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Picks against the spread

Week 4 picks · Mea culpa

Oluokun's red-zone interception sinks Bengals -2.5 in Cincinnati

Mea culpa

Fading the public money was the only argument here, and it was a bad one. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards on 54 attempts and still lost, because two interceptions decided it. Jourdan Lewis returned the first 45 yards to set up Trevor Lawrence's touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr., and Foyesade Oluokun picked him off at the Jacksonville 10 early in the fourth with Cincinnati driving for the lead. Jaguars 22, Bengals 17, a 7.5-point miss. Jacksonville took 13 penalties for 125 yards and won anyway.

loss Jaguars 22, Bengals 17

The pick: Bengals -2.5 vs Jaguars

The case before kickoff

This is the closest thing on the board to a pure market read, so it gets the lowest conviction. Jacksonville has most of the tickets and most of the money, and the line has bounced between -2 and -2.5 for three days without moving toward the Jaguars, with the juice on Cincinnati. The football side is thin: Cincinnati is down to its fourth and fifth receivers after Andrei Iosivas went to IR and Colbie Young was ruled out, which doesn't touch the top of the passing game, and Jacksonville arrives without a fantasy-relevant injury. Coin flip with the home team.

Reporting: Jaguars.com game report · Bengals.com recap and postgame notes · NBC Sports Pro Football Talk · NFL.com What We Learned

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