NFL Week 8 picks against the spread, 2026

Carolina's offensive line can't be fixed on a short week. Taylor Moton is on injured reserve, Ikem Ekwonu is out, left guard Damien Lewis didn't practice all week and his backup Torricelli Simpkins is out too, which leaves a rookie at right tackle on a unit already 31st in pressure rate allowed at 44.0%. Green Bay should be the team to punish that, except Micah Parsons is out, the Packers have two sacks in their last two games and they rank 26th in pass-rush win rate, so the obvious mismatch is muted at both ends. We make it Packers -4.5; the market says -3.5. What actually tips it is Carolina's secondary, where Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are on injured reserve and Akayleb Evans didn't practice, leaving two active corners and Tre'von Moehrig in the nickel in an 83.3% zone shell against a passing game with 30 completions of 20-plus yards and eight of 40-plus, the most explosive profile in football. The run matchup cuts the other way and it's why this stays small: Green Bay averages 59.9 yards a game at 2.9 a carry, the worst rushing offense in the league, so the one thing Carolina does worst, allowing 5.2 a carry and the most rushing touchdowns in football, is the one thing the Packers can't exploit, and Josh Jacobs is only in his second game back. Green Bay's own interior is a first-time center next to Kevin Zeitler making his season debut, and Matthew Golden was limited, so this is a lean and nothing more. We laid Carolina last week and we're against them now; that's a roster-and-number read, not a reaction to a scoreline.

Lamar Jackson practiced Wednesday for the first time since a high ankle sprain cost him three games, and this pick lives or dies on Friday's designation. If he plays, Baltimore brings the league's most efficient quarterback by EPA per dropback at 0.38 into the worst pass defense in football: Buffalo allows 298.7 passing yards a game, a 102.5 passer rating and 15 touchdowns against three interceptions, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson is suspended for exactly this game. Zay Flowers has 608 of Baltimore's 1,694 passing yards and he'll see zone with a backup safety behind it, because Buffalo plays man on 16.8% of snaps and there's no evidence it travels Christian Benford. Baltimore's interior line is wrecked, with Ethan Pocic, Danny Pinter and Jovaughn Gwyn on injured reserve and Vega Ioane doubtful, and that's produced a 10.2% sack rate over three games, but Buffalo has two sacks in its last three, the lowest three-game rate in the league, and Ed Oliver has played three games all year. We make it Bills -2.5; the market says -3 to -3.5. Buffalo's answer is the ground game, where James Cook and Josh Allen have 14 rushing touchdowns between them and 33.5% of Bills carries produce a first down, the highest rate in football, against a Baltimore front that's eighth in run-stop win rate but has already allowed eight rushing scores. Take the Ravens only if Jackson is cleared: with Tyler Huntley we make this Bills -4.5 and the pick is dead, which is why it stays a lean.

Cincinnati wins up front without needing to send anybody, and that's the game. The Bengals blitz on 16.7% of dropbacks, dead last in the league, and still own the slate's best three-game sack rate at 11.6%, with Dexter Lawrence II and Jonathan Allen working the interior against a Tennessee line that's 29th in pass-block win rate. Cam Ward sits last among qualified quarterbacks at minus 0.15 EPA per dropback on a 40.3% success rate, and the help is gone: Carnell Tate, the team's leading receiver at 413 yards, didn't practice with a shoulder, Calvin Ridley was limited and has 10 targets in six games, and Tyjae Spears didn't practice. Joe Burrow has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions in each of his last two games and completes 71.7% of his passes, the best rate in football, into a Tennessee zone that allows 69.2% completions and has given up 24 completions of 20-plus yards. We make it Bengals -11.5; the market says -10.5. Tennessee's one real path is Tony Pollard, who ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns last week, against a Cincinnati front that has the league's best stuff rate at 27.1% and still concedes 4.7 a carry with seven runs of 20-plus. The reason we're not laying more is that Cincinnati can't run at all, with no carry longer than 15 yards all season, so there's no mechanism to bleed a lead in the fourth quarter. We took Tennessee last week and we're against them now on the matchup, not the result.

