Spencer Shrader's 43-yarder on a bad groin buries Texans -3 in Indianapolis

I read the move to Colts +3 as the market pointing at Houston, and then laid the points with a team missing Nico Collins. Houston gained 223 yards, scored 17 and is 0-3. Spencer Shrader, who hurt his groin after the opening kickoff, went 4-for-4 including a 58-yarder and won it from 43 with 16 seconds left. Indianapolis snapped a nine-game losing streak. Will Anderson Jr.'s 2.5 sacks were the only part of my read that showed up. Lost by five against the number, and that was the premise, not the bounce.

This is the same signal I was on with Houston last week, and it lost, so either the read is right and the result was noise or I'm chasing a number that already beat me. Indianapolis opened as a 1.5-point home dog and has been pushed to +3, through the key number, while 58% of the tickets and 56% of the money sit on the Colts. A line moving that far against the public is the market telling you where the real opinion is. Indianapolis has now lost nine straight games going back to last season, Alec Pierce is on injured reserve and Charvarius Ward sat out Wednesday, and Shane Steichen is being asked about his job. Houston is probably doing this without Nico Collins, who has a Grade 1 hamstring, missed a third straight practice Wednesday and isn't expected to play, and their defense has given up 56 points in two weeks, which is why I'm not laying more than 3.