Bijan Robinson's 194 yards bury Green Bay as Falcons +5.5 cashes by 26.5

Atlanta 35, Green Bay 14, which clears +5.5 by 26.5 points. Green Bay scored first on a Christian Watson touchdown and then got outscored 27-0 across the middle of the game. Bijan Robinson did the damage: 29 carries, 194 yards, two touchdowns. Michael Penix Jr. threw a pick on his opening drive and then settled in at 18 of 25 for 256 yards and a score. We bought Penix and the reverse line movement. We got paid by the running back.

Textbook reverse line movement. Green Bay opened -7, tickets are 55% to 70% on the Packers depending on the feed, and the number has come down to -5.5 anyway with 69% of the money on Atlanta. The reason is Michael Penix Jr., who is confirmed to start Thursday after missing two weeks with the knee. Atlanta got beat 34-3 at home last week with Cooper Rush and an undrafted Jack Strand, who threw a pick-six on his first drive, so the market is pricing the difference between a real quarterback and that. Green Bay's line is falling apart too: right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the year with a torn patellar tendon, Aaron Banks is questionable, Jayden Reed is doubtful, and they're already without Micah Parsons.