NFL Week 7 picks against the spread, 2026

New England runs it 31.2 times a game, second-most in the league, into a Bears linebacker room without Jack Sanborn (concussion) and almost certainly without T.J. Edwards (doubtful, hamstring). Chicago already allows 4.49 yards a carry, 24th, and ranks 25th in rushing success rate allowed, and that unit has been propped up by facing the fewest rushing attempts in football, which is the one thing the Patriots won't do. The reason this is only a lean is the other trench: New England starts Walter Rouse at left guard in his first NFL start and Matt Pryor, a tackle by ESPN's listing, sliding inside to right guard as the fourth different starter there in seven games, with rookie Caleb Lomu possible at right tackle if Morgan Moses' foot keeps him down, against Chicago's 9.0% sack rate, second in the NFL. Kyler Gordon makes it worse: in a 17-snap season debut he rushed on nine of them and turned three pressures into three sacks, and Chicago blitzed 53.8% of pass snaps with him on the field against a 36.0% season average. Drake Maye is the counter, with 10 touchdowns to one interception over his last three games and a 4.2% pressure-to-sack rate, which is why we'd rather take the points than lay them. We make it Bears -2.5; the market says -3. This is a Thursday game, so Wednesday's report is the final one and there are no Friday designations to wait on.

Jaylen Warren is the best thing on this field: 460 yards at 5.5 a carry, seventh in the NFL, with an 85.6 PFF rushing grade that ranks fourth of 44 backs and 4.09 yards after contact per attempt, against a New Orleans run defense allowing 138.0 yards a game, 30th, at 4.8 a carry, with 11 rushing touchdowns surrendered, the most in football. Atlanta ran for 205 yards and five scores on them three weeks ago, and Davon Godchaux's 36.0 PFF run-defense grade ranks 119th of 128 interior defenders. So why not lay the points. Because Pittsburgh's secondary is held together with tape: Jalen Ramsey is playing through a broken wrist and did not practice Wednesday, Brandin Echols is new to the report with a hamstring and also sat, and Joey Porter Jr. is in Dallas, which leaves Jamel Dean, Asante Samuel Jr. and rookie Daylen Everette against Chris Olave, second in the NFL with 580 receiving yards. Tyler Shough has been sacked more than any quarterback in the league, his left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. is out and Cesar Ruiz did not practice, so T.J. Watt and Chase Young both have runway, which is the shape of a game that stays close. This is a neutral site at the Stade de France, so neither side gets home field in our number, and the Saints have been practicing in Paris since Monday while Pittsburgh lands Friday, a real asymmetry we are deliberately not pricing. We make it Steelers -3; the market says -3.5, and half a point past a key number is the whole of this.

San Francisco has allowed five sacks all season on 171 attempts, the best protection in football, and Atlanta is rushing the passer with a 3.5-sack Za'Darius Smith and a 2.5-sack Samson Ebukam after losing Jalon Walker to a torn ACL in training camp. The other end of that is worse for Atlanta: Chicago pressured Michael Penix Jr. on 56.4% of his dropbacks last week and sacked him five times, three of them by a blitzing slot corner, and Bijan Robinson said himself that his blitz pickup has to improve. Penix is the starter, for the avoidance of doubt, with Atlanta's own Week 7 depth chart listing him first, Tua Tagovailoa second and newly signed Andy Dalton third and expected to be inactive while he learns the offense. Brock Purdy is tied for the NFL lead with 14 touchdown passes against two interceptions, and Raheem Morris returns to Mercedes-Benz Stadium as the opposing coordinator with a defense that allows the fewest explosive plays in the league, sits fourth in points at 18.3 and held Washington to 53 rushing yards. We make it 49ers -6.5; the market says -3, and the gap is the biggest on the board. Here is the honest version of why: the market has walked this from 49ers -4.5 at the lookahead because Mike Evans (Achilles tendinitis) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) both sat Wednesday and Nick Bosa still has not played since Week 2, and our rulebook caps a two-receiver cluster at a point and a half where the market is clearly taking more. Price it that way and this is a 2.5-point edge instead of 3.5, which is the same side either way.

