NFL Week 9 picks against the spread, 2026

Baltimore's third quarterback is an undrafted rookie with a brace on his ankle whose one NFL appearance was 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception. Joe Fagnano makes his first start because Lamar Jackson's thumb reportedly needs surgery and is sending him to injured reserve, and because Tyler Huntley's turf toe is reportedly ending his season. That lands on a Jacksonville defense that's second in scoring at 15.9 a game and first in the league against the run at 3.4 a carry, which takes away the one thing Baltimore can still do: Derrick Henry has 158 carries at 4.0 with eight scores, and the Ravens need him to control the night. DaVon Hamilton's season-ending injury thins that Jaguars front, so Henry will find more than the raw rank suggests, but Jacksonville can play two deep all night against a quarterback who has thrown 21 NFL passes. The other half matters too, because Trevor Lawrence is having the best year of his career at 8.5 a throw with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, and Parker Washington (27 for 432) and Jakobi Meyers, questionable with a hamstring, have carried the volume while Brian Thomas Jr. sits at 10 catches. Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith are why this isn't 14: Baltimore is 15th in yards allowed per play and can hold a game at 20-10 for three quarters. We make it Jaguars -10.5; the market says -9.5, so this is a one-point disagreement and a medium play, not a statement.

Cincinnati is second in the league in scoring at 29.4 a game and first in the NFL on third down at 52.9%, and Joe Burrow's 20 touchdowns against six interceptions at 7.9 a throw is the best quarterback play in this game by a distance. Atlanta counters with Michael Penix Jr. at 7.6 a throw with nine touchdowns and five interceptions, and a defense that's 19th in opponent third-down rate, which is the exact soft spot a Burrow offense lives in. Madrid means neither side gets home field, so this is a straight talent question on a neutral field. Atlanta's path is Bijan Robinson and it's a real one: 150 carries at 5.2 a crack against a Bengals front that's 29th in yards allowed per rush at 4.8, so if the Falcons stay on schedule and make this 24-21, three points is plenty. What we don't believe is that Atlanta can keep up through the air, because Drake London has one touchdown on 63 targets and two Falcons offensive linemen are on reserve lists in front of a Cincinnati front that's third in sacks per game at 3.3. James Pearce Jr. is back from suspension after leading Atlanta with 10.5 sacks a year ago, and he's the one new thing on this card that argues the other way, but Burrow has been sacked just 13 times in seven games. We make it Bengals -7; the market says -3, the widest gap on the board and our top play.

Dallas has to win by a touchdown on the road with the 31st run defense in football, and Indianapolis has Jonathan Taylor. The Cowboys allow 5.0 yards a carry, 26.6 points a game and a staggering 51.4% on third down, which is last in the league, so the way to beat them is to keep the ball, and Taylor's 148 carries for 610 yards and eight scores behind Bernhard Raimann is exactly that script. Daniel Jones has been the problem, nine interceptions and 22 sacks taken in eight games at 5.8 a throw, so this isn't a case for Indianapolis winning the game; it's a case against a two-score road favorite. Dallas is legitimate on offense, Dak Prescott at 14 touchdowns and five picks with CeeDee Lamb at 709 yards and George Pickens at 533, and Javonte Williams and his eight rushing touchdowns will find room against a Colts front missing Micheal Clemons and Arden Key. The reason the Indianapolis injury list doesn't scare us is that Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward are both healthy at corner, so the Cam Taylor-Britt and Cameron Mitchell losses are depth rather than starters. We're on the Colts for a second straight week after they lost 42-7, and the reason is the number and the run-defense matchup, not anything that happened Sunday. We make it Cowboys -3; the market says -6.

There's no edge here and we'll say so plainly: we make it Chiefs -9.5 and the market says -9.5. The reason we'll take the points anyway is that the Jets move the ball and Kansas City doesn't get to the quarterback. New York is fifth in the league at 8.0 yards per pass attempt with Geno Smith at 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, and the Chiefs are 29th in sacks per game at 1.3 with George Karlaftis at two on the season, so Smith should see clean pockets. What has buried the Jets all year is the red zone, 42.3% and last in the NFL, and that's the flaw that turns a competitive afternoon into a 10-point loss. Kansas City's cover is Kenneth Walker III, 770 yards at 5.5 a carry behind the league's best rushing efficiency at 5.1 a play, against a Jets run defense that's 14th at 4.0, plus a red-zone defense that's third in football at 38.9%. The Jets can answer on the ground with Braelon Allen at 565 yards and 5.0 a carry and Breece Hall expected back from a quad, which is how a double-digit dog stays inside two scores. Garrett Wilson is questionable with a concussion and he's the one receiver who changes the math, so this is a coin flip by our own number and we're taking the dog because that's the side a 10-point line makes you earn.

