Tyler Loop's 56-yarder wins it by 3 and loses Ravens -3.5 on the hook

Top play of the week, beaten by half a point, which is what paying the hook through a key number costs you. The Henry read landed: Derrick Henry carried 26 times for two touchdowns after 16 carries the week before, and Baltimore ran for 192 yards. What I got wrong was the defense. Dallas gained 415 yards and scored 31 on a secondary I called depleted. Brandon Aubrey tied it from 23 with seven seconds left, then Tyler Loop hit from 56 at the gun for 34-31. Winning outright, losing the bet.

This is the cleanest money signal of the week. Tickets are split roughly down the middle, 54% on Dallas, while 78% of the actual money sits on Baltimore, and the line moved from -3 through the key number to -3.5 with it. When the handle is that far ahead of the ticket count and the number follows the handle, I want to be with the money rather than against the crowd. Dallas is winning games with Dak Prescott throwing four touchdowns while the defense gave up 389 yards and one sack, and the secondary is coming apart: Cobie Durant is out multiple weeks, P.J. Locke has a torn plantar fascia and may land on injured reserve, and Malik Hooker and DeMarvion Overshown are both unlikely. This one is at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro, so nobody gets true home field, and the pitch has absorbed roughly six weeks of heavy rain with the league shipping in a protective tarp, and Baltimore is coming off a loss with Derrick Henry underused.