Isaiah Likely's reversed touchdown and a 27-27 tie cash Giants +3.5

Our second-ranked play, and we got there sideways. We said Washington had no run game, and they ran for 202 yards at 6.7 a carry with Jayden Daniels going for 103 and two long scores. We said the Giants' secondary would take the ball away, and it forced nothing. New York trailed 27-13 with 11:05 left and scored 14, including an Isaiah Likely touchdown that only counted after a replay reversal wiped out a Washington recovery in the end zone. Malik Nabers went 11 for 121. Covered by 3.5.

Jayden Daniels is back, practicing fully with a brace on his left elbow, and he'll have time to throw: Washington wins 58% of its pass blocks, third in the league, and the Giants have three sacks all season with Brian Burns lost to a torn ACL and Chauncey Golston out. What he may not have is anyone to throw to, because Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs, 53 targets between them, both sat out Wednesday with hamstrings, and a run game that ranks last in ESPN's run-block win rate, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 2.8 yards a carry, can't take the load. That leaves Antonio Williams, Dyami Brown and Treylon Burks against a Giants secondary that has six interceptions and allows 6.2 yards per attempt. On the other side, Washington has given up 11 touchdown passes and 30.5 points a game, and Isaiah Likely, Jameis Winston's top target with 35 looks, draws a linebacker pair in Frankie Luvu and Sonny Styles who were both limited with groin injuries. Malik Nabers' sore knee is the risk here, and Winston will throw his share of bad balls, but Washington doesn't have the receivers or the run game to pull away from a defense this sound against the pass. We make it Commanders -2.5; the market says -3.5, and holding the hook on the other side of the field goal is why this is our strongest play of the four.