Jaxon Smith-Njigba's late drop cashes 49ers +3 in a 32-29 outright win

San Francisco won it outright, 32-29, and we were wrong about how. Brock Purdy's sackless streak ended against Byron Murphy II, and Seattle's league-best rush got beaten anyway: Sam Darnold took five sacks and threw two interceptions among seven combined turnovers, all of them before the fourth quarter. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the man we said the 49ers had no answer for, went five for 102 and a touchdown, then dropped an open third-down throw on the final possession. Eddy Pineiro's kick at 1:56 won it. Covered by 6.

This is the league's best offense against one of its two best defenses, and the unit that decides it is the one in front of each quarterback. Brock Purdy hasn't been sacked in four games (11 touchdowns, one interception, 8.9 yards an attempt) and ESPN has San Francisco's line second in pass block win rate, while Sam Darnold has been pressured on a third of his dropbacks behind a Seattle line ESPN ranks 26th. Seattle's rush is the best in the league by win rate, so something gives, but the 49ers' protection has held up against everyone so far, and Seattle's bottom-five run game won't take any pressure off Darnold. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (32 catches, 481 yards, six touchdowns) is the one player San Francisco has no clean answer for, and that gets harder with safety Marques Sigle out and Nick Bosa doubtful with the calf. We make it Seahawks -2; the market says -3. Take +3 only; at +2.5 we pass.