Miami is 32nd in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.9 and 29th in sacks per game at 1.3, which is the worst possible pairing to put in front of Jared Goff, who's at 7.9 a throw with 15 touchdowns and one interception. Detroit's offense is third in scoring at 29.0 with Jahmyr Gibbs at 773 rushing yards and Amon-Ra St. Brown at 53 catches, and there's no plausible Dolphins answer in coverage. The reason this isn't a bigger number is Detroit's own back end and front: Kerby Joseph is out, D.J. Reed is questionable, Avonte Maddox and Thomas Harper are on injured reserve, Jack Campbell is doubtful after leading the team in tackles, and two offensive line starters are out with the center questionable. Miami's run path is Ollie Gordon II at 408 yards and 4.5 a carry plus Malik Willis's legs, 36 carries for 225 yards and three scores, and against a thinned Detroit front that's how the Dolphins keep this a game. De'Von Achane's torn ACL is the hole nobody fills, Miami is 31st in scoring at 16.7 and 1-6 with no home wins, and 27-16 is the likeliest version of the afternoon. We make it Lions -8.5; the market says -7.

Cleveland's offense is 29th in scoring at 17.4, 31st in the red zone at 42.9%, and its quarterback has been sacked 33 times in eight games. Deshaun Watson is in the concussion protocol after symptoms surfaced Monday night, so Shedeur Sanders is in line for his first start of the season, and this pick doesn't need that to resolve: with Watson we make it Saints -3.5, with Sanders -5, and the market sits at -2.5 either way. New Orleans is second in the league at converting red-zone trips at 77.3% with Chris Olave at 636 yards and Tyler Shough at 13 touchdowns, and Chase Young's seven sacks go to work on a Browns line without Teven Jenkins. The case against laying anything is the Saints defense, 29th in points allowed and 30th on third down, plus a run game gone dead with Travis Etienne Jr. still on injured reserve, though he could be activated this week, and Alvin Kamara at 3.0 a carry, which means Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. can keep Cleveland within a score. The Browns defense is the real thing, 11th in yards per play and eighth in opponent red-zone rate, and that's why this number is small rather than six. We make it Saints -4.5; the market says -2.5, and getting to lay 2.5 instead of 3 is the reason this ranks.

The Giants let people score touchdowns once they get close, 77.8% in the red zone and 29th in the league, and Philadelphia converts its own trips at 71.4%, fourth best. That's the narrow path for an Eagles team that is otherwise broken: 30th in scoring, 32nd in yards per play, Jalen Hurts out for the season with blood clots and Lane Johnson out. Tanner McKee has three starts at 5.6 a throw with two touchdowns and two interceptions, which is as bad as it sounds, and what makes it survivable is that New York can't rush the passer: edge rusher Brian Burns, defensive end Chauncey Golston, tackle Roy Robertson-Harris and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds are all on injured reserve, and the Giants are 29th in sacks per game at 1.3. Saquon Barkley is averaging 4.9 a carry on only 56 attempts, and if Philadelphia hands it to him 25 times against a Giants run defense allowing 4.8 (27th), this is a 17-13 game. New York's run game is the question going the other way, with Cam Skattebo questionable and Tyrone Tracy Jr. on injured reserve, which leaves Jameis Winston (seven touchdowns, five interceptions, 15 sacks taken in six games) throwing to Malik Nabers against a Philadelphia corner room where Jonathan Jones, Michael Carter II and Tariq Castro-Fields are all questionable. We make it Eagles +0.5; the market says +3.5. We had Eagles +5.5 last week and lost by 11.5, and we're back on them because the number moved nine points on the Hurts news and the Giants' front is in pieces, not because we're owed anything.

