Justin Herbert's five sacks and two giveaways sink Chargers +3.5 by 2.5

We nailed the premise and lost the bet. Denver did own the line of scrimmage, sacking Justin Herbert five times and holding him to 121 passing yards, and we wrote that this made a field goal the likeliest margin. It made six. A Zach Allen strip-sack and a Brandon Jones interception became two Lutz field goals in a 13-0 Denver fourth quarter. Los Angeles still had it at the Denver 40 on the last snap, where Ja'Quan McMillian sacked Herbert to end it. Right about everything but the number. Missed by 2.5.

Denver should win the line of scrimmage whenever Justin Herbert drops back. Rashawn Slater is out with a high ankle sprain, Joe Alt (neck), Trevor Penning (concussion) and Kayode Awosika (fibula) all missed Wednesday, and Herbert had already taken 12 sacks with six interceptions behind the healthy version of that line, so Zach Allen (three sacks) inside is a problem for whoever plays guard. The catch is that Denver's offense isn't built to win by margin: Bo Nix is at 60% completions and 6.1 yards an attempt with the second-shortest average throw in the league, and the Chargers' front leads ESPN's run stop win rate, so the Broncos likely have to dink their way down the field. Denver's secondary is short too, with Pat Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs) both missing Wednesday, which gives Herbert backups to throw at when he does get time. That adds up to a low-scoring game where a field goal is the likeliest margin. We make it Broncos -2.5; the market says -3.5. Take +3.5 only; at +3 there's no play.