Deshaun Watson has been sacked 24 times, the most in the NFL, behind a line that starts rookies at left tackle and right guard, had Elgton Jenkins sit out Wednesday at center with a knee and Tytus Howard limited at right tackle, and has not had Teven Jenkins at all this year. Jeffery Simmons has 4.0 sacks and 26 hurries, Jermaine Johnson II has 3.0, and the Titans just produced six sacks and 25 pressures against Indianapolis. That is the most lopsided pressure matchup on the board, and it is why a 1-5 team is this close to a 4-2 team. The counterweight is that Tennessee cannot score: last in the NFL in total yards at 236.3 a game, last in passing at 153.5 and tied for last in scoring at 14.0, against a Cleveland defense eighth in passing yards allowed, sixth in PFF coverage grade and second in pressure rate at 42.5%. Cam Ward had career lows of 11 completions for 102 yards in the Indianapolis win, and that win came on a blocked punt returned for a score. So this is a team that cannot protect against a team that cannot score, and at a number this short we will take the points and nothing more. We make it Browns -0.5; the market says -1.5. Grant Delpit's concussion is still unresolved for Cleveland.

Brian Flores blitzes on 71% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the league and 25 points clear of second place, and Daniel Jones has the most turnover-worthy plays of 35 qualified quarterbacks with 15, a 16.9% pressure-to-sack rate, and both right-side offensive line starters on the Wednesday report with Matt Goncalves not practicing and Jalen Travis limited. Minnesota is first in the NFL in points allowed at 12.8 with 10 takeaways in five games. All of that is why the number is 6.5 and why we have no edge on it. The reason to take the points anyway is that Minnesota cannot score: 21.8 points a game, 22nd, 938 passing yards in five games which is the worst figure in football, and 27th in offensive EPA per play. Kyler Murray is averaging five carries and 23 rushing yards a game, so the Arizona version of his legs is not part of this offense. A 20-10 win covers this and a 20-13 win does not, and Minnesota's five games say the second is at least as likely as the first. We make it Vikings -6.5; the market says -6.5, which is the only game on the board where we have nothing. Tyler Warren's groin is a Friday call and the tight ends who replaced him last week managed three catches for 21 yards, so Indianapolis is the side that improves if the news breaks either way.

Miami has four sacks in five games, dead last in the league, and all four came in one game against Kyler Murray in Week 4. That matters more than it sounds, because the Jets' one structural flaw is Geno Smith taking sacks nobody else would take: a 25.4% pressure-to-sack rate, second-highest of 31 qualified quarterbacks against a 16.5% league average, while the pressure rate he actually faces is only 36.6%, 17th. Put plainly, New York's weakness needs a pass rush to exploit it, and Miami does not have one. The far end is just as lopsided: Miami is 32nd in passing at 153.6 yards a game with two passing touchdowns all season, against a Jets defense fourth in passing yards allowed at 185.0, and Malik Willis is the starter rather than Kyle McCord, carrying a newly disclosed right thumb injury after practicing in full. Miami's live path is the ground: 11th in rushing at 126.6 a game with Ollie Gordon II at 5.0 a carry and Willis himself at 6.9 on 27 attempts, against a Jets front giving up 4.19 a carry with three runs of 20-plus allowed. Breece Hall's quad is a Friday call and Braelon Allen ran for 78 on 17 at New England without him, so the Jets side does not hinge on it. We make it Jets -5.5; the market says -4.5.

Bryce Young leads the NFL in passing at 309.8 yards a game with 11 touchdowns to two interceptions and a 98.5 rating, which is not a sentence anybody wrote in August. Tampa Bay has allowed 22 sacks in six games, a 62-sack pace that would beat the worst season in franchise history, and the sacks have followed both quarterbacks, so whoever starts stands behind the same problem; Luke Goedeke did not practice Wednesday with a calf and Justin Skule is the listed replacement at right tackle. Carolina hit Tanner McKee 10 times last week, its most quarterback hits since 2022, even without Jaelan Phillips, who was held out of Wednesday's practice and whom Dave Canales has said will not play Sunday, though ESPN's own roster still carries him as questionable. Tampa's answer is the run game at 4.8 a carry against a Carolina defense allowing 5.12, last in the league, but Bucky Irving sat Wednesday with illness and Carolina held Philadelphia to 35 rushing yards a week ago. Tetairoa McMillan has 471 yards and Carolina has increased his slot usage, which moves him around against a Tampa secondary whose number one corner Zyon McCollum also sat with illness. The caution is why this is ranked fourth rather than first: Tampa's quarterback, leading receiver, lead back, right tackle and top corner are all unresolved until Friday, and if Baker Mayfield starts our number comes down to -4.5 and the edge compresses to a point and a half. We make it Panthers -5.5; the market says -3 at the one book still offering it.