Arizona can't pressure a quarterback and can't finish a drive, and Dallas is built to punish precisely that. The Cardinals generate pressure on 24.7% of dropbacks, dead last in the league, against a Dallas line that has allowed one sack in three games, the best protection stretch in football, so Dak Prescott should play this one clean. Then there's the coverage: Arizona plays man on 9.1% of snaps and closes the middle of the field on only 21.9%, the most open middle in the league, and with Max Melton and Andrew Wingard both questionable on knees, Kei'Trel Clark and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson are the likely replacements behind a unit that's already surrendered 17 passing touchdowns and a 112.5 passer rating. CeeDee Lamb has 81 targets and George Pickens 58, and a defense that doesn't play man can't bracket either. On the ground Dallas ran for 204 yards in Philadelphia and Javonte Williams went for 155 the week before, into an Arizona front that's given up 5.3 a carry over three games with Walter Nolen questionable. We make it Cowboys -9; the market says -6.5 to -7. Arizona's counter is genuine and worth stating: Trey McBride leads the entire NFL in receptions and Dallas is down Marist Liufau with Dee Winters questionable at linebacker, and the Cowboys' own defense is 30th in EPA per play with three takeaways all season. It isn't enough, because the Cardinals have one touchdown in their last 10 red-zone trips, no rushing touchdown in three games and not one completion of 40 yards all year. We took Arizona last week and we're laying nine against them now because the number moved four points in our direction.

This is the best defense in football against an offense missing the two players it most needs this week. Minnesota leads the league in EPA per play, EPA per dropback, success rate, points allowed and interception rate, holds opponents to 180.8 passing yards and a 61.7 passer rating, and blitzes on 71.4% of dropbacks, a rate no other defense approaches. Brian Flores just set the Next Gen Stats-era record by blitzing Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones on 85.2% of his dropbacks last week, generating pressure on 60.9% of those and taking all four of his sacks off blitzes. The answers to that are hot routes from the slot and checkdowns to the back, which means Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, and both sat out Wednesday, while Jared Goff averages 1.3 yards a carry so there's no quarterback run to make an overloaded box pay. We make it Lions -1; the market says -3 to -3.5. T.J. Hockenson also walks into the softest tight-end matchup in the league in his old building, with Detroit allowing 100.3 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game to the position and both Thomas Harper and Avonte Maddox on injured reserve. Detroit's real counter is that blitzing 71% of the time leaves a light box, and opponents have averaged 4.9 a carry on the Vikings over three games, which is Gibbs's game if he's healthy, and Minnesota's own interior line has allowed nine sacks in three games with Donovan Jackson and Nick Samac on injured reserve. We laid Detroit last week and we're taking the dog against them now: Minnesota's offense is genuinely poor at 125 points in six games, and we're getting three and a half anyway.

Cleveland is 5-2 with a minus-13 point differential, which is the worst mark of any winning team in the league. All five wins came by one possession, four of them by exactly three points, and the Browns' largest margin of victory all season is 23-19. We make it Steelers -5; the market says -3.5. Pittsburgh's record flatters it too at 4-1 in one-score games, but the differential is plus 15 and the efficiency gap in Pittsburgh's favour is real. The specific lever is Cleveland's line, which is last in the league in adjusted sack rate and surrenders 11 percentage points more pressure than its down-and-distance situations predict, with Teven Jenkins on injured reserve and Tytus Howard in concussion protocol, which would put Dawand Jones at right tackle opposite T.J. Watt. What holds the number down, and why this is a lean rather than a play, is Pittsburgh's corner room: Daequan Hardy is on injured reserve, Donte Kent is out, and Jalen Ramsey and Brandin Echols are both questionable, on a unit already ranked 29th against wide receivers with Denzel Boston averaging 18.6 yards a catch. The run game is strength on strength the other way, with Jaylen Warren at 5.5 a carry but only 1.6 yards before contact, against the league's best run-stop win rate at 34%.

Tampa Bay is 2-5 with a positive point differential, 1-5 in one-score games and the worst luck in the league by Pythagorean wins, and the defense underneath that is third in EPA per play with eight interceptions, second-most in football. We make it Buccaneers -2.5; the market says -2.5, so this exists only at the shorter number. Atlanta's case is real: the Falcons generate pressure on 41.4% of dropbacks, the highest rate on the slate, and 40.7% of it without blitzing, and Luke Goedeke didn't practice with a calf, which puts Benjamin Chukwuma, a 2025 undrafted free agent, into his third career start at right tackle protecting the quarterback with the league's worst pressure-to-sack conversion at 28.3%. The problem is that Atlanta finishes almost none of what it creates, a 5.61% sack rate despite elite pressure, and Michael Penix faces the lowest pressure rate in the league at 14.0% against a Tampa rush that generates 29.5%, so the protection battle isn't one-way. Where Tampa actually wins is Bucky Irving against Atlanta's second level: the Falcons are 31st against running backs, have allowed 20 catches and two touchdowns to backs over their last two games, and Divine Deablo, who wears the green dot, didn't practice. Atlanta's passing game is Drake London with 616 yards and one touchdown and very little else, into a secondary ranked seventh against receivers, and Kenny Gainwell sitting out concentrates Tampa's backfield work on Irving.

