College Football Playoff projection after Week 10, 2026

Georgia has the best set of wins in the country and added another Saturday night: 42-7 at Ole Miss, 28-0 at halftime, ending the Rebels' 16-game home winning streak. It also won 20-17 at Alabama and beat Oklahoma 41-13 and Florida 27-8 in Jacksonville. The only loss is 27-24 at home to Auburn on Oct. 17.

Missouri comes to Athens on Saturday (we give Georgia 88 percent), then it's a trip to South Carolina (77) and Georgia Tech. Georgia reaches Atlanta in 96 percent of our simulations and wins the SEC in 52, usually in a rematch with Alabama. With Miami's loss it's our No. 1 seed, and it gets a bye in 83 percent of simulations.

Miami's first loss came Saturday night, 31-24 at Notre Dame, in its first game without injured receiver Malachi Toney. It trailed 24-3 in the third quarter, and Darian Mensah's three touchdown passes twice got it within seven before a fourth-down catch in the end zone was ruled incomplete. Its best wins are 33-20 at Wake Forest and 41-13 at Clemson.

The loss doesn't count in the ACC, where Miami is 6-0 with Duke (86 percent), Virginia Tech (95) and Boston College (99) left, all at home. It reaches Charlotte in essentially every simulation and wins the league in 72 percent. A 12-1 champion whose only loss came at Notre Dame should keep a bye, and Miami gets one in 77 percent of our simulations.

Utah is 9-0 after beating BYU 28-20: Devon Dampier accounted for four touchdowns, and the defense intercepted Bear Bachmeier four times and shut out the Cougars in the second half. Its other best wins are 21-13 over Houston and 49-25 at Cincinnati. The schedule is the weak spot, 69th in the country by ESPN's measure, but the committee had Utah third and it gave it no reason to drop.

The hardest game left is Saturday at Arizona, where we give Utah 60 percent. Then it's at TCU (72) and West Virginia (90). Utah reaches Arlington in 96 percent of our simulations and wins the Big 12 in 54. Losing there usually isn't fatal: it makes the field in 89 percent.

Indiana is 8-1, and its only loss is 19-15 at home to Ohio State on Oct. 17. The offense hasn't been the same since: 13-6 in overtime at Michigan, then 23-16 in overtime over Minnesota, where Curt Cignetti turned to backup Grant Wilson at halftime and Wilson threw the winning touchdown. Josh Hoover has been banged up since the Ohio State game, and Cignetti hasn't said who starts after the bye.

USC comes to Bloomington on Saturday (we give Indiana 73 percent), then it's at Washington (80) and Purdue (94). Indiana reaches Indianapolis in 81 percent of our simulations, most often against UCLA, and wins the Big Ten in 53. The committee had it fourth, and a 12-1 Big Ten champion keeps that spot in our projection.

The committee had Notre Dame 11th last week because, Hunter Yurachek said, it lacked a signature win. It got the best one available Saturday night: 31-24 over No. 1 Miami, with CJ Carr throwing for 319 yards and three touchdowns. The only loss is 28-24 at BYU, and ESPN's index rates the Irish the best team in the country.

Boston College, SMU and a trip to Syracuse are left, and we make Notre Dame at least an 89 percent favorite in each. It's in 98 percent of our simulations but gets a bye in only 12, because it has no 13th game. If Miami finishes 12-1, the head-to-head result gives the committee a reason to rank the Irish ahead of it; we have them fifth, hosting a first-round game.

Alabama won 31-13 at LSU on Saturday, with Keelon Russell throwing three touchdown passes through an ankle injury and the defense stopping LSU on all four of its fourth-down tries. With 45-17 at Kentucky and 49-18 over South Carolina, it has played the hardest schedule in the country by ESPN's measure. The losses are 20-17 to Georgia and 26-10 at Tennessee.

Vanderbilt on the road (94 percent), Chattanooga and Auburn (91) are left, and Alabama reaches Atlanta in 80 percent of our simulations, usually for a Georgia rematch. They give it a bye 75 percent of the time because our stand-in counts a title-game loss as half a loss. We expect the committee to rank a 10-3 Alabama behind the four champions we project and Notre Dame, so it's sixth.

