Mahomes never reaches the red zone and Chiefs +2.5 dies in a 20-3 rout

We called Seattle's defense the best in the business and then bet against the scoreboard it produces. Kansas City never reached the red zone, reportedly a first in Patrick Mahomes' career, and finished with 213 yards, 11 first downs and three points. Our mechanism was wrong too: the patchwork Chiefs tackles we spent the week worrying about gave up exactly one sack. Seattle converted 11 of 16 third downs and let Jaxon Smith-Njigba go for 150. Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3. Took 2.5 and lost by 17.

Kansas City is 5-0, second in the NFL in points allowed at 16.6, and it is getting points on Sunday night. The reason is Seattle's defense, which leads the league in total defense at 237.3 yards a game and in pass defense at about 141.3, and which Andy Reid on Wednesday called the best in the business right now. Mike Macdonald and Aden Durde rarely blitz and instead disguise which four men rush, which is the worst possible thing to walk into with Kansas City's tackle situation: Jaylon Moore is in the concussion protocol and did not practice, Josh Simmons' back is unresolved with Kahlil Benson having taken over at left tackle, and Joshua Ezeudu, a guard by ESPN's listing who has mostly played the left side, is expected to start at right tackle in what would be the third Chiefs line combination of the season. We have priced that at a point and a quarter, the top of our cluster cap, and it is the only reason our number sits on Seattle's side of zero at all. The counterweight is that Seattle has committed more turnovers than any team in the NFL since the start of 2025, Sam Darnold has seven interceptions in four full games since returning and was sacked five times and hit 17 times by Denver, and all three Seattle losses are by three points or fewer with the offense 13th in scoring behind the league's best defense. Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL in rushing with 665 yards at 6.3 a carry in his first game back at Lumen Field since he was Super Bowl LX MVP, against a Seattle unit that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 straight games, which is the one place the matchup runs against us. We make it Seahawks -0.5; the market says -2.5.