NFL Week 4 picks against the spread, 2026

Cleveland's starting center, Elgton Jenkins, is out with a concussion, and guard Teven Jenkins (back) is out too, though rookie Austin Barber had already taken that job. Losing the center on a short week matters most in a game totaled at 38.5, where a couple of busted protections or stuffed runs decide it. Pittsburgh has absences of its own, with cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (back) and running back Rico Dowdle (toe) ruled out, but Jaylen Warren already carried the backfield without Dowdle in Week 3. The number has drifted from 2.5 toward 3 since Sunday. Laying less than a field goal with the more intact line is the side.

Jayden Daniels was a limited participant Wednesday with the dislocated elbow, so there is a real chance he plays, and a +3.5 built around Marcus Mariota doesn't price that in. If Mariota starts, the hook over the key number still matters in a game totaled in the high 40s. The honest counterweight is Washington's list: guard Sam Cosmi (concussion) and safety Nick Cross (illness, didn't travel) are out, and running back Rachaad White (shoulder) didn't practice, which is why the team signed Austin Ekeler. Indianapolis lost Alec Pierce to IR. A lean on the hook and the quarterback upside, nothing more.

Since Jaxson Dart went down on the first possession in Week 2, the Giants have scored 6 points against the Rams and 12 against Tennessee, the 12 on four field goals. That's two games of Jameis Winston without a touchdown, and Dart's knee surgery means this is the offense for the rest of the regular season. Arizona comes in without a fantasy-relevant injury. The market has already moved five points since the reopen, so this isn't early, but the move is pricing a real quarterback change rather than a single result, and laying under a field goal against an offense that can't finish drives is still the right side.

New England's Wednesday report reads like a depth chart: cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder), defensive tackle Christian Barmore (shoulder) and right tackle Morgan Moses (foot) all missed practice, Drake Maye is practicing through a new injury to his throwing shoulder, and A.J. Brown is on IR with a high-ankle sprain. Buffalo's only notable entry is DJ Moore, limited with the shoulder. If Gonzalez and Moses are both out Sunday, the two most important matchups in the game, Buffalo's receivers against the Patriots' best corner and Buffalo's pass rush against the right side of their line, both tilt the same way. This holds below 7 and stops being a pick above it.

Caleb Williams still isn't practicing with the hamstring, so this is probably Case Keenum again, a backup laying more than a field goal. The Jets' quarterback has been the steadier of the two this season, but the supporting cast is thin: Breece Hall is week-to-week with the quad, Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor didn't practice Wednesday, and rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq was limited with a back issue. This is a bet on the hook and on Chicago's quarterback room, not on New York's offense. Low conviction.

Nico Collins returned to practice Wednesday, limited, after missing two games with the hamstring, and he is the whole difference in Houston's passing game with Jayden Higgins out for the year and Tank Dell on IR. Dallas is coming off a game in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, so it gets a long trip home before a road game. Both of those are real, but the case depends on Collins actually playing, which is why this is a lean. If Collins is ruled out Friday, I'd flip to the points.

This is the closest thing on the board to a pure market read, so it gets the lowest conviction. Jacksonville has most of the tickets and most of the money, and the line has bounced between -2 and -2.5 for three days without moving toward the Jaguars, with the juice on Cincinnati. The football side is thin: Cincinnati is down to its fourth and fifth receivers after Andrei Iosivas went to IR and Colbie Young was ruled out, which doesn't touch the top of the passing game, and Jacksonville arrives without a fantasy-relevant injury. Coin flip with the home team.

Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie, makes his first NFL start with Baker Mayfield out for at least three weeks with the dislocated thumb. Around him, Tampa's Wednesday report had guard Aaron Banks and center Jacob Monk out of practice on the interior line, edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Yaya Diaby out on the other side of the ball, and Chris Godwin (ankle) sitting too, a week after Jalen McMillan went to IR. Green Bay isn't healthy either, with Jayden Reed headed for neck surgery and Josh Jacobs still unavailable, but the gap between a first-time undrafted starter behind a patched interior and anyone else is the biggest single mismatch on the slate. The line has moved two points; it should have moved more.

