Buffalo keeps first place at 7-1 after winning 23-6 at Minnesota on Monday night, holding the Vikings to 178 yards and no third-down conversions, and it now has four road wins, more than any other team. San Francisco rises to second at 7-1 on a 38-17 win over Las Vegas, with the venue gap still the reason it isn't first: one true road win in eight games. Minnesota is the week's biggest faller, down five to seventh, after scoring six points at home and managing 17:28 of possession. Dallas and New Orleans are the biggest risers, both up five, Dallas to seventeenth on a 27-23 win at Indianapolis and New Orleans to twentieth on a 23-22 overtime win over Cleveland. Denver moves up three to third at 7-2 on the stated tiebreak, with beaten opponents at 28-31 against Chicago's 23-39, even though its plus 12 differential is the thinnest of any seven-win team. Jacksonville's plus 108 is the best margin in the league by 29. No unbeaten teams remain and the 0-8 Chargers are the only winless one. Visitors went 9-5 in the fourteen games played at a home stadium. Pittsburgh and Tennessee were on bye.
Method
Results only. The inputs are the final score, the margin, where the game was played, the box score underneath it, and the strength of the teams actually beaten, measured by what those teams have done in their other games. Nothing from the offseason, no projection of what a roster is supposed to be, no injury forecasts, no treating turnovers or fumble luck as something a team will not repeat, no coaching-change arguments, and no discounting a result because it looks unsustainable.
Record is the first cut, measured by win percentage so that byes and the Week 5 tie are handled consistently. Two teams sit at 7-1, two at 7-2, six at 6-2, then the 5-2-1 Giants, 6-3 Green Bay, the four at 5-4, the three at 4-5, the three at 3-5, the three at 3-6, the 2-5-1 Commanders, the three at 2-7, the two at 1-7 and the winless Chargers. Ties in resume are broken by quality of wins, then point differential.
Time of possession is context, not evidence. A short possession total next to a high yards-per-play figure means an offense scored quickly and is not held against it. It counts against a team when it comes from three-and-outs, turnovers or a defense that cannot get off the field. Minnesota's 17:28 on Monday is the bad kind: nine first downs, no third-down conversions and 178 total yards. Tampa Bay's 32:52 in Chicago is the reverse, time of possession that produced nothing because it went 2 of 12 on third down.
The top two go to Buffalo on both stated tiebreaks and on venue. Buffalo's beaten opponents are 28-31 to San Francisco's 27-33-1, and while San Francisco leads on differential, plus 79 to plus 69, quality of wins is the first tiebreak. Venue points the same way: four road wins to one, with San Francisco's other wins coming at home or at the neutral site in Melbourne. Denver over Chicago follows the stated order too, and that one goes against margin: a 45-point differential gap for Chicago loses to a five-win and eight-loss gap in a 60-game aggregate of beaten opponents, 28-31 against 23-39. Denver has beaten two 6-2 teams and Chicago has beaten none better than 5-4.
Two placements bend the stated tiebreak and both are flagged rather than buried. Seattle goes ahead of Cleveland at 5-4 even though quality of wins nominally favors Cleveland, 17-25 to 17-26, because that is a one-game gap in a 42-game aggregate set against a 75-point gap in differential, plus 40 to minus 35. Dallas goes ahead of Baltimore at 4-5 on the same logic: 9-24-1 against 10-25 is inside the noise, and plus 10 against minus 47 is not. Cleveland is the only team with a winning record and a negative differential.
Everything else follows the stated order. Jacksonville tops the 6-2 group on beaten opponents at 24-29, and Pittsburgh edges Minnesota there on margin after the two tied at 22-30. Detroit sits behind both at 21-30, and Kansas City leads Cincinnati 16-36 to 15-36 despite a worse differential. New Orleans tops the 3-5 group on beaten opponents at 14-11-1, which puts a minus 31 team ahead of a plus 17 Houston whose beaten opponents are 7-17. Atlanta tops the 3-6 group on the best beaten-opponent record in the league, 16-9. Tennessee edges Miami on differential after both came in at 2-7 on quality of wins.
One note specific to this week. Cincinnati and Atlanta played at the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, which is a neutral site for both of them even though Atlanta was the designated home team, so neither gets venue credit or a venue penalty for it. Every other game was played at a home stadium.