Cincinnati arrives with one player on its injury report, Kyle Dugger's quadriceps, off a bye, and Joe Burrow has a 4.5% sack rate behind an offensive line with nobody listed at all. Baltimore has 15 players listed. Lamar Jackson got what head coach Jesse Minter called a little bit of limited work on Wednesday, in street clothes with a wrap on the left ankle, his first participation of any kind since October 4, and Minter has said for three straight weeks that Jackson could play without much practice and then ruled him out on Friday every time. The gap is enormous and it is measurable: Jackson averages 10.1 yards an attempt and Tyler Huntley 6.0, and Baltimore scored 10 points at Cleveland in Huntley's second start. We are on Cincinnati because the side holds whichever way Friday breaks, which is the lesson we paid for last week: if Jackson plays our number is Ravens -2.5 and we give up half a point, and if he sits this is a pick'em and we are getting three. What cuts against us is Baltimore's run game, third in the league at 151.5 yards a game, against a Cincinnati front allowing 5.0 a carry, 30th, and that argument survives the quarterback question, though Derrick Henry managed 17 carries for 58 yards and a fourth-quarter fumble at Cleveland. Tavius Robinson, Baltimore's leading sacker, did not practice with a pectoral, and four of five Ravens line spots carry a designation, offset by Cam Jurgens practicing in full and sliding back in at center. We make it Ravens -1; the market says -3.

Houston should win this and the only question is the margin. Will Anderson Jr. has 7.5 sacks and a 92.1 PFF grade, the best of any edge defender in football, and the Giants had Andrew Thomas, Jermaine Eluemunor and swing tackle Marcus Mbow all sit out Wednesday, which is both starters and the backup, then signed a lineman off the Colts' practice squad. J.J. McCarthy makes his first start since Week 18 of last season, four weeks after arriving by trade, and Houston is third in the league in rushing yards allowed at 3.4 a carry, which shuts the other escape hatch. So why take double digits. Because Houston's own middle is the softest ground in this game: both starting safeties sat Wednesday, Reed Blankenship with a concussion and a hand and Jalen Pitre with a shoulder, the Texans are 27th in passing yards allowed, and Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely have absorbed 120 of 213 Giants targets with Likely leading the team in receiving touchdowns. Houston's own passing game is in flux too, with target leader Dalton Schultz not practicing on a quad, Marvin Harrison Jr. 12 snaps into his Texans career and saying he does not know much of the playbook, and Tank Dell, still carried on injured reserve by ESPN but a full participant Wednesday with DeMeco Ryans saying he expects him to play, in line for his first appearance in 22 months. This profiles as a 24-13 Houston win rather than a 31-10, and the number has already run five points from the lookahead. We make it Texans -7.5; the market says -10.

Two of the worst offenses in football, which is how a total of 43.5 happens in a dome. Bo Nix is at a career-low 60.3%, last in the NFL in air yards per attempt at 6.0, 28th in EPA per dropback when blitzed at -0.31, and under 200 passing yards in four of six games, with Sean Payton having taken the play sheet off Davis Webb after four weeks. Arizona is built to attack exactly that: its leading sacker is safety Budda Baker with 3.5 and its other real threat is Josh Sweat with 2.0, and against the Rams it blitzed 13 times, a season high for the unit, with Baker and Sweat each getting home. That was the week Arizona held the league's top-ranked offense to 16 points and no offensive touchdown, forcing two fourth-down turnovers. Trey McBride takes 27.7% of Arizona's targets and Denver's own staff has named containing him the central task of the week, with strong safety Talanoa Hufanga not practicing Wednesday on an ankle. Against us: Denver is 31st in rushing yards allowed and Arizona's chance to use that arrives in the week its lead back Jeremiyah Love did not practice, James Conner is still on injured reserve and has not practiced at all, and Baker, Jedrick Wills, Walter Nolen and Andrew Wingard were all reported absent Wednesday from a single outlet we could not double-source. We make it Broncos -3; the market says -4.5, and that point and a half is the entire bet.

