefs -2.5; the market says -3.5. With a healthy Mahomes our number is closer to a touchdown and we'd be laying it; with Justin Fields we'd want Atlanta plus a lot more than this. Blending the two, and discounting a Mahomes who throws with a sore elbow, gets us to the Falcons side by a point, and we'd rather have the dog than lay 3.5 into that uncertainty. On the field, Atlanta just traded Jessie Bates to Jacksonville, which is a bad week to be short a safety against Travis Kelce at 0.54 EPA per target, and Kansas City's secondary is the reason we don't love Atlanta more: they allow minus 0.01 EPA per target to wide receivers, fifth best in the league, and that's Drake London's problem all afternoon. Atlanta's run path is the one thing the matchup likes, with Bijan Robinson at 5.2 yards a carry against a Kansas City front allowing minus 0.11 EPA a rush, so somebody has to win that. Say it plainly: this is a medium-conviction dog whose value depends on a Friday designation, and if Mahomes practices fully and looks right, the honest number is on Kansas City.

The records lie about this game. Cleveland is 5-4 but has been outscored by 35 points and is 5-2 in one-score games, while Houston is 3-5 with a positive point differential and a 1-4 mark in games decided by eight or fewer. We make it Texans -5.1; the market says -4.5, so this is a lean and not much more. Cleveland's defense is the better unit here and we'll say so, but their offense is the third worst in the league once garbage time comes out, and Nico Collins at 0.67 EPA per target with Marvin Harrison Jr. now in the building is a far better group than anything the Browns can answer with. Deshaun Watson is expected back from his concussion behind a line that has let him be sacked on 11.7 percent of his dropbacks, and Houston has been getting home lately, but we're not building a pick on sack rates: if that rush doesn't land, Cleveland's path is Harold Fannin and KC Concepcion on quick throws and Houston's own run game is bad enough at 3.6 yards a carry for Woody Marks to keep this close. Cleveland's run game is worse, with Quinshon Judkins at 3.3 a carry and minus 0.25 EPA, so neither team has a way to shorten the afternoon.

Minnesota gave up a 2027 third-round pick for Kirk Cousins on Tuesday and he's expected to start here, which is the rare deadline move that changes a team in one week. We make it Packers -2.5; the market says -3.5. Kyler Murray has a grade two hamstring and isn't expected to be available, so the alternative was Carson Wentz at minus 0.27 EPA per dropback, and Cousins at plus 0.11 is a real upgrade even with one week in the offense. The side of this we trust most is Minnesota's defense, which is second in the league in EPA allowed per play and gives up 0.01 EPA per target to tight ends and minus 0.03 to wide receivers, against a Green Bay offense that cannot run: the Packers are at minus 0.22 EPA a rush, worst in football, and Josh Jacobs is listed out with a fractured finger. That forces Jordan Love to throw into the best coverage he'll see this month, and Micah Parsons being out takes away Green Bay's best answer to a Minnesota line that gives up sacks on 8.6 percent of dropbacks. Green Bay's run path without Jacobs is MarShawn Lloyd at 2.6 yards a carry and Kaleb Johnson, who has 42 of them, and that isn't a game plan against this defense. We had the Vikings plus 3.5 at Buffalo last week and we're on them again, for a different and better reason.

Our model makes this Jaguars -17 against a market of -10.5, and the first thing to say is that we don't believe the precision of our own number. Jacksonville and Tennessee sit at the two extremes of our ratings, and stacking one against the other produces a figure no sane market would post, so read this as Jacksonville by more than 10.5 rather than Jacksonville by 17. What we do trust is the football. Tennessee is last in the league in our overall rating and fourth worst on offense once garbage time comes out, Cam Ward is at minus 0.12 EPA per dropback, JC Latham and Peter Skoronski are both questionable up front and Carnell Tate, their leading receiver, is questionable too. Jacksonville spent the deadline adding Jordan Davis, Davon Godchaux and Jessie Bates to a defense already second in EPA allowed per target to tight ends at minus 0.22, which is how you take away the short, safe throws a struggling quarterback needs. Trevor Lawrence is at 0.28 EPA per dropback, the best mark among qualified starters, and Tennessee gives up 0.55 EPA per target to wide receivers, second worst. Tennessee's run path is Tony Pollard at 4.5 a carry plus Ward's own legs at 4.4, and if this stays respectable that's why, because Jacksonville has Anton Harrison, Patrick Mekari and Sam Mustipher on IR and a short-field slugging match is the one shape of game that saves a bad home team. The line opened near a pick in the lookahead and sits at 10.5 now, which is the market agreeing with the direction and not the size.