Philadelphia's pass catchers are disappearing. DeVonta Smith didn't practice Wednesday with the hamstring he played through last week, Dallas Goedert is out for multiple weeks with an MCL sprain, rookie Eli Stowers is on IR, and the team signed Zach Ertz to fill the tight end spot. That leaves Dontayvion Wicks and a newly signed veteran tight end as the core of the passing game if Smith sits. The Rams go the other way: Sean McVay said he expects Puka Nacua back from the groin. The total has dropped from 46 to 43.5, and in a lower-scoring game a healthy set of receivers against a depleted one is worth the field goal.

Double digits in a game totaled at 42.5 is asking Baltimore to win something like 27-15, and the Ravens' two most important passing pieces are both on the report: Lamar Jackson was limited Wednesday with a back injury and Zay Flowers with the hamstring. Tennessee can't score much, and Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears both sat Wednesday with ankle injuries, so this needs Baltimore's offense to be less than full strength rather than Tennessee's to show up. That's a thin reason, which makes it a lean.

De'Von Achane tore his ACL in Week 3, which removes the only consistent source of offense from what NBC describes as the league's lowest-scoring unit. Minnesota has its own question, with Justin Jefferson sitting Wednesday with the ankle, though the early reports called it short-term. The number reopened at -10.5, dipped to -10, and came back after the Achane news, so some of this is priced. Laying double digits in a 38.5-point game is structurally uncomfortable, and if Jefferson is out I'd want this at -10 or lower.

San Francisco's receiver room is down to its depth chart. Mike Evans didn't practice Wednesday with a rib injury, Demarcus Robinson is out with a high-ankle sprain, De'Zhaun Stribling is on IR after ankle surgery, and Ricky Pearsall is done for the season, so the 49ers are leaning on Jacob Cowing behind McCaffrey and Kittle. They're also missing two defensive tackles, with Thompson ruled out and West on IR. Denver's report is close to clean: Jaylen Waddle, J.K. Dobbins and Marvin Mims all practiced fully, and pass rusher Dondrea Tillman (hamstring) is the main absence. A full field goal with the healthier team is the play.

Handicapped like any other game: the number is close to right, and the only reason to take the points is the half point past 4. The case for fading Las Vegas is real. The Raiders' three wins came against Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans, who are a combined 1-8, Jack Bech just went to IR, and Kansas City arrives with no fantasy-relevant injuries and Mahomes practicing fully. The case for the points is the hook and the venue, plus a Cousins-led offense that has been efficient all season. Spread money is split almost exactly down the middle. A low-conviction lean, not a fan's pick.

The Chargers' passing game keeps losing pieces. Ladd McConkey was limited Wednesday with a new foot injury, David Njoku is on IR with a fibula injury, Charlie Kolar is out after forearm surgery, Brenen Thompson is still sidelined, and running back Keaton Mitchell left practice in a boot. Seattle's only Wednesday absence was safety Ty Okada. The problem is the number: laying a full touchdown in a 42.5-point game is exactly the kind of spread this experiment faded in Week 1. The personnel says Seattle, the structure says caution, so it's a lean.

Carolina's Wednesday list hits both lines of scrimmage on offense: guard Damien Lewis (elbow) and tackle Monroe Freeling (concussion) didn't practice, receivers Jalen Coker (quad) and Xavier Legette (knee) sat, and running back Jonathon Brooks is on IR after core-muscle surgery. Bryce Young practiced fully after the knee scare. Detroit's only notable absence is Isiah Pacheco, who has been out all season. The hook is the worry, and the over has taken almost all the total money, but if Lewis and Freeling both miss, Detroit's front is the biggest mismatch on Sunday night.

New Orleans expects Travis Etienne to miss time with the aggravated hamstring, leaving Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller to split the backfield, and rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson is still on IR. Atlanta came out of Week 3 without a fantasy-relevant injury and has Michael Penix Jr. back under center. That's a short home favorite missing its lead back against a road dog with its quarterback and its full skill group. The number sits just under 3, which is why this is medium rather than ranked.