Tyler Shough's 96 yards and two picks cash Vikings -1.5 as the top play

Our number one play, and the right side for the wrong reason. We sold the blitz, and Minnesota got one sack all day, from Andrew Van Ginkel, with Dallas Turner shut out entirely. Coverage did the work instead. Byron Murphy Jr. picked Tyler Shough twice and held him to 96 yards and a 38.1 rating while New Orleans managed 142 total yards. The Aaron Jones half we nailed, 25 carries for 113 and a touchdown. Jonas Sanker's 87-yard fumble return tied it before we pulled away. Covered by 8.5.

This is the best defense in the league against a quarterback it should be able to rattle. Brian Flores has blitzed on 66.9% of dropbacks and the Vikings lead the NFL with a 39% pressure rate and 16 sacks, 5.5 of them from Dallas Turner, and the likely plan is more of the same against Tyler Shough, who has been sacked 12 times, has had Asim Richards at left tackle since Kelvin Banks Jr. went on IR, and was limited Wednesday with a non-throwing-hand injury. Chris Olave (35 catches, 491 yards) is the one Saint who can punish the blitz, but he has to win fast against a pass defense allowing 5.3 net yards per attempt. On the ground it's more lopsided: New Orleans gives up about five yards a carry, worst in the league, so Aaron Jones should carry the offense while Kyler Murray leans on T.J. Hockenson, who caught all 13 of his targets last week. Minnesota's own line is patched, with Donovan Jackson on IR and Christian Darrisaw in the concussion protocol, but a Saints rush with a 21.2% pressure rate isn't built to exploit it. We make it Vikings -3.5; the market says -2. Lay -1.5 only; at -2 it drops to a lean.