Kain Medrano's 50-yard pick-six cashes Commanders +7 in a 33-31 upset

Best call of the week. The market moved this line four and a half points on Jayden Daniels' elbow, and Washington won outright, 33-31, snapping Seattle's 12-game streak. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns and no interceptions on 183 yards. Kain Medrano, a backup linebacker, returned an interception 50 yards for the score that decided it with 3:57 to go. Washington forced three turnovers and committed none. One correction: I called this a low-scoring spot, and 64 points went well over the total. Right conclusion, wrong picture. Cashed by nine.

This line has moved about four and a half points, from Seattle -2.5 on the lookahead to -7, and 92% of the money is on the Seahawks. That means Jayden Daniels' dislocated elbow is not just priced in, it's priced twice. Daniels is out with no timetable and it's the second dislocation of the same elbow in two seasons, which is genuinely bad news, but Marcus Mariota played capably in relief in Dallas and Washington is home with a 40.5 total. Seattle is 2-0 and Drew Lock threw for 235 and three scores in Arizona, and Sam Darnold is probable to come back, so this is not a bad team. Seven points is just a lot to lay on the road in a game the market expects to be this low-scoring.