Chad Ryland's 49-yarder at 0:34 backdoors Cardinals +8.5 home

Take the money and be honest about how it arrived. Arizona was down 36-27 inside the last minute, which is no cover, and Chad Ryland's 49-yard field goal with 34 seconds left dragged it across at 36-30. Two missed Eddy Pineiro extra points did work for me too. Jacoby Brissett went 38-of-52 for 280 with no turnovers and snuck in a score to make it 29-27, so the Cardinals were genuinely live. But Brock Purdy threw four touchdowns and George Kittle caught two of them. Cashed by 2.5 on the last kick.

I took Arizona last week and they lost by 24, so consider this me being stubborn. The number is what brings me back: 82% of the money is on San Francisco and the line hasn't budged off -8.5 since it opened, which is a book perfectly happy to keep writing that ticket. San Francisco's receiver room is getting thin, with Demarcus Robinson out three to six weeks with a high ankle sprain, Mike Evans playing through a hip that has to be managed, and De'Zhaun Stribling and Christian Kirk both banged up. George Kittle looked fully recovered from the Achilles with 80 yards and a score, which is the counterargument. Arizona managed 151 total yards after halftime against Seattle and Jacoby Brissett is under real scrutiny, so this is a number play, not a belief in the Cardinals.