Tyler Huntley's comeback and overtime sneak sink Falcons -3.5 after an 8-point lead

We got the quarterback right and the bet wrong. Tyler Huntley did start for Lamar Jackson, and we said that meant Derrick Henry carrying Baltimore into Atlanta's run defense. He did, 24 carries for 102 yards plus an 18-yard touchdown catch, behind 208 team rushing yards. That was supposed to be too slow to beat us by four. Instead Atlanta led 23-15 with 2:25 left, Huntley went 71 yards in six plays to Devontez Walker, and Henry ran in the two-point conversion. Baltimore won in overtime. Missed by 10.5.

Lamar Jackson sat out Wednesday with the sprained left ankle and Tyler Huntley took the first-team reps, so we're handicapping a Huntley start. That turns Baltimore from a team winning through the air (Jackson had 6 TDs and 1 INT) into one that has to lean on Derrick Henry (4.2 yards a carry, 7 TDs), and Atlanta's front is giving up 48 rushing yards a game. He'd be running behind a patched interior, too: Ethan Pocic is on IR, Andrew Vorhees didn't practice and rookie Olaivavega Ioane has moved to center. Going the other way, Michael Penix Jr. has steadied the offense in two starts (33 of 45, 479 yards), and Bijan Robinson (494 yards, 5.8 a carry) keeps Atlanta on schedule, which gives Drake London (20 catches, 370 yards) favorable downs against a secondary that had Marlon Humphrey out of practice. Atlanta's own tackle problem, Jake Matthews missing Wednesday's practice, matters less against a Baltimore rush with seven sacks and Trey Hendrickson sidelined. We make it Falcons -5.5; the market says -3.5. It's medium, not high, because -3.5 is the wrong side of 3, and it's off if Jackson gets upgraded.