Josh Allen's 121 rushing yards sink Rams -3 as Buffalo wins 37-34 in overtime

Buffalo won 37-34 in overtime, so laying three missed by six. The case leaned on Josh Allen's arm against a Rams pass defense allowing 154 a game, with James Cook and the clock filed as Buffalo's lesser path. The Bills ran for 234 yards, Allen 121 of them on 10 carries. Stafford was clean, 40 of 54 for 383 and three scores, no picks, and it didn't matter. Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis' 48-yard try in overtime, and that kick was only worth a push. Los Angeles never led by more than a point. Wrong side, no beat.

Josh Allen (6 TDs, 3 INTs) gets a Rams defense allowing 154 passing yards a game, and with DJ Moore's shoulder unresolved he's leaning on Dalton Kincaid (270 yards) and Khalil Shakir. Going the other way, Buffalo is giving up 274 passing yards a game with Christian Benford (toe) and Dee Alford (ankle) banged up, and that's a soft landing for Davante Adams (390 yards) and Puka Nacua. Greg Rousseau (six sacks) is the best pass rusher on the field with Myles Garrett on IR, but Matthew Stafford has been sacked only six times, so the protection edge sits with Los Angeles. Buffalo's cleanest path is James Cook (6.0 yards a carry) and the clock, and Stafford's six interceptions are why this stays small. We make it Rams -3.5; the market says -3. It's a lean: lay -3 only, not -3.5.