Drake Maye's 374 yards and four scores sink Raiders +3.5 in a 45-17 rout

We said this gets decided through the air and the team protecting its quarterback better was the road team. New England sacked Kirk Cousins three times, Drake Maye went down once, and Maye threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns at a 150.9 rating. Worse, we called this a game neither side could run, and the Patriots went for 165 yards at 5.3 a carry. Brock Bowers did his part with eight catches for 110 and a score. Nothing else did. We missed by 24.5, and there is no excuse in it.

Las Vegas has had multiple tight ends on the field about half the time, and in those sets Brock Bowers (16 catches, 202 yards in two games back, limited Wednesday with the knee) and a healthy Michael Mayer (20 catches) mostly draw Robert Spillane, Christian Elliss (chest, limited) and safeties Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson (shoulder, limited). New England has handled tight ends well on a small sample, so that's a fair fight, not a mismatch. Christian Gonzalez missed Week 4 and Wednesday's practice with a shoulder injury, and even healthy he's been used on outside receivers in spots (he matched DK Metcalf for 34 snaps in Week 2), not tight ends, so the likely plan if he plays is Gonzalez on Tre Tucker rather than Bowers. If he sits, with Carlton Davis (neck) also out of practice, Tucker (15 catches, 233 yards) gets Charles Woods or Marcus Jones, but with Jalen Nailor in concussion protocol and Jack Bech on IR, the other outside snaps go to Cody White (ankle, limited) and Dareke Young. The bigger edge is up front: Kirk Cousins (11 TDs, 4 INTs) has been sacked five times, and Kansas City didn't get to him once with Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) out and Caleb Rogers playing every snap at right guard. On the other side, a Raiders front with 12 sacks meets a Patriots line missing Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten, and Drake Maye has practiced fully through his right-shoulder listing but has been sacked 10 times and thrown seven interceptions. Neither team runs it well (Las Vegas averages 3.1 yards a carry), so this gets decided through the air, and the team protecting its quarterback better is the road team. We make it Patriots -3; the market says -3.5. That's a lean on the hook, nothing more. Take +3.5 only; at +3 it's a pass.