College Football Playoff projection after Week 11, 2026

Georgia is back at No. 1 in the committee's rankings and scored on its first five possessions in Saturday's 48-21 win over Missouri. Nate Frazier ran for three touchdowns and Gunner Stockton threw for 252 yards. Its best wins are 20-17 at Alabama, 42-7 at Ole Miss, 41-13 over Oklahoma and 27-8 over Florida. The only loss is 27-24 at home to Auburn on Oct. 17.

At 7-1 in the SEC, Georgia clinches a spot in Atlanta by winning at South Carolina on Saturday night (we give it 85 percent), then closes with Georgia Tech (99). It reaches the title game in 98 percent of our simulations and wins it in 56, most often against Alabama. It gets a bye in 90 percent of simulations.

Utah is 10-0 after its closest call. Its flight to Tucson left a day late because of the ground stop, it fell behind by 11 early, and it won 40-39 at Arizona when Devon Dampier hit Creed Whittemore for a 70-yard touchdown with 2:25 left and the defense got a fourth-down stop. The other best wins are 28-20 over BYU and 21-13 over Houston.

Utah is first in ESPN's strength-of-record measure, though its schedule ranks 58th. Two games are left, at TCU (we give Utah 72 percent) and against West Virginia (92). It reaches Arlington in 99 percent of our simulations and wins the Big 12 in 54. The committee had it second; it makes the field in 98 percent of simulations and gets a bye in 57.

The committee moved Notre Dame from 11th to fifth after its 31-24 win over Miami, with Hunter Yurachek pointing to the 24-3 lead the Irish built in that game. There was no letdown Saturday: Notre Dame led 31-0 at halftime and beat Boston College 41-7. The only loss is 28-24 at BYU on Oct. 17.

SMU comes to South Bend next (we give Notre Dame 93 percent), then it's at Syracuse (94). The Irish are in 98 percent of our simulations. Our stand-in gives them a bye in only 2 percent because they have no 13th game, but we expect the committee to keep an 11-1 Notre Dame ahead of Miami, which it beat, and ahead of two-loss Alabama and Texas. We have it third.

Miami beat Duke 36-25 behind Darian Mensah, who threw for 382 yards against his former school, and Javian Mallory, who scored three times. The committee dropped the Hurricanes from first to seventh after the 31-24 loss at Notre Dame, behind two-loss Alabama and Texas. Their best wins are 33-20 at Wake Forest and 41-13 at Clemson.

At 7-0 in the ACC, Miami clinches a spot in Charlotte with one more win, and Virginia Tech (96 percent) and Boston College (99) are left. It wins the league in 65 percent of our simulations, almost always against Wake Forest. A 12-1 ACC champion whose only loss came at Notre Dame should climb back into the top four; Miami gets a bye in 73 percent of simulations, and we have it fourth.

Grant Wilson made his first start and threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-13 win over USC, Indiana's first win over a Top 25 team. Curt Cignetti stayed with Wilson even though Josh Hoover was healthy and available, and didn't say who starts next. The committee had dropped Indiana from fourth to ninth during its bye week. The only loss is 19-15 at home to Ohio State.

It's at Washington on Saturday (we give Indiana 79 percent), then home against Purdue (94). Indiana reaches Indianapolis in 87 percent of our simulations and wins the Big Ten in 60. A 12-1 champion that beats UCLA in Indianapolis should pass the two-loss teams, though probably not Notre Dame and Miami. We have Indiana fifth, hosting a first-round game.

Keelon Russell played through his ankle injury and threw three touchdown passes in a 21-6 win at Vanderbilt, a game it led only 7-3 at halftime. The committee had it third, and Hunter Yurachek cited its schedule and four quality wins. The best are 45-17 at Kentucky, 49-18 over South Carolina and 31-13 at LSU. The losses are 20-17 to Georgia and 26-10 at Tennessee.

Chattanooga and Auburn (88 percent) are left, and Alabama reaches Atlanta in 60 percent of our simulations. A rematch with Georgia, which we make the favorite, would be a third loss. The simulations give Alabama a bye 40 percent of the time, but we expect the committee to place a 10-3 Alabama behind the four champions we project and Notre Dame, so it's sixth.

