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Picks against the spread

Week 3 picks · Cashed

Drake Maye's three turnovers hand Jaguars -3 a 26-point cover

Cashed

Right side, wrong reason, and I'll say so plainly. I leaned on a line move and on New England's defense, which was an argument for the other team. What actually happened is Drake Maye threw two interceptions, lost a fumble and got benched in the fourth quarter. Travis Hunter picked him off in the end zone on third-and-goal. Trevor Lawrence needed only 182 yards on 29 attempts to throw three touchdowns, one of them to Jakobi Meyers against his old team. Jacksonville 35, New England 6, a cover by 26 I did not earn.

win Jaguars 35, Patriots 6

The pick: Jaguars -3 vs Patriots

The case before kickoff

The two feeds disagree on which way the tickets are going, so treat the read as soft. ScoresAndOdds has 65% of bets on New England with the money split evenly, and the line moved from -2.5 through 3 toward Jacksonville, which is the version I'm siding with. The argument against it is that Jacksonville's Week 1 blowout of Cleveland looks like a mirage now, because they went to Denver and gave up 14 unanswered in the fourth quarter to lose 20-13. New England just held Pittsburgh to three points with Elijah Ponder generating a sack and a scoop-and-score, and they're doing it without A.J. Brown. Low-conviction lean on the home team and the line move, and I'd understand taking the other side.

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