Talanoa Hufanga's pick-six and Nix's late run cash Broncos +2.5

Denver was down 16-0 at halftime and won 30-26, so I'll take the result and fix the reasoning. I sold a rested lockdown defense, and Matthew Stafford threw for 390 yards. What that defense actually did was hunt: five sacks, 14 quarterback hits, and two Talanoa Hufanga interceptions, the first a 66-yard pick-six at 4:49 that gave Denver its first lead of the night. Bo Nix ran in the winner from a yard out with 47 seconds left. Puka Nacua never played. Cashed by 6.5 on a half-right thesis.

Denver is a home underdog coming off a win, which is usually where the market is telling on itself. The Broncos held Jacksonville to 268 yards and 5-of-13 on third down, and that defense has now looked like last year's third-ranked unit for a full game after a bad opener in Kansas City. Los Angeles has 73% of the money and the line hasn't moved a half point off -2.5, so the book is content to keep taking Rams tickets at the same price. Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams were excellent against the Giants, 195 yards and two scores for Adams, but that was against a team that lost its quarterback mid-game, and the Rams are still without Myles Garrett with Puka Nacua only questionable. Altitude, a rested defense, and less than a field goal.