This is a number call and we'll say so plainly: Indianapolis is a bad football team and the market has already moved five to six points to account for it. We make it Jaguars -9; the market says -9.5, which means the pick only exists at the longer price. Everything in the matchup points at Jacksonville. The Colts have the worst pass rush in the league at a 38% win rate and just traded DeForest Buckner and his four sacks to San Francisco, Trevor Lawrence sits second in the NFL in pass EPA per play behind a line that's allowed 10 sacks on 184 attempts, and the Colts' corner room is Charvarius Ward plus a calf-strained Sauce Gardner and Justin Walley, who didn't practice. Indianapolis also sent Quenton Nelson to Seattle on Tuesday, so Jalen Farmer starts at left guard on a line that allowed a 52% pressure rate at Minnesota. The counterweight is that Jacksonville gives up chunks: 27th in yards per play, 30th in explosive-play rate, 8.0 yards an attempt and 320 passing yards a game over its last three, with free safety Antonio Johnson the only Jaguar who sat out Wednesday and a rookie with no defensive snaps among the replacements. Jonathan Taylor against the league's best run defense is the honest strength-on-strength, and Jacksonville's run-stop win rate is only 26%, meaning they swarm and tackle rather than win at the line, which is the profile a patient 4.2-a-carry back can wear down over four quarters.

The Chargers have started four rookies on the offensive line and are without four of five projected starters, with Rashawn Slater, Tyler Biadasz, Trey Pipkins and Trevor Penning all on injured reserve. Justin Herbert is the second-most pressured quarterback in football at 45.8% of dropbacks, carries a 10.4% sack rate, and has 13 turnover-worthy plays for the highest rate in the league with nine of them coming in fourth quarters. We make it Rams -9; the market says -6.5. The honest counter belongs up front: this is the least threatening pass rush Herbert will face all season, because Los Angeles has 10 sacks, a 4% sack rate and not one sack from any defensive lineman all year, with Myles Garrett, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford all on injured reserve, and Joe Alt is expected back at right tackle to replace a rookie who graded 36.2 there. The reason that doesn't rescue the Chargers is coverage, where the Rams allow 167 passing yards a game and 6.0 an attempt and hold opposing number one receivers to the second-lowest fantasy points per target in the league, while Herbert has had zero open receivers on 39 dropbacks with Tre' Harris questionable, Ladd McConkey just back from a concussion and David Njoku on injured reserve. More time in the pocket doesn't manufacture separation. On the ground the Rams are first in run-block win rate at 77% with Kyren Williams at 5.1 a carry behind two full yards before contact, the best mark in this group, against a Chargers front that's fourth in run-stop win rate but has conceded nine rushing touchdowns. The way this gets close is Herbert's legs, 168 rushing yards with five explosive runs against a Rams interior down to Ty Hamilton, and the fact that Los Angeles is 32nd in special teams by DVOA and on its third kicker in three weeks.

Denver's 5-2 is the thinnest record on the board: a plus-3 point differential, a 4-0 mark in one-score games and 18th in net EPA, which is a .500-quality team sitting two games over. We make it Chiefs -1; the market says -1.5, so this is half a point and we'll treat it as such. The reason to take the points is that Denver's best unit got better while Kansas City's worst didn't move. Pat Surtain practiced in full after missing three games, and with him on the field Denver has played man coverage at 32 to 36% against 22.9% without him and blitzed more often, which is the lever against Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy with Rashee Rice questionable. Against that, Zach Allen didn't practice Wednesday with a hamstring, and he leads Denver with 4.5 sacks on a front that's third in pressure rate and second without blitzing, so the mechanism that makes this whole defense work is genuinely in doubt. Kansas City's run game is first in the league in rush EPA at 5.3 a carry with Kenneth Walker III at 5.8, and he ran for 173 yards against this same front in Week 1, into a Denver run defense that's 26th in rush EPA allowing 4.6 a carry. Denver's offense is the reason this isn't a play, 23rd in EPA with the league's worst average depth of target at 5.7 yards, a 31.1% third-down rate last week, and Jaylen Waddle, its leading target, sitting out Wednesday. We took Kansas City last week and we're taking points against them now because the number is a point and a half.

