New England runs it 17 times and the Patriots +3 dies in a 30-24 loss

We built this on New England running it 31 times a game into a Bears linebacker room without Jack Sanborn. They ran it 17 times for 70 yards. That isn't a bad read, it's the wrong game entirely. Drake Maye was excellent, 24 of 31 for 321 yards, and his one mistake decided it: an end zone interception Chicago turned into Luther Burden's 24-yard touchdown with 14 seconds left in the half. Bears 30, Patriots 24. Borregales' late field goal cut it to six when we needed three.

New England runs it 31.2 times a game, second-most in the league, into a Bears linebacker room without Jack Sanborn (concussion) and almost certainly without T.J. Edwards (doubtful, hamstring). Chicago already allows 4.49 yards a carry, 24th, and ranks 25th in rushing success rate allowed, and that unit has been propped up by facing the fewest rushing attempts in football, which is the one thing the Patriots won't do. The reason this is only a lean is the other trench: New England starts Walter Rouse at left guard in his first NFL start and Matt Pryor, a tackle by ESPN's listing, sliding inside to right guard as the fourth different starter there in seven games, with rookie Caleb Lomu possible at right tackle if Morgan Moses' foot keeps him down, against Chicago's 9.0% sack rate, second in the NFL. Kyler Gordon makes it worse: in a 17-snap season debut he rushed on nine of them and turned three pressures into three sacks, and Chicago blitzed 53.8% of pass snaps with him on the field against a 36.0% season average. Drake Maye is the counter, with 10 touchdowns to one interception over his last three games and a 4.2% pressure-to-sack rate, which is why we'd rather take the points than lay them. We make it Bears -2.5; the market says -3. This is a Thursday game, so Wednesday's report is the final one and there are no Friday designations to wait on.