Detroit leads the NFL with 20 sacks and Aidan Hutchinson is second in the league in pressures with 32 and first in PFF pass-rush grade at 91.1, against a Green Bay offensive line PFF ranks 31st of 32 and a quarterback carrying the worst quick-pressure rate in football at 24.5% and the worst average time to pressure at 2.35 seconds. On the very same snaps, Detroit allows 297.4 passing yards a game, most in the league, after giving up the most passing yards in NFL history through four games. Both extremes are true and the game is a bet on which one decides it. We lean to the front, because pass protection against pass rush is the matchup that predicts best, and Detroit's own line is PFF's number one with Penei Sewell moved to left tackle and Jared Goff carrying 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions behind it. Green Bay is also banged up in precisely the place it would need to be whole to attack that secondary, with Matthew Golden (shoulder) and Christian Watson (ankle) both limited and both new to the report after the receivers dropped several deep balls against Dallas. Brian Branch was a full participant Wednesday off a torn Achilles, which would let Detroit deploy safeties by matchup for the first time all year, but ESPN still carries him as out alongside Kerby Joseph and there is no game designation until Friday, so we have taken no credit for him in the number. Jordan Love is limited with a back injury that is new this week and will not resolve until Friday, and if he gives way to Tyrod Taylor and his two snaps this number is far too low, so the Lions are the side that holds either way. We make it Lions -3.5; the market says -3, and because that is half a point laying a key number this is a lean rather than a play.

Kansas City is 5-0, second in the NFL in points allowed at 16.6, and it is getting points on Sunday night. The reason is Seattle's defense, which leads the league in total defense at 237.3 yards a game and in pass defense at about 141.3, and which Andy Reid on Wednesday called the best in the business right now. Mike Macdonald and Aden Durde rarely blitz and instead disguise which four men rush, which is the worst possible thing to walk into with Kansas City's tackle situation: Jaylon Moore is in the concussion protocol and did not practice, Josh Simmons' back is unresolved with Kahlil Benson having taken over at left tackle, and Joshua Ezeudu, a guard by ESPN's listing who has mostly played the left side, is expected to start at right tackle in what would be the third Chiefs line combination of the season. We have priced that at a point and a quarter, the top of our cluster cap, and it is the only reason our number sits on Seattle's side of zero at all. The counterweight is that Seattle has committed more turnovers than any team in the NFL since the start of 2025, Sam Darnold has seven interceptions in four full games since returning and was sacked five times and hit 17 times by Denver, and all three Seattle losses are by three points or fewer with the offense 13th in scoring behind the league's best defense. Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL in rushing with 665 yards at 6.3 a carry in his first game back at Lumen Field since he was Super Bowl LX MVP, against a Seattle unit that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 straight games, which is the one place the matchup runs against us. We make it Seahawks -0.5; the market says -2.5.

Philadelphia is 31st in offensive EPA per play and 28th in scoring at 17.7 a game, and that was mostly with Jalen Hurts, who is on injured reserve with a deep vein thrombosis and bilateral pulmonary emboli and is reported by two national outlets to be out for the season. Tanner McKee makes the third start of his career behind a line missing three opening-day starters after Lane Johnson retired on October 6 and Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore the next day, and that unit ranks 32nd in the NFL in pressure rate and 32nd in unblocked pressure rate. Carolina pressured McKee on 41.7% of his attempts and he completed 47% at 4.9 yards an attempt for a negative 0.40 EPA, and because he is a timing thrower rather than an escape artist, a leaky line costs him more than it cost Hurts. Dallas just produced its first three-sack game of the season and 20 pressures of Jordan Love, while Philadelphia's own edge rush is thin with Jalyx Hunt, the team leader at 16 pressures, week to week, Nolan Smith in the concussion protocol and Jordan Davis, who left the Carolina game on an ankle and whom ESPN still lists as healthy, hoping to practice this week. Against us: Dallas allows a league-worst 149.8 rushing yards a game and a league-worst 52.6% on third down, and Philadelphia's run defense is far better than its raw number, allowing a 34.2% success rate on early-down runs with the highest light-box rate in the league at 65.5%. This is a lean and not a play for one reason: Saquon Barkley's hamstring is a Saturday call on a Monday game, he and Dameon Pierce are the only active backs on the roster, and if Barkley plays our number comes down and the edge goes with it. We make it Cowboys -5.5; the market says -4.5, which is already 7.5 points from an Eagles -3 lookahead.