Jaylen Warren's 127 yards cash Steelers +3.5 outright in Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh won it outright 30-27 and I got there off a read that was mostly wrong. I said Aaron Rodgers had nobody to throw to. He threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns. I flagged Rico Dowdle's toe as a problem for Pittsburgh; he was ruled out and Jaylen Warren ran 17 times for 127 yards at 7.5 a carry. Chris Boswell's 33-yarder at 2:15 was the winner, set up by Darnell Washington's 47-yard catch. Joe Burrow got strip-sacked inside the final minute. Won by 6.5 against the number.

Cincinnati opened -2.5 and got pushed through the key number to -3.5 on 85% of the money, which means I'm fading the handle and not just the public. The reason I'll do it is that this is a division game with a 42.5 total, and half a point past a field goal is a lot to lay on the road in a game the market expects to be low-scoring. Cincinnati is coming off a 20-6 win in Houston, and its front was the story of that game, with Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe and Jonathan Allen holding Houston to 60 rushing yards and sacking C.J. Stroud four times. Pittsburgh is the ugly side of this: Aaron Rodgers has no one to throw to, DK Metcalf has 8 catches on 19 targets through two weeks, and the defense is allowing 4.9 yards a carry with Rico Dowdle's toe uncertain. I want the points and the extra half point past three.