Jahmyr Gibbs' 207 scrimmage yards sink Cardinals +5.5 in a 45-21 rout

We called this as close to a pass as a pick gets, and we should have passed. The shootout read was fine, 66 points, but Detroit never gave the ball back. Jahmyr Gibbs ran 25 times for 151 yards and two scores and finished with 207 from scrimmage, Jared Goff threw three touchdowns without an interception, and the Lions scored on seven straight possessions with zero turnovers. Arizona's answer was 47 Jacoby Brissett throws for 292 yards, which keeps a score respectable and never threatens a number. We missed by 18.5.

Both pass defenses are bad, and that decides how this game gets played. Arizona sits in the bottom three in EPA allowed per pass at both Sumer and nfelo, and it just lost left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. for the season and guard Isaiah Adams for this game, which hands Aidan Hutchinson and a Detroit rush with 15 sacks a patched-up left side. Jared Goff (1,214 yards, nine touchdowns, no interceptions) should move it on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, especially with Arizona's run defense good enough to push the Lions into throwing anyway. The other half cuts the margin: Detroit's secondary isn't much better (0.23 EPA per pass allowed at Sumer) and Rock Ya-Sin missed Wednesday, so Jacoby Brissett's short game to Trey McBride (33 catches on 45 targets) should be open too. That's a shootout Detroit probably wins by about what the number asks. We make it Lions -5.5, right where the market sits. This is as close to a pass as a pick gets: Cardinals at +5.5 or better, nothing at +5.