Jaylen Warren's 188 scrimmage yards cash Steelers -2.5 as Watt goes quiet

Right conclusion, wrong mechanism. We built this on T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith against a bad Colts line, and the two of them finished with no sacks, Watt taking a finger to the eye and returning in a visor. Pittsburgh's edge turned out to be protection. Aaron Rodgers went 22 of 31 for 235 and three touchdowns behind one sack allowed, and Jaylen Warren piled up 188 scrimmage yards with an 80-yard catch and a 50-yard run. Indianapolis kicked five field goals and threw no touchdowns. Covered by 9.5.

The biggest gap in this game is up front. Pittsburgh's line wins 53% of its pass blocks, eighth in ESPN's metric, and gets an Indianapolis rush that ranks last at 35% and just lost Arden Key for three to four weeks, so Aaron Rodgers should have more time than usual to find DK Metcalf (33 targets) and his tight ends. Going the other way, T.J. Watt (4.5 sacks) and Alex Highsmith (3) face a Colts line that ranks 27th in pass-block win rate and a quarterback in Daniel Jones who has lost three fumbles in his last two games and is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt with Alec Pierce on injured reserve. Indianapolis will lean on Jonathan Taylor (353 yards, six touchdowns) and Tyler Warren underneath, and Pittsburgh is thin at corner with Joey Porter Jr. traded and Jamel Dean and Jalen Ramsey both missing Wednesday's practice, but this Colts passing game hasn't shown it can win outside. Jaylen Warren, at 5.6 yards a carry, also gets a Colts defense whose starting linebackers, Jaylon Carlies and Akeem Davis-Gaither, sat out Wednesday. We make it Steelers -2.5 and the market agrees, so this is the thinnest of leans, on the team that should win the line of scrimmage.