Minnesota is first at 3-0 after winning 23-16 at Tampa Bay, and the house rule that keeps the reigning champion on top broke this week: Seattle lost 33-31 at Washington and falls from first to eighth. Pittsburgh is the biggest riser, up 11 spots to 12th after beating a 2-1 Cincinnati team 30-27 at home. Atlanta is up nine to 23rd after a 35-14 road win at Green Bay, and Jacksonville and Cleveland are up eight each. Green Bay is the biggest faller, down 11 to 27th. San Francisco has the best point differential in the league at plus 48 and sits third, because its three opponents are a combined 2-7 and it hasn't played a true road game.
Method
Results only. The inputs are the final score, the margin, where the game was played, the box score underneath it, and the strength of the teams actually beaten, measured by what those teams have done in their other games. Nothing from the offseason, no projection of what a roster is supposed to be, no injury forecasts, no treating turnovers or fumble luck as something a team won't repeat, no coaching-change arguments, and no discounting a result because it looks unsustainable.
Time of possession is context, not evidence. A short possession total with a high yards-per-play rate means an offense scored quickly. Low possession counts against a team only when it comes from three-and-outs, turnovers or a defense that can't get off the field. San Francisco held the ball for 21:16 against Arizona and gained 437 yards, so that isn't held against the 49ers. Miami held it for 34:21 against Kansas City and scored 10, and that is.
With three weeks played, opponent strength rests on two other games per opponent. That is better than last week and still noisy, and it moved several placements: Cleveland's rise to 2-1 added weight to Jacksonville's Week 1 win, and Chicago's win over Philadelphia added weight to Minnesota's road win in Week 2.
The house rule gives the reigning Super Bowl champion first place until its results say otherwise. Seattle lost 33-31 at Washington, a 1-2 team, so the rule broke this week and the Seahawks are eighth. A loss is the case the rule explicitly allows for, and this was a loss with three giveaways in it.
Record is the first cut again. All five 3-0 teams rank above all eleven 2-1 teams, and those above the 1-2 teams, and those above the winless. The strongest case for a crossover is Chicago, 2-1 with a plus 36 differential and a 20-point home win over 2-1 Philadelphia, over Las Vegas, 3-0 against opponents who are a combined 1-8. It isn't adopted, because three wins are three wins.
Among the unbeaten teams the order turns on venue. Minnesota is first because its best win, 9-3 at Chicago, came on the road against a team that is now 2-1, while Kansas City's best, 31-10 over Denver, came at home. San Francisco's plus 48 is the best mark in the league, but its opponents are a combined 2-7 and the Melbourne win over the Rams was at a neutral site, so the 49ers have not yet played a true road game.
Ties in resume are broken by quality of wins, then point differential. That is what puts Carolina a spot above Dallas at identical plus six differentials: Carolina's best win, 34-3 at Atlanta, came on the road and by more than Dallas's 37-20 home win over Washington. Baltimore's win over Dallas in Rio de Janeiro and San Francisco's over the Rams in Melbourne are both scored as neutral-site games for both teams.
MVP watch
Five players ranked on production adjusted for efficiency and mistakes, the defenses they faced, how much of their team's offense runs through them and how much help they have around them. Team record counts, but only a little, so a good player on a losing team can top this list. Every position is eligible. Quarterbacks carry the most weight because they touch every snap, so anyone else has to be exceptional at his position to make it. Three games is still a thin sample.
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1
Brock Purdy
QB · San Francisco 49ers (3-0) · Last week 3▲2
60 of 83, 789 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT, 9.5 yards per attempt; 10 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD; no sacks taken
Purdy takes over on efficiency. Nine touchdown passes against one interception at 9.5 yards per attempt, 72 percent completions, and he's the only qualified quarterback in the league who hasn't been sacked all year. Against Arizona he went 15 of 27 for 297 yards and four scores. The case against first is degree of difficulty: his opponents are a combined 2-7, his protection has been the league's best, and San Francisco hasn't played a true road game yet.
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2
Josh Allen
QB · Buffalo Bills (3-0) · Last week 1▼1
56 of 86, 786 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 9.1 yards per attempt; 28 carries, 114 yards, 6 TD
Allen has 11 total touchdowns, five passing and six rushing, and nobody on this list has more. The six rushing scores match Derrick Henry, who leads all running backs. He drops to second because Week 3 was his worst game of the year: 16 of 26 for 204 yards, no touchdown passes and two interceptions, in a win Buffalo needed five turnovers' worth of luck to keep. His 9.1 yards per attempt still ranks third among the 20 leading passers.
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3
Patrick Mahomes
QB · Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
67 of 98, 812 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 8.3 yards per attempt; 10 carries, 41 yards, 1 TD
Mahomes enters at third on consistency and volume: 812 passing yards, seven touchdowns, 68 percent completions and a team that hasn't lost. Miami was 20 of 24 for 246 yards and two scores. What holds him below Purdy and Allen is the mix. Two interceptions, 8.3 yards per attempt, and a schedule of Denver, Indianapolis and Miami, plus a Kansas City running game that has produced 460 yards and carried a real share of the load.
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4
Bryce Young
QB · Carolina Panthers (1-2) · Last week 2▼2
72 of 121, 939 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 7.8 yards per attempt
Young leads the league in passing yards with 939, and that's about 80 percent of Carolina's total offense, the largest share of any player here. That's why a 1-2 quarterback stays on the list. He drops two spots because Week 3 was 26 of 48 for 291 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a three point loss at Cleveland, and because his completion rate of 60 percent is the lowest of the five.
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5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR · Seattle Seahawks (2-1) · Last week 5=
27 catches on 36 targets, 405 yards, 6 TD
The one non-quarterback who clears the bar. Smith-Njigba leads the league in receiving yards with 405 and in touchdown catches with six, one more than Amon-Ra St. Brown. At Washington he had 10 catches for 128 yards and two scores in a two point loss. He's caught 75 percent of his targets and holds about half of Seattle's passing yards. He stays fifth rather than rising because the quarterback adjustment is real.
Also considered: Lamar Jackson (9.8 yards per attempt, highest among the 20 leading passers), Jared Goff (802 yards, eight touchdowns, no interceptions), Kirk Cousins (nine touchdown passes for a 3-0 Las Vegas) and Kenneth Walker III (360 rushing yards, most in the league).
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