Chop Robinson's third-and-goal sack sinks Jets -4.5 in a 28-25 Miami upset

Both legs of this broke. We said Miami's four-sack pass rush couldn't punish Geno Smith, and then Chop Robinson dropped him for 12 yards on third-and-goal from the 1, turning a go-ahead touchdown into a field goal. We said Miami couldn't throw, and Malik Willis went 14 of 21 for 208 and two scores, matching their season total for passing touchdowns in one afternoon. Caleb Douglas' 63-yard catch was the cushion. Dolphins 28, Jets 25. We laid 4.5 and lost outright by three.

Miami has four sacks in five games, dead last in the league, and all four came in one game against Kyler Murray in Week 4. That matters more than it sounds, because the Jets' one structural flaw is Geno Smith taking sacks nobody else would take: a 25.4% pressure-to-sack rate, second-highest of 31 qualified quarterbacks against a 16.5% league average, while the pressure rate he actually faces is only 36.6%, 17th. Put plainly, New York's weakness needs a pass rush to exploit it, and Miami does not have one. The far end is just as lopsided: Miami is 32nd in passing at 153.6 yards a game with two passing touchdowns all season, against a Jets defense fourth in passing yards allowed at 185.0, and Malik Willis is the starter rather than Kyle McCord, carrying a newly disclosed right thumb injury after practicing in full. Miami's live path is the ground: 11th in rushing at 126.6 a game with Ollie Gordon II at 5.0 a carry and Willis himself at 6.9 on 27 attempts, against a Jets front giving up 4.19 a carry with three runs of 20-plus allowed. Breece Hall's quad is a Friday call and Braelon Allen ran for 78 on 17 at New England without him, so the Jets side does not hinge on it. We make it Jets -5.5; the market says -4.5.