Washington has lost all three starting defensive tackles, Daron Payne, Jer'Zhan Newton and Javon Kinlaw, to injured reserve, and Laremy Tunsil and Terry McLaurin are gone too, which is a lot of a football team. What that costs them specifically is the ability to hold the point of attack, and Kyren Williams (548 yards at 4.9) behind a Rams offense that's fifth in yards per rush is the way to make a thin interior look worse. Washington's reply is Jayden Daniels, who has 236 rushing yards on 27 carries in five games and is the Commanders' run game as much as anybody, against a Rams defense that's lost Myles Garrett, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford and sits 28th in sacks per game at 1.5, so Daniels will have time and grass. Washington is also 30th in opponent red-zone rate at 79.2%, which is how a favorite covers a number this size. The hesitation is Matthew Stafford's throwing arm: he left Sunday with ice on his right elbow, he's questionable, Sean McVay says there's no concern, and if Stetson Bennett IV starts then this number is three or four points different and the pick is dead. We make it Rams -6 with Stafford playing; the market says -5.5, so it's a half-point lean and we're calling it that rather than dressing it up.

Carolina is playing without both starting tackles, Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton, with Damien Lewis and Corey Bullock questionable inside, and Bryce Young has already been sacked 23 times in seven games behind the healthy version of that line. What the Panthers lose with those two out is the edge of the run game and any chance of holding up on true dropbacks, against a Denver front that's sixth in sacks per game at 2.9 with Zach Allen at 4.5. Here is Carolina's answer if the rush doesn't get home, and it's a decent one: Chuba Hubbard has 540 yards at 4.6 a carry, Tetairoa McMillan has 569 receiving yards, and Young has been good this season at 7.1 a throw with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, so a quick game that gets the ball out in under two seconds beats this plan. The reason we can't lay more is Denver's offense, 27th in yards per play and 32nd on third down at 29.7%, with Bo Nix at 6.0 a throw and J.K. Dobbins at 3.3 a carry, so the Broncos have to win 20-13. Denver's defense is tenth in yards per play, eighth in opponent red-zone rate and allows 20.6 a game, which is how a bad offense covers a small number. We make it Broncos -4; the market says -2.5.

The Chargers are 0-7 and the reason is right in front of them: Rashawn Slater, Trey Pipkins III, Trevor Penning and Tyler Biadasz are all on injured reserve, Isaiah World is out, and Justin Herbert has been sacked 23 times in seven games with 10 interceptions. Houston is the wrong opponent for that, fifth in sacks per game at 3.0 with Will Anderson Jr. at 7.5 and Danielle Hunter at four, and we're not going to pretend Los Angeles has an answer up front. What we will say is that the Texans don't have the offense to cash a 4.5-point number: Houston can't run at 3.6 a carry (29th), David Montgomery hasn't played since Week 5 and is unlikely again, and the receiving room is down to Nico Collins and Xavier Hutchinson with Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins on injured reserve. C.J. Stroud has been excellent, 11 touchdowns and one interception at 7.6 a throw, but the Chargers defense is fourth in opponent third-down rate at 30.6% and tenth in opponent red-zone rate, and with a 40.5 total every stalled drive is a field goal instead of seven. Omarion Hampton at 3.5 a carry won't control anything, so the Chargers' path is Herbert getting it out quickly to Ladd McConkey and the defense holding Houston near 20. We make it Texans -3; the market says -4.5, and the line has moved six points off the open. We laid against this Chargers team last week and won; taking them now is a number call, not a change of heart.

This is the second game where we have no edge: we make it Patriots -3 and the market says -3. New England's passing offense is second in the league at 8.5 yards per attempt with Drake Maye at 15 touchdowns, and Green Bay's coverage is third at 5.7 allowed, so the game turns on whether the Packers' front can win anything without Micah Parsons, who tore an ACL, and without Javon Hargrave and Edgerrin Cooper. New England has the mirror-image problem, with Mike Onwenu, Greg Van Roten and Alijah Vera-Tucker all on injured reserve, which is three guards and a reason Maye has taken 16 sacks. Green Bay cannot run the football at all, 2.9 yards a carry and dead last, with MarShawn Lloyd at 2.6 and Jordan Love adding nothing on the ground, so Love has to throw it 35 times against a Patriots defense that's ninth in scoring at 20.3. Rhamondre Stevenson at 3.8 a carry plus Maye's own 46 rushes for 216 yards and three scores is New England's run game, and that's the quiet way the Patriots control a game they don't dominate. A.J. Brown is questionable with an ankle and has missed five games, Hunter Henry is questionable and TreVeyon Henderson has an illness, so New England's skill group is as uncertain as Green Bay's with Christian Watson playing on a broken rib. Watson is the Packers' leading receiver at 708 yards, and if he can't finish the game this number is wrong by a point in the other direction.

