Braelon Allen's 116 yards and a muffed punt snap cash Jets -1.5 by 3.5

We'll take it, and we won't pretend it was clean. New York won 17-12 with its front sacking Deshaun Watson eight times, and Braelon Allen carried 24 times for 116 yards and the go-ahead score. The margin, though, came off a punt snap Cleveland couldn't handle at its own 42, which gave the Jets the ball at the 23, and a missed Andre Szmyt extra point off the upright. We also had Garrett Wilson erased by Denzel Ward, and he went for 104 and a touchdown. Covered by 3.5.

Cleveland has rebuilt its defense around man coverage and pressure, with 12 sacks in four games, but Mason Graham has four of them, and he and fellow tackle Mike Hall Jr. both missed Wednesday's practice. That takes the push out of the middle against Geno Smith, who is completing 72.6% of his passes; with the Browns playing more man than any defense in the league, Garrett Wilson will likely see Denzel Ward much of the day, which leaves Kenyon Sadiq and the backs working against linebackers underneath. The Jets' own problem is a front four that hasn't recorded a sack in two games, so Aaron Glenn will have to keep sending blitzes at Deshaun Watson, who has already taken 11 sacks behind a line that ranks 17th in ESPN's pass-block win rate. Neither side can run, with Breece Hall unlikely to play and Quinshon Judkins averaging 3.0 yards a carry, so this is a field-position game that turns on which quarterback holds up under pressure, and Smith has been the steadier one. We make it Jets -2; the market says -1.5, so this is a lean and nothing more.