This one came out dead even and we'll say so rather than dress it up: we make it Colts -3.4 and the market says -3.5. Indianapolis sold at the deadline and it cost them their passing game, with Josh Downs going to Kansas City and Keenan Allen to San Francisco, which were their top two target earners, so Tyler Warren is now the offense. That's actually the matchup we like for Indianapolis, because Miami allows 0.58 EPA per target to tight ends, the worst mark in the league. Against that, Malik Willis is on injured reserve and Kyle McCord gets his first meaningful start behind a line that has allowed sacks on 9.3 percent of dropbacks, and De'Von Achane is on IR, so Miami's run path is Ollie Gordon at 4.3 a carry and not much else. Indianapolis still has Jonathan Taylor at 161 carries to lean on against a Miami run defense that's been middling, and Daniel Jones at minus 0.21 EPA per dropback is the reason the Colts can't put teams away. The thin football case for Miami is that Indianapolis has the worst run defense in the league at plus 0.07 EPA a rush, which is the one place Ollie Gordon at 4.3 a carry can live. We'll be straight about this one: the market already moved it from Indianapolis -6.5 to -3.5 on the deadline news, that's most of the work we'd have done, and we're taking the points because of the key number rather than because we have a real read. If you pass on this game we wouldn't argue.

Two teams inside a point of each other on our ratings, which is why the number matters more than the argument here. We make it Saints -1.3; the market says -2.5. By our edge this is a medium-conviction play, but we're calling it a lean because taking 2.5 on the short side of 3 needs a two-point cushion we don't have, and that's a rule we'd rather follow than argue with. Carolina is in real trouble up front with Ikem Ekwonu out and Taylor Moton on IR, meaning both starting tackles are gone against a New Orleans front that's gotten to the quarterback on 10.4 percent of dropbacks over the last three games, and if that rush lands on Bryce Young this number is wrong. The reason we'll still take the points is the rest of the field: Darren Waller and Tommy Tremble face a Saints defense allowing 0.45 EPA per target to tight ends, fifth worst, and Tetairoa McMillan at 0.38 EPA per target is a genuine problem for anyone. New Orleans has its own interior issue with Erik McCoy doubtful at center, and their run path is thin, with Travis Etienne on IR and Alvin Kamara down to 3.3 a carry, so Tyler Shough's scrambles at 5.3 are doing more than the backs. Carolina's corner room is gutted, with Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on IR, and Chris Olave at 0.45 EPA per target is the matchup that beats us.

Buffalo is the healthiest team on this card, which is worth more in November than it sounds. We make it Bills -9.8; the market says -8.5. Dalton Kincaid at 0.53 EPA per target against a Jets defense allowing 0.34 EPA per target to tight ends is the cleanest mismatch in the game, and Garrett Wilson being questionable takes away the Jets' best way to trade scores. New York's run path is the live question and it's a decent one: Braelon Allen is at 5.0 yards a carry and Breece Hall gives them a second body, against a Buffalo defense allowing minus 0.07 EPA a rush, so a slow game is how the Jets stay inside this. The other side of it is Josh Allen's own legs at 5.7 a carry and 0.53 EPA a rush, which is how Buffalo converts the short-yardage downs that keep drives alive and turns a two-score game into three. Laying 8.5 in a division game on the road is not comfortable, and we're treating it as a medium play rather than one of our five.

