Singletary's 30-yard overtime run turns Giants +10.5 into an outright 27-21

Giants 27, Texans 21 in overtime, and the double-digit dog won the game outright. We'll take it, with an asterisk we'll own. Malik Nabers did exactly what we said, seven catches for 111. Everything else came from somewhere we never looked: four rushing touchdowns, Cam Skattebo at 17 for 124, and Devin Singletary breaking a 30-yard run to end it in overtime. J.J. McCarthy threw for 252 with no touchdowns and no picks. Will Anderson Jr., our stated worry, had zero sacks. Covered by 16.5.

Houston should win this and the only question is the margin. Will Anderson Jr. has 7.5 sacks and a 92.1 PFF grade, the best of any edge defender in football, and the Giants had Andrew Thomas, Jermaine Eluemunor and swing tackle Marcus Mbow all sit out Wednesday, which is both starters and the backup, then signed a lineman off the Colts' practice squad. J.J. McCarthy makes his first start since Week 18 of last season, four weeks after arriving by trade, and Houston is third in the league in rushing yards allowed at 3.4 a carry, which shuts the other escape hatch. So why take double digits. Because Houston's own middle is the softest ground in this game: both starting safeties sat Wednesday, Reed Blankenship with a concussion and a hand and Jalen Pitre with a shoulder, the Texans are 27th in passing yards allowed, and Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely have absorbed 120 of 213 Giants targets with Likely leading the team in receiving touchdowns. Houston's own passing game is in flux too, with target leader Dalton Schultz not practicing on a quad, Marvin Harrison Jr. 12 snaps into his Texans career and saying he does not know much of the playbook, and Tank Dell, still carried on injured reserve by ESPN but a full participant Wednesday with DeMeco Ryans saying he expects him to play, in line for his first appearance in 22 months. This profiles as a 24-13 Houston win rather than a 31-10, and the number has already run five points from the lookahead. We make it Texans -7.5; the market says -10.