Bucky Irving's 165 rushing yards cash Buccaneers +8.5 in a 24-16 upset

Tampa Bay won outright, 24-16, so the 8.5 points were decoration. Bucky Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards, including a 72-yard burst that opened the second half, and the Bucs piled up 241 rushing yards and 419 total. Jalon Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 and never turned it over. The ground game behind an undrafted rookie was exactly the plan, and Dallas obliged by giving up 17 unanswered points in the third quarter. Covered by 16.5. Right side, right reason.

Dallas's passing game is the best unit on the field: Dak Prescott is completing 70% with eight touchdowns and one interception, and CeeDee Lamb has 37 catches for 498 yards, now against a Tampa secondary without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and cornerback Benjamin Morrison. Todd Bowles has blitzed on 36.8% of dropbacks, and the likely plan is to keep sending extra rushers, because Tampa has only six sacks and an 18.4% pressure rate when it doesn't. Tampa's counter is the ground game: the Bucs allow about 3.2 yards a carry, and a Dallas defense with four sacks and no interceptions has struggled with every mobile quarterback it has faced, which is the profile of undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, who ran for 55 yards in his first start. Expect Bucky Irving and Daniels to carry the plan, shorten the game, and feed Cade Otton against a linebacker group without DeMarvion Overshown. We make it Cowboys -8.5; the market says -8.5. The Dallas side of our number rests mostly on Tampa's injured secondary, and we don't lay points off an opponent's injury list, so this is a lean on the points and nothing more.