Texas won 22-21 at LSU when Arch Manning, who'd thrown three interceptions, hit Raleek Brown for a 4-yard touchdown with 3 seconds left. It's the fourth straight win for a team whose schedule ranks second by ESPN's measure. Texas owns 24-23 over Ohio State, 20-17 at Tennessee and 34-27 over Ole Miss. Both losses were by three, to Oklahoma in Dallas and to Florida at home.

Arkansas comes to Austin on Saturday (we give Texas 94 percent), then it's a trip to Texas A&M (75). Texas makes the field in 98 percent of our simulations, and 10-2 is its likeliest finish. It reaches the SEC title game in 36 percent. As the No. 7 seed it would host Tennessee, the team it beat in Knoxville on Sept. 26.

UCLA is 10-0 after a rain-soaked 22-14 win over Illinois on Friday night. Ty Dieffenbach hurt his left elbow late in the first half, returned late in the third quarter and led a touchdown drive on his first series. He's 5-0 as the starter since Nico Iamaleava's season-ending knee injury. The best wins are 17-15 at Oregon and 17-7 over Wisconsin.

The committee had UCLA fourth. The finish is why we don't: at Michigan on Saturday (we give UCLA 56 percent), then USC (53), then a likely Big Ten title game. It reaches Indianapolis in 81 percent of our simulations but wins the league in only 21, and it makes the field in 73. As the No. 8 seed it would host a first-round game at the Rose Bowl.

Wake Forest led 42-0 at halftime and won 49-7 at SMU for its seventh straight win, with Gio Lopez back from a knee injury and accounting for three touchdowns. It's the only team with five road wins over power-conference teams this season, including 30-27 at Louisville and 38-14 at NC State, and its only loss is 33-20 at home to Miami. The committee had it 13th.

Georgia Tech on the road (91 percent) and Duke (74) are left, and Wake reaches Charlotte in 94 percent of our simulations, nearly always for a rematch with Miami. It wins the ACC in 33 and makes the field in 83. An 11-2 Wake whose only losses came against Miami is a team we expect the committee to take, and we have it ninth.

Tennessee won 22-7 at Texas A&M on five Cooper Ranvier field goals and a fourth-quarter touchdown pass from Faizon Brandon to DaSaahn Brame. The committee moved it up five spots to eighth after its 34-6 win over Kentucky, and its 26-10 win over Alabama is one of the best on the bubble. The losses are 20-17 at home to Texas and 27-24 at South Carolina.

Saturday's game with LSU in Knoxville is a coin flip in our numbers (50 percent), and it finishes at Vanderbilt (86). Tennessee makes the field in 51 percent of our simulations, just ahead of Ohio State at 49, which makes it the last team in. A 10-2 Tennessee should be safe; at 9-3 it would be waiting on the committee.

Texas Tech beat Oklahoma State 52-27 in Stillwater, with Thomas Castellanos throwing four touchdown passes and Malcolm Simmons returning the opening kickoff 97 yards. The reigning Big 12 champion is 9-1, and its loss is 37-24 at Cincinnati on Oct. 24. Its best wins are 28-26 over Houston and 34-26 over Arizona, and its schedule ranks 68th by ESPN's measure. The committee had it 12th.

It's at Baylor on Saturday (we give Texas Tech 59 percent), then home against TCU (78). It doesn't play Utah in the regular season, reaches Arlington in 78 percent of our simulations and wins the Big 12 in 36. It makes the field in 60, and it's in our projection as an 11-2 title-game loser. As the No. 11 seed it would play at Alabama.

Boise State outlasted Oregon State 46-41. Maddux Madsen, back from injury, threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and Rasean Jones caught 11 passes for 230 yards and three scores. The win clinched the home spot in the Pac-12 title game on Dec. 4. The only loss is 34-27 at Oregon in the opener, and the best win is 38-20 over Memphis.

With New Mexico losing 21-17 at home to UNLV, nobody is close. Boise gets the Group of Six bid in 99 percent of our simulations; Liberty is next at 1. San Diego State comes to Boise on Saturday (93 percent) before the Pac-12 title game, likeliest against Texas State. The committee had Boise 24th, so it would be seeded 12th and play at the No. 5 seed.