Texas rallied past Missouri 34-20 on Saturday with three unanswered second-half touchdowns, its third win in a row. It owns one of the best wins on the board, 24-23 over Ohio State in Week 2, and also beat Ole Miss 34-27 and won 20-17 at Tennessee. Both losses were by three: to Oklahoma in Dallas and to Florida at home.

Saturday at LSU is the swing game, and we make Texas a slight underdog (47 percent). Then it's Arkansas at home (96) and a trip to Texas A&M (72). Texas makes the field in 84 percent of our simulations, and 9-3 is its likeliest finish. As the No. 7 seed it would host Tennessee in a rematch of its win in Knoxville.

UCLA is 9-0 in Bob Chesney's first season and first in ESPN's strength-of-record measure, with wins at Oregon (17-15) and over Wisconsin (17-7). Quarterback Nico Iamaleava's season ended with a knee injury in the Oregon game on Oct. 10, and Ty Dieffenbach has won all four of his starts since, the latest 34-20 at Minnesota on two 75-yard touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.

The finish is the test: Illinois on Friday night (we give UCLA 69 percent), then at Michigan (53) and USC (51). It reaches the Big Ten title game in 66 percent of our simulations but wins it in only 18, and it makes the field in 60. As the No. 8 seed it would host a first-round game at the Rose Bowl, its home stadium.

Wake Forest is 8-1, and its only loss is 33-20 at home to Miami. It has won at Louisville (30-27) and NC State (38-14), but it hasn't beaten a ranked team, which is why the committee had it 16th. Saturday's 77-0 win over FCS Merrimack came with backup Steele Pizzella at quarterback; starter Gio Lopez hurt his right knee against Virginia and hopes to play this week.

Saturday at SMU (we give Wake 60 percent) is the biggest of its three ACC games left, followed by Georgia Tech on the road (91) and Duke (71). Wake reaches Charlotte in 76 percent of our simulations and makes the field in 62. Beat Miami there and the bid is automatic; lose and it's on the bubble at 11-2.

Tennessee beat Kentucky 34-6 on Saturday night, forcing three turnovers and holding the Wildcats to two field goals. That gives it two of the best wins on the bubble, with 26-10 over Alabama. The losses are 20-17 at home to Texas and 27-24 at South Carolina two weeks ago.

It's the last team we put in, and a close call: Tennessee and Kentucky each make the field in 39 percent of our simulations. We've taken Tennessee for the head-to-head win and a likelier 9-3 finish (Kentucky's is 8-4). Its own finish is hard: at Texas A&M on Saturday (58 percent), LSU at home (46) and at Vanderbilt (85).

Ole Miss lost 42-7 at home to Georgia on Saturday night, trailing 28-0 at halftime, and coach Pete Golding said afterward that his staff hadn't had the team ready. It's 6-3, with losses at Florida (52-28) and Texas (34-27) and wins over LSU (32-24), Missouri (31-3) and Louisville (41-38). Its schedule ranks second in the country by ESPN's measure.

What keeps it in is the finish: at Oklahoma (we give Ole Miss 56 percent), Wofford and Mississippi State (83). It makes the field in 41 percent of our simulations, more than anyone else on the bubble, but a 9-3 Ole Miss would be one of the last teams in. The committee had it 10th; after Saturday we expect it to fall behind Tennessee.

Boise State is 8-1 and 5-0 in the Pac-12, with its only loss 34-27 at Oregon in the opener and eight straight wins since, including 38-20 over Memphis and 38-31 at Fresno State. On Saturday it beat Colorado State 64-38 with backup Max Cutforth throwing four touchdown passes in place of injured starter Maddux Madsen.

It gets the Group of Six bid in 79 percent of our simulations; New Mexico, 8-1 and in the AP poll for the first time in school history, is next at 17. Oregon State on Saturday (we give Boise 75 percent) is the main danger before San Diego State and the Pac-12 title game on Dec. 4. The committee had it 25th, so it would be seeded 12th and play at the No. 5 seed.