Seattle has the best defense in the league by yards allowed per play at 4.2 and by yards allowed per pass attempt at 5.1, and Arizona is starting Gardner Minshew II, named the Week 9 starter over Jacoby Brissett with rookie Carson Beck as the backup. The Cardinals have no running backs: James Conner, Trey Benson and rookie Jeremiyah Love are all on injured reserve, Bam Knight is headed for the concussion protocol, and Tyler Allgeier's 72 carries for 323 yards is the whole plan. Their one real weapon is Trey McBride, 66 catches on 85 targets for 544 yards and five touchdowns, and a tight end working the middle is how you move the ball on a defense built to take away the perimeter, so Arizona won't be shut out. The reason we'll take the points instead of laying them is Seattle's red-zone defense, which is 32nd in the league at 83.3%: the Seahawks keep you out of there and allow 19.9 a game, but they give up touchdowns once you arrive, and that is how a dog survives a two-score number. Seattle's own offense is 18th in yards per play with Sam Darnold at nine interceptions, and almost all of it is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 985 yards and nine touchdowns in eight games, against an Arizona secondary without Will Johnson. Emanuel Wilson's 403 rushing yards behind a line with Charles Cross questionable is Seattle's path to 30, and Walter Nolen III being questionable for Arizona makes that easier. We make it Seahawks -11; the market says -11.5, half a point and a lean.

Tampa Bay runs the ball better than anybody in the league at 168.6 yards a game, with Bucky Irving at 728 yards and 5.0 a carry and a team average of 5.1 that's second in football. Chicago's defense is 31st in yards allowed per play at 6.0 and 31st in yards per pass attempt at 7.7, and while the Bears are first in the NFL in opponent third-down rate at 23.8%, the way to beat a bend-but-don't-break defense is to never hand it a third down. Chicago just traded for Jeffery Simmons to fix the interior, but Grady Jarrett is questionable with a groin while Dayo Odeyingbo and left tackle Braxton Jones are on injured reserve, so the front is in flux at the worst time. Going the other way, Tampa's defense is fifth in scoring at 18.9, fifth in yards per play at 4.9 and has 16 takeaways, tied for second in the league, against a Caleb Williams offense that has been efficient in his five games at 8.0 a throw with six touchdowns and one interception, and D'Andre Swift's 10 rushing touchdowns are Chicago's run path and a real one. The honest problem with this pick is that Tampa Bay cannot throw: they're last in the NFL at 5.7 yards per pass attempt, Baker Mayfield is just back from a dislocated right thumb and has attempted 14 passes in two games, and Emeka Egbuka is questionable with a foot injury, which leaves Chris Godwin Jr. and his 243 yards as the top target. We make it Bears -4; the market says -6.5, and we'll take a run-game and turnover edge against a defense that gives up six yards a snap.

Minnesota has the best scoring defense in football at 13.3 a game, the most sacks per game at 3.6 and the best red-zone defense in the league at 25%, and Buffalo has the best offense at 33.3 points and 8.7 yards per pass attempt. That's the game, and the market says the Bills win it by a field goal on the road. Josh Allen is Buffalo's run game as much as James Cook III is, 55 carries for 270 yards and nine rushing touchdowns next to Cook's 707 at 5.1, and that's the specific problem for a Vikings front built to make a quarterback hold the ball rather than to chase one who leaves the pocket. Minnesota's trouble is the other side: 27th in scoring at 20.0 and 29th in yards per play, with Kyler Murray questionable on a hamstring and Christian Darrisaw questionable at left tackle. Carson Wentz has been fine in relief, three touchdowns and no interceptions with a 106.4 rating in two games, so the quarterback question costs less here than it looks, which is why we'll take the points without needing Friday's news. Aaron Jones Sr. at 458 yards and Justin Jefferson at 335 in six games have to produce something, and with DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer both questionable for Buffalo this profiles as a 20-17 night where a field goal decides the number. We make it Bills -3; the market says -3.5, a half-point lean on Minnesota for the second week running.