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Picks against the spread

Week 2 picks · Cashed

Will Reichard's three field goals are all of it as Vikings +5.5 cashes

Cashed

The market jumped the total four points to 49.5 chasing Chicago's 59-point explosion, and these two combined for twelve. That was the whole thesis and it landed. Will Reichard kicked three field goals and that was every Minnesota point in a 9-3 win. Chicago never found the end zone either, and a blocked 23-yard field goal kept it out of reach. Vikings won outright as 5.5-point dogs, so the cover came by 11.5. When the public overreacts to one box score, take the points.

win Vikings 9, Bears 3

The pick: Vikings +5.5 at Bears

The case before kickoff

The lookahead line was Bears -3, so the market has priced in both a quarterback downgrade and a 59-point overreaction. Carson Wentz is no disaster: he went 12-of-19 for 133 yards and three touchdowns in relief to lead the comeback. O'Connell hasn't ruled Murray out and said he arrived Monday feeling "pretty good", so you're also getting a free option on Kyler clearing protocol. The total jumping four points to 49.5 tells you how much the market is chasing that Bears offense.

Reporting: Chicago Bears · Sports Illustrated

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