Cam Ward's 170 yards and no touchdowns sink Titans +7.5 in a 26-3 rout

The run-game read was right and the conclusion was wrong. Houston carried 27 times for 79 yards, 2.9 a pop, and still held the ball 34:39 and won by 23, because we never asked whether Tennessee could score at all. Cam Ward threw for 170 yards with no touchdowns, an interception and four sacks taken, and Carnell Tate, who we said would keep drives alive, caught one ball for six yards. Will Anderson Jr., the ankle we fretted over, had three sacks. We missed by 15.5.

Houston's path to a margin runs through C.J. Stroud, who has 1,141 yards and no interceptions and gets Nico Collins back against a Tennessee pass defense that sits in the bottom six in EPA allowed per dropback, with safety Amani Hooker in the concussion protocol, nickel Marcus Harris out of Wednesday's practice and Kevin Winston Jr. limited. The trouble is everything else a road favorite of more than a touchdown needs. Houston can't run, with David Montgomery at 2.7 yards a carry behind a line that ranks 28th in ESPN's run-block win rate, and Tennessee has been sound against the run, so the Texans can't salt away a lead. Their pass rush is the other question: Will Anderson Jr., with 4.5 of the team's 14 sacks and 11 quarterback hits, didn't practice Wednesday with an ankle, and Cam Ward has been sacked only six times because he throws short, under 7 air yards per attempt. Carnell Tate has 32 of Ward's targets and a 145-yard game in Baltimore, and a Houston pass defense that has been below average all year gives him room to keep drives alive. In a game totaled at 38, that's a lot to ask of an offense that can't run the clock. We make it Texans -7; the market says -7.5, and the half point over the key number is the whole case, so this is a lean.