Aaron Rodgers' fumble returned for a score as Patriots -5 wins 20-3

Lowest conviction on the card and it was the cleanest result of the day. I said New England had three quarters of the handle despite losing the ticket count, and that a team that fell by three in Seattle was better than the one that squeaked past a backup. Pittsburgh scored three points. Aaron Rodgers lost a fumble that New England returned for a touchdown and was pulled for Mason Rudolph before the end. Laid five, won by 17, cover by 12. Sometimes the lean is the best bet on the board.

Pittsburgh has the ticket advantage, but New England has three-quarters of the handle and the line moved toward the Patriots. New England lost by three at Seattle against the best defense in the conference, while Pittsburgh needed everything to beat a backup quarterback by seven. It's a low-conviction lean, because A.J. Brown is on IR and a 42 total makes five points a lot.