Arizona is starting Carson Beck, with Gardner Minshew's elbow looking season-ending, and that's the first of several reasons the Cardinals can't score here. We make it Rams -10.1; the market says -9.5, so this is a lean on a number we barely clear. The matchup that kills Arizona is Trey McBride, their best player at 94 targets and 0.29 EPA per target, running into a Los Angeles defense allowing minus 0.29 EPA per target to tight ends, the best mark in the league by a clear margin. Take away the tight end and what's left is a receiver room without Michael Wilson or Kendrick Bourne, and a backfield without James Conner or Trey Benson, so Arizona's run path is Tyler Allgeier at 4.1 a carry against a Rams front at minus 0.10 EPA a rush. The reason we aren't laying this with any conviction is the Rams' own receiving corps: Puka Nacua is doubtful with a knee, Davante Adams and Jordan Whittington are on IR, and that leaves Matthew Stafford at 0.05 EPA per dropback throwing to Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson, which is not a group that turns a two-score lead into four. We took the Cardinals plus 11.5 at Seattle last week and we're against them now; the quarterback changed and so did we.

Dallas scores plenty and stops nobody, and that's the whole game. We make it 49ers -7.4; the market says -3.5, which is the biggest gap we have on a single-digit line. The Cowboys are last in the league in defensive EPA per play in competitive situations, they give up 0.46 EPA per target to wide receivers and 0.28 to tight ends, and George Kittle at 53 targets is the kind of player who turns that into a long afternoon. Christian McCaffrey at 4.5 yards a carry against a Dallas front allowing plus 0.01 EPA a rush is the other half, and it's how San Francisco holds the ball and keeps Dak Prescott on the sideline. Dallas's run path is real, with Javonte Williams at 154 carries and Prescott himself at 4.4 a carry and 0.25 EPA, and with CeeDee Lamb at 110 targets this team can absolutely score 27 and still lose by 10. The caution is San Francisco's receiver room, where Brandon Aiyuk is out, Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are questionable and Christian Kirk and Ricky Pearsall are on IR, though adding Keenan Allen and DeForest Buckner at the deadline says something about how this front office reads its own season. Brock Purdy at 0.25 EPA per dropback and a 3.3 percent sack rate behind the league's best protection is the reason we're comfortable laying it.

Cincinnati has the third best offense in the league and the fifth worst defense once you strip out garbage time, and that combination makes them a bad team to lay points with. We make it Bengals -1.7; the market says -3.5. Pittsburgh's path is Jaylen Warren, who's at 5.9 yards a carry and 0.13 EPA a rush, running at a Cincinnati defense allowing plus 0.03 EPA a rush, with Pat Freiermuth working a unit that gives up 0.34 EPA per target to tight ends. Pittsburgh has also been getting to the quarterback lately, on 11.0 percent of dropbacks over the last three games, but Joe Burrow is the wrong target for that argument: he's sacked on 4.8 percent of his dropbacks behind the best-protected pocket in the division, and if the rush doesn't arrive then Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at 0.56 and 0.82 EPA per target will simply go score. The reason we'll take the points anyway is that Pittsburgh's coverage holds up, at 0.13 EPA per target to wide receivers, and a Bengals team that wins shootouts has to win this one by four. Aaron Rodgers at minus 0.11 EPA per dropback with Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson on IR is why this is a medium play and not one of our five, and we laid the Bengals minus 3 last week, so this is a reversal we'll own.

The Chargers are 0-8 and the reason is the offensive line, not the record. We make it Ravens -7.5; the market says -4.5. Rashawn Slater, Trey Pipkins, Trevor Penning and Tyler Biadasz are all on injured reserve, Isaiah World is out and Kayode Awosika is questionable, which is how Justin Herbert ends up at minus 0.28 EPA per dropback with sacks on 11.7 percent of his dropbacks, and Herbert's own status is unsettled after he hurt his left middle finger, with imaging negative and no fracture. We're not building this on Baltimore's rush, because they get home on only 5.2 percent of dropbacks and 2.1 percent over the last three games, which is one of the two lowest figures in the league. What we're building it on is that the Chargers have nowhere to go with the ball: Baltimore allows minus 0.56 EPA per target to running backs, the best mark in the league, and a checkdown offense without David Njoku and with Ladd McConkey questionable has to live there. Los Angeles's run path is Omarion Hampton at 3.6 a carry and minus 0.29 EPA, so the short game isn't a solution either. Jacoby Brissett starts for Baltimore with Lamar Jackson on injured reserve after thumb surgery, which caps how much the Ravens can run away with this, and Derrick Henry at 3.9 a carry isn't what he was; the Chargers' defense is the one functional unit they own, so a 17-13 game that stays inside the number is the way we lose.