Kelce's 11-yard TD with 2:55 left kills Dolphins +11.5 by 2.5 points

This was a winning ticket with three minutes to play, so allow me some annoyance. Miami trailed 14-10 from the third quarter and 17-10 into the fourth, comfortably inside the number, and lost De'Von Achane to a knee injury on the opening drive. Then Patrick Mahomes found Travis Kelce for 11 yards at 2:55 and it was 24-10. Mahomes finished 20-of-24 for 246. Malik Willis threw for 210 with no touchdowns, an interception and a lost fumble. Lost by 2.5 against 11.5, on one throw.

I took Miami plus the points last week and lost by 22, so this is me going back to a well that just came up dry. The case is that Kansas City needed overtime to beat an Indianapolis team that has lost nine in a row, and a team that wins by 21 and then by 3 in overtime is not obviously a double-digit road favorite. The case against is everything else: Miami has been outscored 62-26 across two weeks, Malik Willis is struggling from deep deficits, and Caleb Douglas is questionable with an ankle. The number went from -10.5 to -11.5 with the 93% money, so the book is comfortable and I'm getting no help. Lean, small, and I'd forgive you for skipping it.