Minnesota's 16-10 grind cashes Colts +6.5 by half a point, exactly as called

We wrote that a 20-10 Minnesota win covers this and a 20-13 doesn't, then watched a 16-10 Minnesota win land it by half a point. Both halves showed up. Brian Flores blitzed Daniel Jones on 85.2% of his dropbacks, the highest rate on record, and sacked him four times for 44 yards. Minnesota still couldn't score: 275 total yards and one touchdown, a T.J. Hockenson catch. Harrison Smith's late interception sealed it. Will Reichard's 52-yarder with 1:39 left set the margin at exactly six.

Brian Flores blitzes on 71% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the league and 25 points clear of second place, and Daniel Jones has the most turnover-worthy plays of 35 qualified quarterbacks with 15, a 16.9% pressure-to-sack rate, and both right-side offensive line starters on the Wednesday report with Matt Goncalves not practicing and Jalen Travis limited. Minnesota is first in the NFL in points allowed at 12.8 with 10 takeaways in five games. All of that is why the number is 6.5 and why we have no edge on it. The reason to take the points anyway is that Minnesota cannot score: 21.8 points a game, 22nd, 938 passing yards in five games which is the worst figure in football, and 27th in offensive EPA per play. Kyler Murray is averaging five carries and 23 rushing yards a game, so the Arizona version of his legs is not part of this offense. A 20-10 win covers this and a 20-13 win does not, and Minnesota's five games say the second is at least as likely as the first. We make it Vikings -6.5; the market says -6.5, which is the only game on the board where we have nothing. Tyler Warren's groin is a Friday call and the tight ends who replaced him last week managed three catches for 21 yards, so Indianapolis is the side that improves if the news breaks either way.