Nine weeks in, opponent strength rests on eight or nine other games per opponent, which is firm enough to use and still thin enough to move a placement a few spots. It's what holds the Giants at eleventh at 5-2-1, because their schedule is 23-44-1, the weakest in the league by a distance, and it's what keeps New England thirteenth rather than lower, because its slate at 44-33 is the toughest of any team with a winning record. Miami's 42-25 is the hardest anyone has played.
The house rule gives the reigning Super Bowl champion first place until its results say otherwise. Seattle's Week 3 loss at Washington broke that rule and it has not been restored. This week the Seahawks beat Arizona 17-3 at home, holding the Cardinals to 198 yards and 4 of 13 on third down, which is a fine result against a 3-6 team but not one that wins a top spot back. The rule governs holding first place, not reclaiming it, so Seattle at 5-4 has to earn the top on the body of work, and it is fourteenth, up one.
MVP watch
Five players ranked on production adjusted for efficiency, the quality of the defenses they've faced, how much of their team's offense runs through them and how little help they've had. Interceptions, sacks taken and fumbles count against, and team record counts only a little. Every position is eligible, with quarterbacks weighted heavier because they touch every snap. Nine weeks in, with most of these players having played eight or nine games, the order still moves more than it will in December.
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1
Joe Burrow
QB · Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) · Last week 2▲1
219 of 296, 2,386 yards, 23 TD, 6 INT, 8.1 yards per attempt, 74.0 percent, 114.8 rating; 15 sacks taken
Burrow leads the league in touchdown passes, completion percentage and passer rating, and he's second in yards. That's the heaviest criterion at full strength. In Madrid he went 24 of 29 for 271 yards with three scores, no picks and a 140.1 rating, and ran one in. The case against first place is the opposition: Cincinnati's beaten opponents are 15-36, the weakest set of any winning team, and six interceptions is more than Trevor Lawrence's four.
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2
Trevor Lawrence
QB · Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) · Last week 1▼1
146 of 224, 1,932 yards, 18 TD, 4 INT, 8.6 yards per attempt, 65.2 percent, 111.7 rating; 13 sacks taken
Lawrence beats Burrow on every rate that matters per throw: 8.0 percent of his attempts are touchdowns, 1.8 percent are interceptions, and 8.6 yards an attempt ties for the league lead. His opponents have been better too, with Jacksonville's beaten opponents at 24-29. What drops him to second is output. He's 454 yards and five touchdowns behind on the season, and 1,932 yards ranks fifteenth.
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3
Josh Allen
QB · Buffalo Bills (7-1) · Last week 3=
156 of 236, 2,027 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT, 8.6 yards per attempt, 99.3 rating; 9 rushing TD, 21 total TD
Allen ties for the league lead at 8.6 yards an attempt, his 21 total touchdowns are as many as anyone's, and Buffalo's 256 points lead the league. Opponent quality helps him: the Bills' beaten opponents are 28-31, better than anyone ahead of him on this list. The argument against a higher spot is the passing split, 12 touchdowns against six interceptions, and Monday's 4 of 9 for 31 yards with a pick against the blitz.
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4
C.J. Stroud
QB · Houston Texans (3-5)
181 of 282, 2,251 yards, 16 TD, 2 INT, 8.0 yards per attempt, 64.2 percent, 104.8 rating; 16 sacks taken
Two interceptions on 282 attempts is the lowest rate of any quarterback with 200 throws, and Stroud pairs it with 8.0 yards an attempt and 384 yards and five touchdowns at the Chargers. He's here on share of output and degree of difficulty: Houston has no runner in the league's top 25, he's been sacked 16 times, and he carries a 3-5 team to a plus 17 differential. Beaten opponents at 7-17 are what cap him.
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5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR · Seattle Seahawks (5-4) · Last week 5=
71 catches, 1,036 yards, 9 TD, 14.6 yards per catch, 99 targets
The position adjustment weights quarterbacks heavier and Smith-Njigba clears the bar anyway. He leads the league in receiving yards by 132 over CeeDee Lamb and leads all receivers with nine touchdowns, on a team whose quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions than most. That's criterion three at full strength. Against Arizona he caught seven for 51 with no score, a quiet game in a 17-3 win, and that's the case against a higher spot.
