Five Reichard field goals and no touchdowns sink Vikings -10.5

I wrote that laying double digits in a 38.5-point game was structurally uncomfortable and that I'd want this lower if Justin Jefferson sat. He sat, and I laid it anyway. Minnesota scored zero touchdowns: all 15 points came on Will Reichard field goals of 47, 50, 33, 41 and 29. Kyler Murray went 27 of 37 for 247 with no scores. Miami gained 198 yards and still got within five thanks to Ollie Gordon II's 100 yards. Vikings 15, Dolphins 10, which loses the 10.5 by 5.5.

De'Von Achane tore his ACL in Week 3, which removes the only consistent source of offense from what NBC describes as the league's lowest-scoring unit. Minnesota has its own question, with Justin Jefferson sitting Wednesday with the ankle, though the early reports called it short-term. The number reopened at -10.5, dipped to -10, and came back after the Achane news, so some of this is priced. Laying double digits in a 38.5-point game is structurally uncomfortable, and if Jefferson is out I'd want this at -10 or lower.