Penix is never touched and the 49ers -3 dies in a 29-20 Atlanta upset

This was the biggest number on our board and the read was inverted. We had Michael Penix Jr. getting buried. San Francisco didn't sack him once and pressured him on three of 34 dropbacks. He threw three touchdowns and no picks. Brock Purdy threw two interceptions, San Francisco turned it over four times to Atlanta's zero, and the Falcons ran off 23 straight points after trailing 14-3. Falcons 29, 49ers 20. We laid three and lost by nine, and the protection edge we loved never mattered.

San Francisco has allowed five sacks all season on 171 attempts, the best protection in football, and Atlanta is rushing the passer with a 3.5-sack Za'Darius Smith and a 2.5-sack Samson Ebukam after losing Jalon Walker to a torn ACL in training camp. The other end of that is worse for Atlanta: Chicago pressured Michael Penix Jr. on 56.4% of his dropbacks last week and sacked him five times, three of them by a blitzing slot corner, and Bijan Robinson said himself that his blitz pickup has to improve. Penix is the starter, for the avoidance of doubt, with Atlanta's own Week 7 depth chart listing him first, Tua Tagovailoa second and newly signed Andy Dalton third and expected to be inactive while he learns the offense. Brock Purdy is tied for the NFL lead with 14 touchdown passes against two interceptions, and Raheem Morris returns to Mercedes-Benz Stadium as the opposing coordinator with a defense that allows the fewest explosive plays in the league, sits fourth in points at 18.3 and held Washington to 53 rushing yards. We make it 49ers -6.5; the market says -3, and the gap is the biggest on the board. Here is the honest version of why: the market has walked this from 49ers -4.5 at the lookahead because Mike Evans (Achilles tendinitis) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) both sat Wednesday and Nick Bosa still has not played since Week 2, and our rulebook caps a two-receiver cluster at a point and a half where the market is clearly taking more. Price it that way and this is a 2.5-point edge instead of 3.5, which is the same side either way.