Bates' walk-off 22-yarder lands Lions -3 exactly on the number for a push

Jake Bates' 22-yard field goal as time expired made it Lions 20, Packers 17, which is the number on the nose and a refund. We leaned on Detroit's league-leading pass rush against the worst line in football and got exactly one sack, from Aidan Hutchinson. DJ Wonnum's block of Trey Smack's 35-yarder with 3:21 left is the only reason this isn't a loss. Right result, wrong engine, zero dollars either way.

Detroit leads the NFL with 20 sacks and Aidan Hutchinson is second in the league in pressures with 32 and first in PFF pass-rush grade at 91.1, against a Green Bay offensive line PFF ranks 31st of 32 and a quarterback carrying the worst quick-pressure rate in football at 24.5% and the worst average time to pressure at 2.35 seconds. On the very same snaps, Detroit allows 297.4 passing yards a game, most in the league, after giving up the most passing yards in NFL history through four games. Both extremes are true and the game is a bet on which one decides it. We lean to the front, because pass protection against pass rush is the matchup that predicts best, and Detroit's own line is PFF's number one with Penei Sewell moved to left tackle and Jared Goff carrying 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions behind it. Green Bay is also banged up in precisely the place it would need to be whole to attack that secondary, with Matthew Golden (shoulder) and Christian Watson (ankle) both limited and both new to the report after the receivers dropped several deep balls against Dallas. Brian Branch was a full participant Wednesday off a torn Achilles, which would let Detroit deploy safeties by matchup for the first time all year, but ESPN still carries him as out alongside Kerby Joseph and there is no game designation until Friday, so we have taken no credit for him in the number. Jordan Love is limited with a back injury that is new this week and will not resolve until Friday, and if he gives way to Tyrod Taylor and his two snaps this number is far too low, so the Lions are the side that holds either way. We make it Lions -3.5; the market says -3, and because that is half a point laying a key number this is a lean rather than a play.