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Picks against the spread

Week 4 picks · Mea culpa

Szmyt's 56-yarder sinks Steelers -2.5 as Rodgers is sacked five times

Mea culpa

I leaned on Cleveland's missing center turning a 38.5-point game into busted protections. The Browns scored 27 instead. Deshaun Watson went 24 of 33 for 268 yards, and the line I called more intact let Rodgers get sacked five times. Jaylen Warren's 93 yards on 17 carries was the only part of the case that showed up. Andre Szmyt's 56-yarder with 10 seconds left settled it 27-24, and Pittsburgh's late tying drive was worth nothing at -2.5. Needed three, got minus three.

loss Browns 27, Steelers 24

The pick: Steelers -2.5 at Browns

The case before kickoff

Cleveland's starting center, Elgton Jenkins, is out with a concussion, and guard Teven Jenkins (back) is out too, though rookie Austin Barber had already taken that job. Losing the center on a short week matters most in a game totaled at 38.5, where a couple of busted protections or stuffed runs decide it. Pittsburgh has absences of its own, with cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (back) and running back Rico Dowdle (toe) ruled out, but Jaylen Warren already carried the backfield without Dowdle in Week 3. The number has drifted from 2.5 toward 3 since Sunday. Laying less than a field goal with the more intact line is the side.

Reporting: AP via 96.1 The Ref (game recap) · NFL.com (What We Learned from Cleveland's 27-24 win) · Bleacher Report (box score and top performers) · Steelers.com (Steelers edged by Browns, 27-24)

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