Jordan Love's 367 yards and a 5-0 turnover edge cash Packers +2 by 26

We took the home dog and then spent the writeup describing how Chicago would win the game. That part was nonsense. Jordan Love went 25 of 31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns behind the protection we called the worst in the league, Christian Watson caught six for 143 and two scores, and the Bears managed two sacks. Tyson Bagent threw two picks to Xavier McKinney and got benched, and Kyle Monangai, the back our Chicago read leaned on, was inactive. Turnovers 5-0 Green Bay. Covered by 26.

Chicago's pass rush against Green Bay's protection is the best matchup either team has: the Bears have 10 sacks and allow about -0.23 EPA per dropback, ESPN ranks the Packers' line last in pass block win rate, and three interior linemen (Aaron Banks, Jager Burton, Jacob Monk) missed Wednesday's practice. That would make Chicago a clear road favorite with Caleb Williams, but his hamstring has him out, so Tyson Bagent (25 of 34 against the Jets) makes his second start behind a line that had Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright all sit out Wednesday. Green Bay has the worst run game in the league by EPA per rush, so Jordan Love has to beat this rush from the pocket, and that's how the Bears win it. The likely Chicago plan is the one that beat the Jets, a heavy dose of Kyle Monangai (30 carries, 146 yards that day) against a defense that just lost Edgerrin Cooper to a torn Achilles, and that keeps the Bears' ceiling low for a road favorite. We make it Bears -1; the market says -2. It's a lean on the home dog and nothing more.