Week 7 picks · Mea culpa
Szmyt's walk-off 32-yarder beats Titans +2 by a single point in Nashville
Mea culpa
Browns 27, Titans 24 on Andres Szmyt's 32-yard kick as time expired, which is as close as a one-point miss gets. The premise was Tennessee's pass rush eating a patchwork Cleveland line. Deshaun Watson was sacked once, the fewest the Browns have allowed all year, and he threw for 308 in a 491-yard afternoon. Credit the other side: Tony Pollard ran for 129 and three scores and tied it with 58 seconds left. We had the points and watched them kicked away. Lost by three, needed two.
loss Browns 27, Titans 24
The pick: Titans +2 vs Browns
The case before kickoff
Deshaun Watson has been sacked 24 times, the most in the NFL, behind a line that starts rookies at left tackle and right guard, had Elgton Jenkins sit out Wednesday at center with a knee and Tytus Howard limited at right tackle, and has not had Teven Jenkins at all this year. Jeffery Simmons has 4.0 sacks and 26 hurries, Jermaine Johnson II has 3.0, and the Titans just produced six sacks and 25 pressures against Indianapolis. That is the most lopsided pressure matchup on the board, and it is why a 1-5 team is this close to a 4-2 team. The counterweight is that Tennessee cannot score: last in the NFL in total yards at 236.3 a game, last in passing at 153.5 and tied for last in scoring at 14.0, against a Cleveland defense eighth in passing yards allowed, sixth in PFF coverage grade and second in pressure rate at 42.5%. Cam Ward had career lows of 11 completions for 102 yards in the Indianapolis win, and that win came on a blocked punt returned for a score. So this is a team that cannot protect against a team that cannot score, and at a number this short we will take the points and nothing more. We make it Browns -0.5; the market says -1.5. Grant Delpit's concussion is still unresolved for Cleveland.
Reporting: AP via ABC News · Cleveland Browns official recap · NFL.com Week 7 What We Learned