Also considered: Jared Goff (15 touchdowns against two interceptions and a 106.4 rating, but 170 yards in the win at Miami), Brock Purdy (17 touchdowns and a 109.8 rating with only eight sacks taken, the most protection of any starter), Jordan Love (league-leading 2,618 yards at 7.7 a throw) and Bijan Robinson (league-leading 880 rushing yards on a 3-6 team).
Coach of the Year watch
Five head coaches ranked on what has happened on the field in 2026: record against the schedule, with venue and the quality of the teams beaten weighed exactly as they are in the rankings above, then improvement on each team's actual 2025 record and point differential, which is the only baseline here from outside this season. Turnover margin, penalties, second-half scoring and units that have clearly improved on their 2025 numbers all count. Preseason expectations, win totals, odds and reputation do not. Nine games in, this order is still more volatile than it will be in December.
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1
Joe Brady
Buffalo Bills (7-1) · 12-5 last season · Last week 3▲2
7-1, +69 points, 256 scored (most in the league), four road wins (most in the league); 2025: 12-5, +116
The heaviest criterion is results against the schedule, and Brady's team is first in this week's rankings with four road wins, more than anybody, and beaten opponents at 28-31. Monday's 23-6 at Minnesota held the league's stingiest defense's team to 178 yards and nothing on third down. What argues against first is the second criterion: Buffalo was 12-5 at plus 116, so the per-game margin has moved only from plus 6.8 to plus 8.6.
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2
Kyle Shanahan
San Francisco 49ers (7-1) · 12-5 last season
7-1, +79 (second best in the league), 156 points allowed; 2025: 12-5, +66; margin up 6.0 points per game
Shanahan is second in the rankings at 7-1, and he beats Brady clearly on improvement: a plus 3.9 per-game margin in 2025 has become plus 9.9, a six-point swing, the largest among the teams at the top. Sunday's 38-17 over Las Vegas came with 190 rushing yards on 43 carries. The case against first is venue, weighed the same way as the rankings: one true road win in eight games, against Buffalo's four.
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3
Ben Johnson
Chicago Bears (7-2) · 11-6 last season · Last week 2▼1
7-2, +57 (third best in the league); 2025: 11-6, +26; margin up 4.8 points per game, three road wins
Chicago is 7-2 with the third-best differential in the league, and the per-game margin has gone from plus 1.5 to plus 6.3. Three wins came on the road. The box-score evidence is third down, where the Bears went 7 of 13 to Tampa Bay's 2 of 12 and won 27-24 despite five turnovers. What keeps him third is the first criterion: Chicago's beaten opponents are 23-39, the weakest of any team in the top six.
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4
Liam Coen
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) · 13-4 last season
6-2, +108 (best in the league by 29), 121 points allowed; 2025: 13-4, +138; margin up 5.4 points per game
On the first criterion Coen has the strongest case here: the best differential in the league by 29 points, the second-fewest points allowed, and the best set of beaten opponents of any 6-2 team at 24-29. Thursday's 33-10 at Baltimore came with three takeaways. The second criterion is where he loses ground and it should be said plainly: Jacksonville's winning percentage is flat on a 13-4 season, so only the margin has improved.
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5
Mike McCarthy
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) · 10-7 last season · Last week 4▼1
6-2, +36, 144 points allowed (fourth fewest); 2025: 10-7, +10; first year with the team
McCarthy took a 10-7 team that was plus 10 and has it 6-2 at plus 36, a per-game margin up from plus 0.6 to plus 4.5, with the fourth-fewest points allowed in the league. His team was on bye this week, so nothing changed either way. The case against a higher spot is travel and quality of wins: one true road win in eight games, a neutral-site win in Paris, and beaten opponents at 22-30.
Also considered: Kevin O'Connell (Minnesota still allows the fewest points in the league at 116, but scored 6 on 178 yards at home on Monday), Zac Taylor (Cincinnati's margin is up 12.7 points a game on 2025, the largest swing in the league, with beaten opponents at 15-36), Sean Payton (7-2, but Denver is plus 12 after plus 90 in a 14-3 season, a margin down 4.0 points a game) and John Harbaugh (the Giants' winning percentage is up .453, the biggest jump in the league, against the weakest schedule anyone has played at 23-44-1).