Malik Willis' late touchdown and a missed kick land Dolphins +7 on the number

We wrote that at +7 a seven-point Bengals win is a push, and Miami went out and delivered one. Willis ran it in from a yard out with 45 seconds left, Riley Patterson missed the extra point, and 31-25 turned into 31-24. Jordan Battle's two interceptions of Willis were the game. Ollie Gordon II carried 18 times for 88 yards and Miami out-rushed Cincinnati 217-117, which is why they were close enough to need that kick. Dead on the number, the one outcome we called by name.

Cincinnati's front is the biggest edge on the field: the Bengals have 14 sacks and pressure on 27.6% of dropbacks while blitzing only 16% of the time, and Malik Willis has been sacked 11 times on 114 dropbacks behind a line with right tackle Austin Jackson limited. The question is who Joe Burrow throws to. Ja'Marr Chase is still in the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins (25 catches, 401 yards) didn't practice Wednesday, so the two receivers best built to punish a Miami pass defense allowing 7.7 net yards per attempt may both be missing, leaving Dohnte Meyers, Mitchell Tinsley, Mike Gesicki and Chase Brown. Miami's offense is thin without De'Von Achane, but Ollie Gordon II (29 carries, 148 yards) gives it a way to stay on schedule against a Bengals run defense giving up more than four yards a carry. We make it Bengals -6; the market says -6.5. At +7 a seven-point Bengals win is a push, and that half-point is the play.