Carlson's missed 52-yarder in Paris leaves Saints +3.5 a field goal short

Steelers 16, Saints 10 at the Stade de France, and it came down to Daniel Carlson's 52-yard miss in the fourth. Make that and we're looking at 16-13 and a cashed ticket. The run-game half of the case was right: Jaylen Warren went for 101 on the ground. The other half wasn't. We said Pittsburgh's patched secondary would let Tyler Shough hang around, and instead Payton Wilson picked him off in the red zone and New Orleans didn't score after halftime. Lost by six, needed under 3.5.

Jaylen Warren is the best thing on this field: 460 yards at 5.5 a carry, seventh in the NFL, with an 85.6 PFF rushing grade that ranks fourth of 44 backs and 4.09 yards after contact per attempt, against a New Orleans run defense allowing 138.0 yards a game, 30th, at 4.8 a carry, with 11 rushing touchdowns surrendered, the most in football. Atlanta ran for 205 yards and five scores on them three weeks ago, and Davon Godchaux's 36.0 PFF run-defense grade ranks 119th of 128 interior defenders. So why not lay the points. Because Pittsburgh's secondary is held together with tape: Jalen Ramsey is playing through a broken wrist and did not practice Wednesday, Brandin Echols is new to the report with a hamstring and also sat, and Joey Porter Jr. is in Dallas, which leaves Jamel Dean, Asante Samuel Jr. and rookie Daylen Everette against Chris Olave, second in the NFL with 580 receiving yards. Tyler Shough has been sacked more than any quarterback in the league, his left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. is out and Cesar Ruiz did not practice, so T.J. Watt and Chase Young both have runway, which is the shape of a game that stays close. This is a neutral site at the Stade de France, so neither side gets home field in our number, and the Saints have been practicing in Paris since Monday while Pittsburgh lands Friday, a real asymmetry we are deliberately not pricing. We make it Steelers -3; the market says -3.5, and half a point past a key number is the whole of this.