Miami is 1-5 with a minus-59 point differential and the worst coverage unit in football, allowing plus 0.28 EPA per pass and a 116.8 passer rating that leads the league, while generating one sack a game, which is also last. We make it Patriots -8.5; the market says -7. New England is a tight-end-and-slot offense, with Hunter Henry leading the team in receiving yards, DeMario Douglas leading it in targets and Rhamondre Stevenson at 20 catches out of the backfield, and Miami ranks 31st against tight ends by adjusted fantasy points allowed, the most exploitable positional matchup on the slate, with a rookie middle linebacker and three of its top four corners hurt. The Patriots also blitz at 40.2%, third in the league, and play sub package on 76% of snaps against a Miami line that allows pressure on 45.2% of dropbacks, dead last of 32, and is down starting lineman Kadyn Proctor to concussion protocol. The counter is real and it's why we're not laying more: New England has three interior linemen on injured reserve in Alijah Vera-Tucker, Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten, has used 10 line combinations this season, and Morgan Moses is working through a foot problem with Chop Robinson, who leads the NFL in pressure rate at 23.4%, lining up over that side. Drake Maye is also tied for the league lead with 10 turnovers including three end-zone interceptions, all three in losses, and Malik Willis is the most efficient runner in this game at 6.4 a carry against a Patriots front with the 29th-ranked stuff rate that missed 16 tackles at Chicago.

We're taking a team with no quarterback, no run game and no right tackle, and the case rests entirely on Washington not being equipped to collect. We make it Commanders -4; the market says -5.5. Philadelphia is 32nd in net EPA, Tanner McKee sits at minus 0.20 EPA per play with a 1.16% scramble rate that's the lowest on the slate, he went 8-for-18 for 73 yards against Carolina's blitz, and Washington blitzes on 42.5% of dropbacks, second in the league, which is exactly the wrong matchup for him. Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring and a back, Will Shipley and Tank Bigsby are on injured reserve, Lane Johnson is out with Markel Bell replacing a 92% pass-block win rate at right tackle, and the Eagles have gained 874 yards across their four-game losing streak, their fewest in any four-game span since 1999. The other side of it is that Washington has allowed 11 sacks in three games for a 9.7% rate, the worst stretch on this slate, sits dead last in run-block win rate at 68%, lost Terry McLaurin for the season and Laremy Tunsil until around December, and starts a nickel in Mike Sainristil who grades last of 103 qualified corners with five touchdowns allowed on 18 targets. Jayden Daniels is the one who can win this outright, second in the league at 0.55 EPA per play when he's kept clean and 8.5 yards a carry on the ground, against a Philadelphia defense with the worst sack rate in football at 3.2% that just gave up 204 rushing yards to Dallas. That's why the number is the pick rather than the team, and if DeVonta Smith and Barkley are both ruled out on Friday this gets thinner still.

Seattle's record understates them and we'll say it up front: a plus-43 point differential, second in defensive EPA, 2-3 in one-score games, and Sam Darnold's league-leading eight interceptions are most of the reason this is 4-3 rather than better. We make it Seahawks -2; the market says -3 to -3.5. Seattle's defense generates pressure on 45.2% of dropbacks, second in the league, while blitzing on only 20.9%, which ranks 31st, and it stops the run from the lightest front in football, a league-low 15.9% heavy-box rate with 3.5 yards a carry allowed and no 100-yard rusher all season. That is precisely the defense built to erase Chicago's model, which is league-high run volume at 246 attempts and 154.3 yards a game plus clock control, and Kyle Monangai, the efficient back at 5.4 a carry, is week-to-week. Chicago's path is the other line: the Bears carry the highest defensive sack rate on the slate at 8.9% with Montez Sweat back from suspension aligning over a left tackle spot where Charles Cross is doubtful with a high ankle sprain and Quenton Nelson's availability after Tuesday's trade hasn't been settled, and Darnold is second-worst in the league in EPA per dropback when pressured at minus 0.63. The problem is Chicago's own secondary, last in the league in yards per attempt allowed at 8.7 with Malik Muhammad questionable, which is the wrong weakness to carry against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads all receivers in catches, yards and touchdowns while absorbing 34.5% of Seattle's targets. We're taking the three and a half because Chicago's defense outranks Seattle's offense in all six EPA and success-rate categories, not because we think the Bears are the better team.